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How to Bet the NFL’s New Protector of the Year Award That Will Honor the Best Offensive Lineman in 2025
> 49ersBen JohnsonNFL
> 49ersBen JohnsonNFL
The NFL was never beating the allegations that offensive linemen have no shot at winning awards like MVP and Offensive Player of the Year. So, the solution is to give them their own award category. Starting in the 2025 season, the NFL’s Protector of the Year Award will go to the top offensive lineman in the regular season.
So far, the top-rated sportsbooks are shying away from offering odds on this market, but we’ve found some from BetOnline, an offshore sportsbook that has Detroit’s Penei Sewell as the favorite with +300 odds. You can probably expect sportsbooks like FanDuel and DraftKings to offer odds the closer we get to the season and during the season.
It has been a few decades since the NFL’s announced a new award, and offensive linemen have always been harder to judge since they lack the traditional stats that skill players and defenders have. They also play a position that’s largely more about unit results than individual results.
But it does beg some questions about how this award will be judged:
- Will it be dominated by tackles – specifically left tackles – as they are still viewed as the most important offensive line position in protecting the quarterback’s blindside, or will centers and guards win it just as much?
- With the word ‘Protector’ in the title, will it be slanted towards pass protection excellence, or does run blocking matter just as much?
- Will the winner always be someone who is a first-team All-Pro selection that year? Remember, we just had an MVP (Josh Allen) who wasn’t the first-team All-Pro quarterback for 2024.
- Will linemen who play next to excellent teammates be penalized, or will this award take on an MVP approach where someone gets more credit for overcoming the quality of teammates around him?
- Will the winner have to come from an offense that is very successful and does the team have to make the playoffs as we often see with awards like MVP and Defensive Player of the Year?
Let’s answer some of these questions based on the information we have about the award, what might influence the winner this year, and a look at some of the top candidates by the odds and our earliest picks for who wins the inaugural NFL Protector of the Year award.
Table of Contents
NFL Protector of the Year Award – Who Votes for It and What Is the Criteria?
Maybe the most notable news about the Protector of the Year (POTY) award is that it won’t be voted on by the Associated Press, which is the 50-person panel of media members that vote on the other NFL awards (MVP, OPOY, DPOY, Coach of the Year, Comeback Player of the Year, and the best rookies) as well as who makes the All-Pro teams.
Instead, the POTY is going to be determined from a small panel of retired NFL legends who made their names on the offensive line.
Meet the Protector of the Year Voting Panel
This is reportedly the voting panel for POTY, comprised of six retired offensive linemen.
- Jason Kelce – Future Hall of Fame center from the Philadelphia Eagles, who was a 6-time All-Pro and Super Bowl winner. He’s now on ESPN and every other commercial on TV.
- LeCharles Bentley – A Pro Bowl center and guard with the Saints (2002-05), Bentley’s career was cut short by a torn patellar tendon in 2006. Since 2021, he’s been a senior advisor of player performance and development for the NFL.
- Shaun O’Hara – A 3-time Pro Bowl center for the Browns and Giants who helped New York win Super Bowl XLII against the undefeated Patriots. O’Hara has been featured for years on NFL Network as an analyst.
- Orlando Pace – The No. 1 pick in the 1997 draft, Orlando Pace is a Hall of Fame left tackle who won the Super Bowl with the 1999 Rams and was a 7-time Pro Bowl and 3-time All-Pro selection.
- Will Shields – A Hall of Fame right guard who is a member of the 2000s All-Decade Team after giving 14 stellar years to the Chiefs (1993-2006). He is a Community Central South Director for NFL Legends today.
- Andrew Whitworth – He’s a 4-time Pro Bowl and 2-time All-Pro left tackle for the Bengals and Rams, winning the Super Bowl in his final game with the 2021 Rams. He’s the analyst on Thursday Night Football who always wears a hoodie and blazer combo.
If this is the full panel, the first thing that stands out is that it’s only six people, so that’s not good for breaking a 3-3 tie. Hopefully, they’ll come to an agreement to just declare one winner each season, as a tie is always pretty lame for an award.
But there’s also not much of a left tackle bias here, as only 2-of-6 voters were tackles, so that’s good news for guards and centers who want to win the award, as they should get respect from Kelce, Bentley, O’Hara, and Shields.
But it’s just good to see that you’ll have talented linemen who should be in a better position to judge how linemen are playing this season, as that’s probably the position they’re focusing on anyway. That beats an AP voter like Dan Orlovsky or Emmanuel Acho trying to push Joe Burrow for MVP because of “swagger” or to force a MVP on Josh Allen because “he’s never won one before” like what happened last year.
Speaking of Buffalo, current Bills left tackle Dion Dawkins was the active lineman spearheading this award forward. He got a lot of support from Whitworth, who helped get the ball rolling to make it an official NFL award this season. “The Protector of the Year isn’t just about stats – it’s about the mindset, grit, and leadership it takes to be the foundation of a football team. It’s time the men who lead, protect, and never ask for credit are recognized as the backbone of this game,” said Whitworth in May.
As an active player, Dawkins will not be on the panel or allowed to have a vote in who wins the award.
What Is the Protector of the Year Award Criteria?
Before you think there won’t be any stats looked at for this award, think again. There was some voting criteria released that the panel will meet quarterly to consider to determine the five most deserving candidates for POTY before choosing their award winner at the end of the season.
Here is the noted criteria from the NFL’s official release of the award in May:
- Skill Metrics: Pass-block win rate, run-block win rate, penalties allowed, sacks allowed, helmet contact
- Impact: Contribution to the team’s offensive success (e.g., total rushing yards, QB protection stats)
- Leadership: Display of leadership, teamwork, and consistency on and off the field
- Durability: Minimum number of snaps, games played
- Strength of Opponent: Success vs. high-performing defenders
They did not disclose how many snaps or games a player should have to play to qualify for it the way the NBA has imposed a minimum game restriction for its award, but this seems like a fair thing to do.
Where things could get dicey is factoring in the strength of the opponent, but that’s not bad in theory either. Shutting down an elite pass rusher like T.J. Watt or Myles Garrett is worthy of more praise than having a big game against a forgettable pass rusher, but that’s going to be up to the panel to argue about how much they choose to remember from the season.
Leadership always seems hard to quantify, but you have a couple of Walter Payton Man of the Year winners in this panel in Shields and Whitworth, so maybe they have a good sense for that sort of thing on the offensive line.
As for the stats and impact, it looks like they’ll use the win rate metrics for pass and run blocking. The only question is, will they be using ESPN’s data or some other source? I’m not sure what “helmet contact” means for a skill metric.
By making impact one of the five categories, it does seem like having a great year for a successful offense is going to be important, but that could present some interesting dilemmas.
For example, left tackle Joe Thomas is as decorated as any offensive lineman in the 21st century, yet the Browns really only had one good season and offense in his rookie season in 2007. Despite being a 10-time Pro Bowler and 6-time All-Pro, it’s quite possible Thomas would never have won POTY in his career if they had it and used this impact and team performance metric against him. Similar things could have been said in the past about Anthony Munoz (Bengals) and Jonathan Ogden (Ravens).
These were the five offensive linemen named first-team All-Pro for the 2024 season, and all five played for playoff teams:
- Left tackle – Tristan Wirfs (Buccaneers)
- Left guard – Joe Thuney (Chiefs)
- Center – Creed Humphrey (Chiefs)
- Right guard – Quinn Meinerz (Broncos)
- Right tackle – Penei Sewell (Lions)
In the last five seasons (2020-24), the only first-team All-Pro offensive lineman who played for a non-playoff team and an underwhelming offense was left guard Joel Bitonio, who did it for the Browns in 2021 and 2022. He was unlikely to win a POTY award for either season.
Finally, it’s also worth noting there was zero mention of Pro Football Focus grades. If this was an AP award, you could likely get a good betting edge by looking at PFF grades during the season to dictate how those 50 voters, like Chris Simms, Acho, and Orlovsky, might vote.
But with six retired linemen doing the voting, they may disregard PFF and go with their own eye test and gut. PFF has a history of showing a bias towards certain players in their grades, including one of the earliest examples along the offensive line with their excessive love for Evan Mathis, a journeyman guard who played for six teams in 12 seasons that you would have thought was a first-ballot HOFer if you looked at his PFF grades.
However, with six retired offensive linemen doing the voting instead of 50 media members pressed for time, PFF grades may not mean a thing for the POTY award.
2025 NFL Protector of the Year Award Candidates with the Best Odds
For reference, you can find odds for 2025 POTY at BetOnline. For what it’s worth, the top six players with odds of +1200 or better are all tackles. We are going to briefly run through the outlook for the 10 players with the best odds (better than +2000) to win the award below.
RT Penei Sewell, Lions (+300)
Since he was drafted high in 2021, Penei Sewell has been considered an elite right tackle. He very well could have won this award if it was introduced in 2024 after the Lions had a stellar 15-2 season led by their offense.
For 2025, Sewell will have an argument that he deserves it if his game stays in top shape after the Lions lost offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and center Frank Ragnow retired.
LT Tristan Wirfs, Buccaneers (+800)
A 2020 first-round pick, Tristan Wirfs has been the other elite tackle to enter the NFL this decade along with Sewell. He’s already excelled after making the change from right to left tackle in 2023, as Baker Mayfield has been very comfortable playing with him. The Tampa Bay offense was lethal at times last year, including the best game anyone had against Philadelphia’s defense.
With so much talent for the passing and running game in Tampa, Wirfs could be part of another special season. But like the Lions, the Bucs lost their play caller (Liam Coen) to a head coaching job, and there’s always pressure to stay on top of a division.
LT Trent Williams, 49ers (+900)
He’s going on 37 years old, but the injury last year is the only thing that stopped Trent Williams from going to his 12th-straight Pro Bowl. He should be a favorite to win this award this year, as it’s not like the 49ers could have any more offensive injuries than they had in 2024, which sunk the team’s season.
Combine the healthy returns of Christian McCaffrey and Brandon Aiyuk with an easy schedule, and the 49ers should be in a great position to bounce back in a big way this year, with Williams leading the way up front.
RT Lane Johnson, Eagles (+900)
At 35, Lane Johnson is still going strong for the Eagles at right tackle. He’s part of what is considered the best line in football, maybe the most talented offensive roster in the league right now, and the Eagles are a favorite to repeat as champs.
He also has his buddy Jason Kelce on the voting panel, but he has stiff competition in younger players like Sewell and Wirfs to contend with first.
LT Dion Dawkins, Bills (+1200)
Dion Dawkins has made the Pro Bowl four years in a row, but he has yet to make an All-Pro team, which feels like something you’ll likely have to do to win this award. But we’ll see after the Bills had their best offensive line of the Josh Allen era last season.
However, it would look a bit fishy if Dawkins won the inaugural award that he helped push for the creation of in the NFL.
LT Rashawn Slater, Chargers (+1200)
Is this what the left tackle bias looks like? Rashawn Slater has +1200 odds while teammate Joe Alt, who plays right tackle, has +5000 odds at BetOnline. There’s a chance Alt could make a big leap in Year 2, but Slater is the more accomplished veteran here.
RG Quinn Meinerz, Broncos (+1400)
The highest-ranked interior lineman is a surprising name in right guard Quinn Meinerz, who had his breakout season in Year 4 with Denver last year. It helped that Bo Nix came along and played well for a rookie quarterback to give the Denver offense some recognition after a slow start to the season.
But for Meinerz to gain enough momentum to beat out the more household names, it’d probably take a dynamic Denver offensive season that overtakes the Chiefs in the AFC West for him to realistically win this award.
LT Jordan Mailata, Eagles (+1400)
The Eagles found a hidden gem in the seventh round with Mailata in 2018. He’s their starting left tackle and a Super Bowl champion, but this might be our first case of asking if you get penalized for POTY by playing with too many great linemen, as he’s not even the offensive tackle with the highest odds on the Eagles this year.
LT Laremy Tunsil, Commanders (+1400)
I’m not sure Laremy Tunsil has lived up to the draft hype, but he is a 5-time Pro Bowl left tackle, and the league isn’t producing many of those anymore. That’s why you see some of the top tackles in the game are still the old timers like Trent Williams and Lane Johnson, and even Tunsil is going on 31 this season as a 2016 draft pick.
But he’s in Washington after a trade from Houston, which can be a very good thing if Jayden Daniels lives up to his all-time best rookie season and has this team in contention for a Super Bowl run. Tunsil should be an improvement for this dynamic offense at left tackle.
C Creed Humphrey, Chiefs (+1600)
The only center this high, Creed Humphrey, is coming off his first All-Pro season as the player who snaps the ball to Patrick Mahomes. That’ll get you a lot of attention, but you have to wonder if a center is at a big disadvantage for this award since they won’t draw those elite defensive assignments like facing Maxx Crosby, Nick Bosa, T.J. Watt, Myles Garrett, etc., from the edge.
But maybe the Chiefs look to air it out down the field more this season, and they’ll hopefully have more stability on the line after moving Joe Thuney from guard to left tackle late last season.
Conclusion: Best Bets for 2025 NFL Protector of the Year Award
If I was placing bets on this award today, I think Penei Sewell is a very good choice as the odds-on favorite, given the narrative of Detroit’s weakened offense after losing their play caller and center. So, if Sewell retains his elite level of play and the offense is still very productive and multi-talented, then he’s got a great shot to win this inaugural award.
I also like Trent Williams a lot in San Francisco, as the stars are aligned for that offense to bounce back quickly with better health and so many favorable games on the schedule. He’s still by far the best lineman on that team, something you couldn’t say about anyone on the Eagles.
The other player I’d be sprinkling in bets for is Laremy Tunsil in Washington as maybe it helps his case if he goes to a new team and elevates them to an even greater season than they had last year. I also have high (read: MVP) hopes for what Jayden Daniels does this year, so getting an elite season out of Tunsil could fit right in with that narrative.
Again, it’s been a long time since the NFL’s introduced a new, competitive award like this. We’ll need some years of data to spot any trends and see if rookies (Will Campbell is +2500 in New England in a Mike Vrabel offense) can win it, if players going to new teams and working out well (Joe Thuney with Ben Johnson’s Chicago offense is +2200) can win it, or if it’s chalk for the elite veterans in their prime (Sewell or Wirfs).
One comforting thing about this award is that, since it’s the offensive linemen, ESPN’s Stephen A. Smith is unlikely to get too animated in debating it on TV. This one’s for the big men in the trenches, and I don’t mean Kendrick Perkins.
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