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2025 NFL Quarterback Rankings: This Is Still Patrick Mahomes’ League

The Fourth of July is Friday, and nothing is more American than arguing over the ranking of NFL quarterbacks in July. As we get the furthest away from the Super Bowl before the new season arrives, this is the time of year where Dave08675309 with 8 followers on X/Twitter shines by telling you that Patrick Mahomes is in fact a bum quarterback.

Or it could be another random ‘Dave’ with slightly more followers, who likely has a zip code somewhere in the proximity of Cincinnati, Buffalo, or Baltimore.

The hate for the Chiefs’ success got so strong last season when they were attempting the first Super Bowl three-peat that many fabricated an officiating controversy – evidence be damned.

In the end, many got what they wanted with the Chiefs getting blown out in Super Bowl 59 by the Eagles. But that one game doesn’t magically make Super Bowl MVP Jalen Hurts the best quarterback in the NFL now. It also certainly shouldn’t drop Mahomes from the top where he belongs until someone truly dethrones him.

When I posted my quarterback tiers and rankings one year ago, I gave Mahomes the top tier all to himself. In updating the rankings for 2025, I’m keeping him there even if there are more challengers directly below him, slowly closing the gap.

But there is a whole cottage industry these days of pumping out takes to say Mahomes isn’t the best quarterback. I guess that’s what gets clicks in the summer.

I don’t know what kind of music Mahomes listens to, but “Forgot About Dre” by Dr. Dre and Eminem should be one of his favorite songs as it is very relatable to where he is in his career.

Nowadays, everybody wanna talk like they got somethin’ to say

But nothin’ comes out when they move their lips

Just a bunch of gibberish

And m************ act like they forgot about Dre

You guys are going to keep messing around and turn Pat back into the old Pat. More downfield shots and quick touchdown strikes. Is that what makes him great, or is it the way he adapts to whatever team is around him and has yet to miss an AFC Championship Game in seven years?

I think it’s time for a refresher on why Mahomes is his own tier as well as the rest of the quarterback rankings and tiers for the 2025 season.

Tier 1 Quarterbacks: Patrick Mahomes

After finishing sixth in MVP voting in 2024, it seems that many really did forget about Pat last season, or they weren’t being truthful or consistent about their “stats aren’t everything” take as we’ve never seen a team go 15-1 with starters quite like the 2024 Chiefs did.

1. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

Most can agree the three best quarterbacks in the NFL today are Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Josh Allen. The beauty of this list is all three became weekly starters in the 2018 season, so there’s no real gap in the competition they’ve faced, the rules they’ve played under, and they also share the same conference.

This is rare as Joe Montana entered the NFL four years before Dan Marino and John Elway did. Peyton Manning had three years as a starter under his belt before anyone heard of Tom Brady in 2001, which is when Drew Brees was drafted, and then Ben Roethlisberger (2004) and Aaron Rodgers (full-time starter in 2008) came even later, so they were always on different timelines in their careers even if they made up a golden era of passers.

KANSAS CITY, MO - AUGUST 10: Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs runs up field during the first half against the Cincinnati Bengals at Arrowhead Stadium on August 10, 2019 in Kansas City, Missouri.
(Photo by Peter G. Aiken/Getty Images)

But you can use “since 2018” as a great reference point for this era of the NFL, thanks to these three quarterbacks. If you go back to 2018 and run through the seasons year by year, you should also see why Mahomes is in his own tier and is competing for the title of the greatest to ever do it as he’s had the best 8-year start to a career in NFL history for a quarterback.

No matter what one-year statistical differences you can quote for Mahomes in comparison to Jackson and Allen, the lead he’s built up on his peers since 2018 is so significant that he would need multiple down years to fall back to their level. Last I checked, going 1-1 in the Super Bowl and ranking No. 8 in QBR in 2023 and 2024 doesn’t constitute as much of a down year. Not when your peers can’t even figure out one path to the Super Bowl, let alone five uniquely different ones.

2018: In arguably the greatest first year as a starter in NFL history, Mahomes threw 50 touchdown passes and 5,097 yards to win his first MVP award. Mahomes started so hot that he scored at least 23 points in his first 23 starts, a record for any quarterback at any point in their career. He also threw for at least 240 yards in his first 25 starts before he dislocated his kneecap in 2019, another streak that ties Drew Brees for the all-time record.

Mahomes lost the AFC Championship Game at home in 2018 to the Patriots despite a 31-point second half and a lead in the final minute. He even forced overtime with a late field goal after getting the ball back with 32 seconds, but the Chiefs never saw it again as the Patriots won the coin toss and the game.

2019: While that fluke kneecap injury on a quarterback sneak in Denver changed the trajectory of his career as Andy Reid won’t allow him to run the most effective short-yardage play anymore, it only knocked him out for two full games. Mahomes returned and was able to notch big wins that season over Baltimore and New England, who both lost in the playoffs to underdog Tennessee. In the playoffs, the Chiefs trailed by double digits in all three rounds and still won each game by double digits (another record) as Mahomes claimed his first Super Bowl MVP and was the new face of the NFL.

2020: Mahomes finished 14-1 as a starter with 38 touchdowns to 6 interceptions in the pandemic season. He mastered the four-minute offense that season as the Chiefs won a record seven straight games by 1-7 points. He was 3-0 against the Ravens and Bills that year, but after Eric Fisher tore his Achilles late in the AFC Championship Game, the Chiefs played musical chairs with their offensive line in Super Bowl LV, and Mahomes was pressured 29 times in the 31-9 loss.

2021: The Chiefs had a slow start with a terrible defense meshing with a snake-bitten offense, with turnovers on a lot of tipped balls. Mahomes had an 8-game slump during this season before turning it on late with the highlight of the year being the “13 Seconds” win over Buffalo in the divisional round, where Mahomes tied the game with two completions before the long touchdown drive in overtime. But in the AFC Championship Game against Cincinnati, the Chiefs blew a 21-3 lead and Mahomes played his worst half of the season, fittingly ending after a deflected interception in overtime.

2022: After the Chiefs traded Tyreek Hill and went with a young, middling defense, Mahomes still led the Chiefs to the best record and No. 1 offense/passing offense to win his second MVP award. After suffering a high-ankle sprain in the first quarter of the first playoff game, Mahomes still led the Chiefs to their second Super Bowl, outdueling Joe Burrow in the title game rematch, then erasing a 10-point deficit in the Super Bowl against the Eagles in a 38-35 win with a game-winning field goal drive in both games to win his second Super Bowl MVP. He was the fastest player to win multiple MVPs and Super Bowls, doing so in his sixth season.

2023: Despite the mistake-prone receivers (Kadarius Toney and Marquez Valdes-Scantling) that killed the Chiefs in losses to the Lions, Eagles, and Bills, Mahomes helped the Chiefs to a No. 3 seed thanks to an improved defense. In the playoffs, he won one of the coldest games ever against Miami, cranked up the offense on the road in Buffalo for his first road playoff game, then outplayed Jackson’s top-ranked defense in the championship game before another late rally against the 49ers in the Super Bowl, delivering the only walk-off touchdown pass to win a championship in NFL history for his third ring and Super Bowl MVP.

2024: Despite playing most of the season without his top two wide receivers and going through four left tackles, the Chiefs still finished 15-1 with starters, as Mahomes excelled on third down and led seven game-winning drives. He again shredded Buffalo’s defense in the title game, but the experiment of playing a guard at left tackle backfired in the Super Bowl as the Eagles destroyed the Chiefs in a 40-22 rout that was 34-0 in the third quarter.

Compared to any quarterback in NFL history, Mahomes has shown an unmatched ability to adapt to his surroundings and lead his team to AFC Championship Games and Super Bowls.

  • He does it whether the defense is terrible (2018), below average (2021), middling (2019-20), or great (2023).
  • He’s done it in a high-flying vertical offense (2018-19) while having arguably more success in a quick-and-short passing game (2022-24), taking what the defense gives him after the way defenses adjusted to KC following Super Bowl LV.
  • He’s done it with loaded receivers (2018-21) and he’s done it with random groups consisting of washed veterans, rookies, and double agents that try to sabotage him like MVS running backwards in the Super Bowl in overtime (2022-24).
  • He’s started five Super Bowls with five different left tackles, and the only times he lost were when they played multiple players out of position, including a left guard at left tackle in 2024.
  • He’s won a Super Bowl as a No. 1 seed (2022), a No. 2 seed (2019), and a No. 3 seed (2023) that had to beat Buffalo and Baltimore on the road as an underdog in consecutive weeks.
  • He’s done it with style points (2019), he’s grinded it out (2023), and he’s shown he can master the four-minute offense (2020) and drive engineering on third down (2024) with the best of them.

He’s also doing this at the expense of his greatest peers, Jackson and Allen, who play for Buffalo and Baltimore teams that are among the most prolific over a 6-year span in NFL history despite not getting to a single Super Bowl because the Chiefs have played in 5-of-6 since 2019.

Here’s the updated list for the largest team scoring differential since 2019 (regular season only):

  • Buffalo Bills +841 (no Super Bowls; 0-4 in playoffs vs. Chiefs)
  • Baltimore Ravens +804 (no Super Bowls; 1-5 vs. Chiefs)
  • Kansas City Chiefs +633 (3-2 in Super Bowls; 5-0 in playoffs vs. Bills/Ravens)
  • San Francisco 49ers +536 (0-2 in Super Bowl vs. Chiefs)

Even if we remove all five of Mahomes’ Super Bowl runs and leave him with two seasons (2018 and 2021), that still gives him a stronger MVP season than Jackson or Allen have ever had, and that still means he twice got closer to a Super Bowl than they ever have. Overtime of the AFC Championship Game beats anything Allen and Jackson have done.

So, people can hype up boutique stats that show Mahomes below Allen or Jackson in a season or two over the last seven years. But the fact is neither has come close to outplaying Mahomes over the long haul, nor have they ever finished a season closer to the Super Bowl than he has despite having teams that rank higher in defense and starting field position and adding pieces like Stefon Diggs and Derrick Henry, or more consistency at left tackle and more help in the running game.

You come at the king, you best not miss.

The Bills and Ravens continue to miss their opportunities to beat the Chiefs when it counts. Not in October and November either – the playoffs as the Chiefs showed last year they can reverse the script in January and beat you.

In fact, the NFC teams have shown better skill at taking on the Chiefs in big games as Kansas City has trailed by double digits in every Super Bowl as those teams can usually rush the passer without blitzing. The blueprint to beating Mahomes is to make him hold the ball longer than he wants to and throw off the timing of that offense, which is easier to do since 2023 when his best receivers are a slower Travis Kelce and rookie wide receivers.

People love talking about YAC and the Chiefs throwing screen passes, but they should be thanking Andy Reid every time he calls those plays as they have been a detriment to Kansas City’s offense the last two years, rarely working and often putting them behind the sticks. Kansas City has ranked 22nd and 29th in YAC over expected per completion the last two years according to NextGenStats data.

The window to beat the Chiefs was these last few years before they find the next weapons for Mahomes, and only the Eagles really took advantage of it. But for Kansas City’s sake, they hopefully awoke a demon in Mahomes to get back to throwing the ball down the field more and going on the attack. When he threw that late touchdown bomb to Xavier Worthy in the Super bowl, it was only the fourth pass all year he attempted like that to the deep middle to Worthy, the speedster they drafted.

It doesn’t look like Rashee Rice or Worthy will be facing suspensions for their off-field issues, so Mahomes should have his most talented wide receiver duo in years as neither will be a rookie anymore in 2025. It’s time to focus the offense around them and start phasing out a 36-year-old Kelce, who is likely going to retire after this season.

Get back on the attack and open up more space underneath for those screens and short passes to work better. The Chiefs have done a great job of learning from past playoff losses and adapting before. They’ll need to do it again.

But bet against Mahomes figuring it out at your own risk. Even someone like Ben Roethlisberger recently said that Mahomes is just entering out of his prime.

Really? Out of his prime before his 30th birthday? Mahomes should have more motivation than ever to get back in the MVP race for 2025. But at the end of the day, his standard is even higher than that.

Until one of these other quarterbacks can even put together one Super Bowl run before Mahomes launches a sixth, we need to stop pretending this is that close or they’re in the same tier.

Allen and Jackson play for the role of the best quarterback that season. Mahomes is already years into playing for the title of the best of all time.

Anything else is just a bunch of EPA gibberish.

Tier 2 Quarterbacks: The Challengers (AKA The Bridesmaids)

Our Tier 2 quarterbacks have been expanded to the six players in the best position to slow down the success of Mahomes as his top challengers, who are all under 30 years old. You could also call them The Bridesmaids, as their fans feverishly fight online for the claim of second best.

2. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens

Relitigating the last two MVP cases is not something I’m really up to this morning. But it’s safe to say we have proof that several AP voters who voted Lamar Jackson the All-Pro (best) quarterback in 2024 changed their MVP vote to Josh Allen out of sympathy that Allen’s never won the award and Jackson would have had a third after a precarious win in 2023 when no one else really stood out.

That only craps on 60 years of voting standards and all logic as how could the best quarterback not be the most valuable one? It’s the most important position. But what else would you expect when the likes of Emmanuel Acho, Dan Orlovsky, Chris Simms, and Jim Miller were the ones who pushed Allen over the top to win by a 27-23 vote?

The fact is, Lamar Jackson had his best season in 2024. He showed real growth as a passer as he used his mobility to his advantage to get more favorable throwing lanes than ever before. Derrick Henry’s presence helped, but running backs also don’t magically average a career-high 5.9 yards per carry at 30-31 years old, so Jackson deserves some credit for that, too.

What wasn’t at its best last year was the Baltimore defense, which is why the team dropped those games to the Raiders (blown 10-point lead) and Browns (Kyle Hamilton had a dropped game-ending interception).

But Jackson was at his best last year, and I had to take a year-by-year approach since 2018, like I did with Mahomes above, to ultimately decide if it should be Jackson or Allen at No. 2.

FOXBOROUGH, MASSACHUSETTS - SEPTEMBER 25: Quarterback Lamar Jackson #8 of the Baltimore Ravens attempts a pass during the first half at Gillette Stadium on September 25, 2022 in Foxborough, Massachusetts
(Photo by Adam Glanzman/Getty Images)

Here’s the way I see the ultimate bridesmaid race right now:

2018: Jackson took over for Joe Flacco in the second half of the season, and while he wasn’t very good as a passer yet, he still did better than rookie Josh Allen, and his running impact was evident right away. Advantage to Lamar (1-0 Lamar).

2019: Jackson was incredible in this season with 36 touchdown passes while rushing for 1,206 yards as well in an all-time great dual-threat season to win his first MVP and All-Pro. Allen showed improvement but was still below average as a passer. Both quarterbacks lost in the playoffs with a shocking upset by Tennessee in Baltimore as the Ravens had Lamar drop back a record number of times. Huge advantage to Lamar (2-0 Lamar).

2020: The COVID year without crowds, Allen had his breakout season and arguably his most consistently great season to this day after the Bills added Stefon Diggs as his WR1. Allen had one of his best playoff wins ever against the Colts, then won a low-scoring battle with the Ravens in a game where Jackson threw a pick-six and was injured reaching for a bad snap. But Allen was erratic in the AFC title game in Kansas City. Still, advantage to Allen (2-1 Lamar).

2021: Allen was the MVP favorite until that brutal Jacksonville loss, then he fell off before rebounding with an incredible postseason where he lost the 13 Seconds Game in Kansas City, the closest he’s been to beating that team in January. Jackson had what I’d call his worst season as they were winning games with record-long field goals, and after Clyde Edwards-Helaire fumbled late. He was injured and did not finish the season. Advantage to Allen (2-2 tie).

2022: It’s another season where Allen blew up his MVP case with a bunch of turnovers against the Vikings in a shocking loss. He had an uninspiring postseason run too, barely scraping by the Dolphins and quickly getting crushed at home to the Bengals after the Damar Hamlin incident seemed to drain this team emotionally. Jackson was playing very well before another December injury ended his season. Slight advantage to Allen because of Jackson’s injury (3-2 Allen).

2023: While neither had a traditional MVP-caliber season, I think Jackson had the better season as he was great against a record number of winning teams on Baltimore’s schedule, and Allen actually lost five games to teams that didn’t make the playoffs this year. He also had a ton of turnovers, which led to OC Ken Dorsey getting fired halfway through the season. Allen played the Chiefs better in the playoffs than Lamar did, but both lost at home to them. Advantage to Lamar (3-3 tie).

2024: Jackson led one of the most explosive offenses in NFL history, as evident by his league-high yards per pass (8.8) and yards per rush (6.6). He was just 85 yards shy of the first 4,000 passing/1,000 rushing season. He did have 41 touchdowns to just 4 interceptions, and most of those picks hit a Raven first. Just a ridiculously efficient season that won just about every individual honor except for the AP’s MVP award, which went to Allen. But Jackson should have won it on top of his third All-Pro. Advantage Lamar (4-3 Lamar).

So, I think Lamar has been better in 4-of-7 seasons, but they are definitely close. Jackson’s injuries in 2021-22 put him behind some, and it used to be that his postseason play was the biggest difference between the two. It still may be, but I can’t act like he hasn’t shown progress these last two postseasons.

It wasn’t Jackson losing a fumble in scoring territory and dropping a game-tying 2-point conversion in Buffalo this year. That was tight end Mark Andrews, who had one of the worst quarters you’ll ever see in a playoff game. It was also Andrews who dropped a first down the play before a bad snap led to a Jackson fumble in that game.

But the fact is, Allen gets a lot of credit for beating up on No. 7 seeds, rookie/backup quarterbacks, and almost beating the Chiefs a couple of times. In his only two divisional round wins, both against the Ravens, he’s led his offense to 10 points in one (2020) and had 147 total yards of offense in the other (2024). That’s not impressive at all.

Granted, Jackson is going to have to do more than good wins against Houston and Pittsburgh teams, but he showed a lot of promise on the road in that comeback attempt against Buffalo. I think he’s getting more comfortable in the playoffs and could break through one of these years.

But one thing worth pointing out is the Ravens have been historically bad at forcing turnovers in the playoffs for Jackson. They have 2 takeaways in 8 games, which is unfathomable for a defense with the reputation of Baltimore.

It’d be nice to see an AFC Championship Game between the Bills and Ravens to settle this score and see which of these quarterbacks can finally get to a Super Bowl. But that would involve getting rid of the Chiefs, and don’t forget about the Bengals, who got to a Super Bowl in 2021 and eliminated Buffalo in 2022.

I like the direction Jackson is trending. I just wish he’d progress a little faster in the playoffs. But both of these teams are trying to defy the Five-Year Rule, where no team has ever won its first Super Bowl by starting the same quarterback for the same coach for more than five years. 2025 is already Year 8 for Jackson-Harbaugh and Allen-McDermott, so they are both trying to undo 60 years of history here.

That’s also a reminder of how historically great the Chiefs have been with Mahomes to keep relegating these teams to runners-up.

3. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

The good news is Josh Allen has his MVP award. The bad news is it should go down as a charity/DEI/lifetime achievement award as a few of the loudest voters couldn’t bring themselves to seeing Lamar win a third before Josh got his first. Tony Romo laid out that argument on TV in December, and sure enough, some voters took that path even though past seasons shouldn’t have any bearing.

But I hope we can put the MVP nonsense behind these teams this season as I think other quarterbacks will be fighting for that award instead. Let’s focus on getting to the Super Bowl for a change here as the Bills are going to have to fight the turnover regression after a record-low 8 giveaways in 2024, including the first team in over 30 years to have zero fumbles lost by non-quarterbacks.

Allen listened to the turnovers complaints in 2023 and came back with a 2024 season that had the fewest turnovers ever by an offense in any 20-game span. The Bills also have gone 22 games without losing the turnover battle, the longest streak in NFL history.

Turnovers are not consistent from year to year, especially fumbles and especially on defense, so you have to expect some regression for a Buffalo team that was +17 in fumble recoveries when you include the playoffs. That’s absurd.

Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills
(Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images)

I’ve said many times I don’t think Allen had his best season by any stretch (2020 was his best). He didn’t elevate Dalton Kincaid in his second season. Keon Coleman had a so-so rookie year. Khali Shakir had more volume but his efficiency went way down from 2023’s awesome numbers. The offensive line and running game (James Cook) were never better around Allen, who enjoyed the best field position because of the turnover dominance the Bills had. He was only 2-3 against winning teams, so the schedule wasn’t even that tough.

The Bills lost 23-20 in Houston in a game where Allen completed 9-of-30 passes and threw the game away late with three straight incompletions that left enough time for Houston to get the game-winning field goal. This came on the heels of a 35-10 blowout in Baltimore, showing the Bills they needed to trade for a veteran like Amari Cooper, who didn’t do much in this offense.

That’s why I think Allen actually stands to get much better in the 2025 season, turnovers be damned. Maybe Coleman or Kincaid make a big leap as his top weapon. Maybe the offensive line and running game still remain elite. The Bills also get home games against the Ravens, Chiefs, Bengals, and Eagles, so that’s a path designed to maximize their shot at a No. 1 seed they’ve yet to snatch in this era.

But after the way Allen won MVP last year, he’ll have a hard time repeating without a season that’s significantly greater. And no, the Tush Push TDs will never move me no matter which quarterback is scoring them. That play also lost its luster after Allen was stopped three times by the Chiefs in the biggest game of his career.

There was a concerted effort by the media and league last year to push Allen into the spotlight, and he still came up short of Super Bowl glory. Between Allen and Jackson, the league won’t wait forever for you to get there. If you keep coming up short, they’ll move onto the next shiny things, whether it’s Jayden Daniels, Joe Burrow, or Jalen Hurts looking for a repeat in Philly.

4. Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders

Like I said weeks ago, if you stopped every quarterback’s career after one season, Jayden Daniels would be the GOAT. We can only judge by what we’ve seen so far, and Daniels was incredible last year in doing the unthinkable: Making the Washington franchise relevant again.

The Commanders won more than 10 games for the first time since 1991 as they were the only NFL team that had yet to do that in the salary cap era. Daniels showed off his dual-threat abilities in a way that only Lamar Jackson can surpass right now. In fact, Daniels is really a triple threat as he can convert third-and-long with a short pass, a deep pass, or by running it himself.

Daniels already won three games last season where the Commanders allowed more than 30 points. Joe Burrow is 1-15 in such games in his career and even Josh Allen is only 4-14.

Daniels repeatedly delivered in the clutch with a record four touchdown passes in the final 30 seconds of games, and he tied the rookie record with five comeback wins. Daniels had more game-winning drives (5) as a rookie than Burrow, Jackson, and Aaron Rodgers have ever had in any season of their careers.  

CINCINNATI, OHIO - SEPTEMBER 23: Jayden Daniels #5 of the Washington Commanders celebrates after throwing a 27 yard touchdown pass against the Cincinnati Bengals during the fourth quarter at Paycor Stadium on September 23, 2024 in Cincinnati, Ohio.
(Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

He made his teammates better, helping Terry McLaurin to a career year as well as elevating an old Zach Ertz and getting Dyami Brown paid in free agency. He was the last quarterback to beat the Eagles, and he may have done it again in the NFC title game if his teammates didn’t lose three fumbles again.

Now, the Commanders are building around him with trades for Laremy Tunsil and Deebo Samuel. It’d be hard for the defense to be any worse than 2024, so he should have a better roster around him next year as the team takes on a more difficult schedule without the element of surprise, as they won’t sneak up on anyone in 2025.

We’ve seen this play out with Houston and C.J. Stroud last year, where he didn’t elevate his game to the next level, but still made the playoffs. Daniels is a great MVP choice for 2025 and should have received more votes in 2024 given what he did as a rookie. That rib injury at the midseason point threw him off for a while,e but he recovered and had a legendary postseason run to the title game.

He just might be the next big thing in the NFL, and we’ll see him in Kansas City on a Monday night in Week 8 for his first crack at the Chiefs. Naturally, he also gets two shots at the Eagles late in the season in games that could determine the No. 1 seed in the NFC and have a major impact on the playoffs.

No one has been able to repeat as NFC East champs since the Eagles did it in 2001-04, so maybe this is Daniels’ year to overtake Philadelphia and the whole NFC. We’ve been duped before (Dak Prescott in Dallas in 2017 and the aforementioned Stroud) by an all-time great rookie, but keep in mind Dan Marino (1984 Dolphins), Ben Roethlisberger (2005 Steelers), and Russell Wilson (2013 Seahawks) all took their memorable rookie seasons and turned them into Super Bowl runs in Year 2.

Coach Dan Quinn took the Falcons to the Super Bowl in his second season (2016). History could repeat itself. Just don’t blow a 28-3 lead this time, but that shouldn’t happen on Daniels’ watch.

5. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Burrow is in a tough spot as it’s hard to be a top-five quarterback if you keep missing the playoffs, as the Bengals have two years in a row. Burrow also publicly pressured the Bengals to sign his wide receivers to lucrative deals, and they botched that strategy by waiting so long to the point where Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are the most expensive duo in NFL history at $69 million per season.

That doesn’t leave much money to improve the defense or offensive line, and the Bengals did little in the way of improving those areas this offseason. They haven’t even been able to make pass rusher Trey Hendrickson happy yet with his money, so it’s hard to see how paying the same few players more money is going to make the team exponentially better in 2025, putting more pressure on Burrow to deliver.

Meanwhile, 2024 may have been Burrow’s best season yet and it still wasn’t enough for the playoffs because the team once again had a slow start with a 1-4 record. It’s hard to blame the defense when you’re losing a 16-10 game at home to the Patriots in Week 1, an early deathblow to the team’s playoff chances. Burrow also coughed up a big fumble for a touchdown in Kansas City in Week 2 and made some crucial mistakes in the shootout losses with the Ravens that turned the AFC North in 2024.

The fact is Burrow is far from a finished product. He still has just one win in his NFL career when the Bengals trailed in the final 8:00 of the game, so spare me the “Joe Brrr” and “Joe Cool” nicknames that have never been earned.

But Burrow is an MVP favorite this season as it probably wouldn’t require much more than a similar season to last year with an extra win or two to make the playoffs to sway gullible voters like Dan Orlovsky and Chris Simms who aren’t above making that award a participation trophy.

But it was Burrow who referenced the Eagles’ strategy of paying their stars while missing the point that the Eagles have an elite defense and offensive line, which the Bengals lack. If people are going to talk about the Chiefs living on their past stats before 2023, then what do we say about the Bengals living on those 2021-22 playoff runs? At least the Chiefs still keep making it back to the Super Bowl.

The Bengals don’t play the Chiefs in the 2025 regular season, but the schedule makers gave them a wild 3-week run starting on Thanksgiving when they’ll face the Ravens twice with a trip to Buffalo in between. That stretch should tell you a lot about how ready the Bengals are for a playoff run, but for Burrow’s sake, they better start hot in September for a change.

6. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers

For years, we just wanted to see what Justin Herbert could do with an adequate coach who can give him a running game and defense. The 2024 season mostly answered that with a good start on the ground with J.K. Dobbins before injury set in, and the defense allowed a league-low 17.7 points per game for coach Jim Harbaugh.

The result was an 11-6 season, good enough for a wild card as the Chargers still got swept by the Chiefs after not coming through in the fourth quarter. The Chargers also did Herbert few favors in September, playing him while he was injured against the Steelers, then forcing him back out there a week later in a more important game with the Chiefs. The AFC West race might have looked more interesting if they didn’t mismanage that situation.

The Chargers also found a great receiver for Herbert in Ladd McConkey. Unfortunately, he was still stuck throwing to the likes of Quentin Johnston and Jalen Reagor. But with better team play around him, Herbert won a career-high 11 games and threw just 3 interceptions on 504 passes now that he wasn’t forcing the ball up 40 times a week in an effort to play from behind.

Basically, it was going as planned until the playoffs. In Houston, Herbert imploded in an ugly game that was winnable when he threw 4 interceptions. Even if you account for one in a 20-point game out of reach and a third that was the result of a dropped pass by Will Dissly, Herbert still played poorly in what should go down as the most disappointing game of his career to this point.

But hopefully with McConkey in Year 2 and another year with this coaching staff, Herbert can get back to being more aggressive and prolific as a passer while still getting enough help from his defense to win games and get another crack at the playoffs.

7. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles

The last quarterback in our second tier is the reigning Super Bowl MVP. I think most acknowledge that Jalen Hurts has had an excellent combination of offensive lines, weapons, and defenses in his time with the Eagles. But he’s also recognized as the best on the Tush Push, a lethal play in Philly’s arsenal that is not getting banned for the 2025 season. Maybe down the road…

But what really keeps Hurts in the elite conversation is that you can argue his two best playoff games have been his Super Bowls against the Chiefs. If you can play like that against the top team in this era, then you have a real shot to carve out your legacy, even if his passing stats are nowhere near as prolific as his peers here.

But Hurts is also 13-10 (.565) at game-winning drive opportunities, the only other active quarterback besides Mahomes who has a winning record (min. 12 games) in those situations.

PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - JANUARY 21: Jalen Hurts #1 of the Philadelphia Eagles reacts prior to a game against the New York Giants in the NFC Divisional Playoff game at Lincoln Financial Field on January 21, 2023 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
(Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)

Sure, it’d be nice to see him win an NFC Championship Game that isn’t at home against a rookie quarterback (who are roughly 0-for-300 at reaching the Super Bowl since 1966), but that’s small potatoes to stepping up against the Chiefs on the big stage.

The Eagles aren’t going away any time soon either. Hurts is only going on 27, but we’ll see how things go with what looks like real competition in the division now with Jayden Daniels in Washington.

Tier 3 Quarterbacks: The Serviceable

Our third tier has seven quarterbacks who can certainly take their team to a Super Bowl under the right circumstances as three of them already have. But there may be some flaws in their game or coaching dependencies that keep them out of that top tier of real MVP contenders.

8. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions

Jared Goff has led a very good offense for the last three years in Detroit, and 2024 was his finest season yet as he completed 72.4% of his passes for 4,629 yards and 37 touchdowns.

But his detractors still had ammo from the disappointing playoff loss when Goff had some turnover issues against Washington in an upset in the divisional round. That’s always been the concern with Goff, but he has a chance to show once again this year that it’s not just coaching that propels him after the Lions lost offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to the Bears.

If Goff can keep the Lions in contention, then there’s a good chance he has another prolific passing season, which would give him six seasons with at least 4,400 passing yards. That would tie Philip Rivers for the fifth most in NFL history.

9. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams

There was a time when Matthew Stafford was one of the youngest quarterbacks in the league as a 21-year-old rookie in 2009. Now he’s 37 and one of the oldest quarterbacks left in the NFL. He’s also on a short list of favorites to add another ring to his collection this season as the Rams hope to follow the Eagles’ path by going 2-1 in the Super Bowl over an 8-year span.

It could have been the Rams in the Super Bowl last year over the Eagles had they not come up 13 yards short in that game-winning drive attempt in the snow in the divisional round. I think with the way Stafford battled in that game, the addition of Davante Adams, and the young front seven expected to grow with Jared Verse leading the way, Sean McVay has a viable Super Bowl contender here.

Expectations should be high for Stafford, who hasn’t had the best of regular seasons over the last three years, and it’s not like he’s getting any younger. But we know he can get to the finish line and that’s in short supply around the league right now as so many of these quarterbacks are young.

10. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers

I like Brock Purdy, the best Mr. Irrelevant ever, enough to the point where I hate the way the 2024 narrative is going to be used against him. The 49ers did him no favors last season as they were laughably injured from so many angles, and they blew a fourth-quarter lead against every division foe or else this team could have easily been in the playoffs again despite the injuries.

His skill players were so injured that Ricky Pearsall was one of his healthiest teammates, and the rookie was shot last August in a robbery attempt. That’s how bad the injuries were for the 2024 49ers. But people will just acknowledge that Christian McCaffrey was the real MVP, and without him playing most of the season, the 49ers slumped to 6-11.

But that ignores that Jordan Mason was running well when he played before he was also injured. That ignores that Deebo Samuel was banged up and that Brandon Aiyuk (best route runner) tore his ACL and missed 10 games.

Purdy didn’t play as well in 2024 as he did the year before, but that should be expected when you take this many good players off the field. With better health (hard not to have that) and an easier schedule projected for 2025, I think Purdy and the 49ers bounce back in a big way this year.

11. C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans

That hope of C.J. Stroud ascending to an MVP level in 2024 didn’t work out as we quickly learned the team had some offensive line issues, and all three of his main wide receivers were injured at one point, including serious, season-ending injuries to Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell.

It would be nice to see Stroud once play a postseason with more than just Nico Collins, but he still found a way to beat the Chargers at home in the wild card round before losing in Kansas City after getting sacked 8 times.

Stroud’s numbers were worse in his second season across the board, but in the end, the Texans still repeated as AFC South champions, and still ended up losing a divisional round game, so he’s not that far off in results as his team lost some really tight games with the Lions and Packers.

Still, the Ravens seem to have this team’s number, and that’s not good for Stroud in advancing through the AFC playoffs. Let’s see how he does with a new offensive coordinator after things soured quickly with Bobby Slowik, who was once thought to be someone’s head coach material.

A reminder of how quickly things can change in the NFL, and one great rookie season doesn’t guarantee further success.

12. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers

Jordan Love really is the NFC equivalent to C.J. Stroud, right down to having the often-injured receiver (Tank Dell à Christian Watson) to falling a little below expectations in 2024 after such a promising 2023. But I still give Stroud a slight edge over Love for doing it in the AFC as a true rookie these first two years, while Love got to sit and wait his turn in Green Bay.

Granted, Love outplayed Stroud when the Packers beat the Texans on a last-second field goal last year, but that was one of the few quality wins the Packers had in 2024. They were 0-6 against the Eagles, Vikings, and Lions.

You could wonder how the season goes if the Packers didn’t have to play the Eagles on that bad field in Brazil on opening night, which is where Love was injured in the closing seconds. That certainly didn’t help put him on the right path for a great season, but he also peaked in Weeks 11-15 before an underwhelming finish to his year, including a bad playoff game in Philadelphia.

I’m still pro-Love, but last season was simply not the case of him taking his game to another level.

13. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Baker Mayfield was at his best last season, which is why some people would have him higher. But I still see a quarterback that I wonder if you can go the distance with him or if he’ll inevitably make season-killing mistakes. Last year, he carved up the Eagles better than anyone in a big win, he won a low-scoring game in Detroit, and he took the Chiefs to overtime with his best receivers injured.

But he also led the league with 16 interceptions and his 13 fumbles were also the most of any player. He has a lot of weapons, and the Buccaneers could win the NFC South again, but this is also a team where I wouldn’t be surprised if Baker was outplayed at home in the playoffs again by someone like Jayden Daniels (Commanders) or a veteran like Matthew Stafford (Rams). The division should also be more competitive, so he’ll need to cut down on the negative plays this year.

14. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys

Dak Prescott is still the longest-tenured starting quarterback in the league as this is his 10th season with the Dallas Cowboys. But that number also makes you think back to how they still haven’t made it past the divisional round since the 1995 season, and that Dak’s best shot at that may have been in his rookie season when they lost to Green Bay.

Last year, Dak got paid, becoming the NFL’s first $60 million per season quarterback, but it also ended up being his worst season as his 45.3 QBR was nearly a full 10 points below his previous worst season. The Cowboys fell behind big in a lot of games, the opposite of 2023 where they cruised against a lot of bad teams.

Even without a season-ending injury, things weren’t trending well for Prescott in 2024. Now he has a new head coach in Brian Schottenheimer Jr., whom he has already worked with in Dallas the past few years. That could be a good thing for continuity, but also a curse if it means not enough is going to change from the core of the Mike McCarthy era.

SANTA CLARA, CALIFORNIA - JANUARY 22: Dak Prescott #4 of the Dallas Cowboys looks on during the national anthem prior to an NFL divisional round playoff football game between the San Francisco 49ers and the Dallas Cowboys at Levi's Stadium on January 22, 2023 in Santa Clara, California.
(Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images)

With Prescott, it’s just getting tiresome of never seeing him go on a deep playoff run or do something truly unexpected, as Dallas continues getting the attention and press of a team that is nowhere near as successful to justify it year after year.

When you take on that status of being the highest-paid player in NFL history, you can’t turn in 2024 results like Prescott did.

Tier 4 Quarterbacks: Situationships

Our fourth tier includes a handful of quarterbacks who may not be in it for the long haul with their 2025 team, but they’re just trying to make the situation work for now. Some may have a contract for multiple years, but if things don’t start picking up with their play and making the playoffs, it’s always possible they’re playing elsewhere soon.

15. Geno Smith, Las Vegas Raiders

The last three years of Geno Smith in Seattle all felt eerily similar with him trying to overcome the deficiencies around him on the way to seasons with 8-to-10 wins that usually weren’t enough to qualify for the playoffs despite his nine game-winning drives since 2023. There was also a slight decline in his individual stats each year as the hits pile up on his body that was never used to being a weekly starter for most of his career prior to 2022.

Basically, you’re looking at a 4,000-yard passer who is a gamer and can give your team a chance most weeks, but he’s not exactly ready to take his game to any further heights. But someone who is interested in more of this is Pete Carroll as the two reunite in Las Vegas, a very tough division with three playoff teams and a legendary group of head coaches.

The Raiders will be expected to finish last, but Smith has some weapons around him, including what could quickly become the best running back and tight end duo in the league in Ashton Jeanty and Brock Bowers. That should be fun to watch as Geno takes on the Chiefs, Chargers, and Broncos twice a year.

16. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals have Kyler Murray under contract through the 2028 season, and it’s unlikely he’ll be on the move anywhere before 2027 unless the Steelers get desperate and want to re-open the Arizona-to-Pittsburgh player pipeline after Aaron Rodgers retires.

But going into Year 7, we’re still waiting to see more from Murray, who peaked during a 7-0 start in the 2021 season under coach Kliff Kingsbury. He had some of his best numbers last year for an offense that showed great potential, but there were still seven games where the Cardinals didn’t score more than 18 points, which is too many.

That’s why the Cardinals (8-9) missed the playoffs again, and they’re iffy to make it this year out of a tough division race in the NFC West. It’s also preposterous that it took almost an entire season for Murray to throw a touchdown pass to tight end Trey McBride, but he should have some stellar weapons this year with Marvin Harrison Jr. hopefully making a second-year leap.

But Murray still has to show some progress and better consistency.

17. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins

It feels like a miracle that Tua Tagovailoa started all 17 games in the 2023 season and led the NFL in passing yards, because he has struggled to avoid concussions in his other seasons under coach Mike McDaniel.

That Week 2 concussion against Buffalo last year where he needlessly lowered his head at Damar Hamlin hurt Miami’s season, and even though he played better upon his return, he still lost to the good teams on the schedule, a staple for this team in this era.

The Dolphins have invested a lot into Tua and his two wide receivers, but it’s gotten rather stale watching them lose to the same caliber of teams so consistently and not get anywhere closer to winning a playoff game, something Miami hasn’t done since the 2000 season.

18. Aaron Rodgers, Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers could be where Aaron Rodgers spends his final season this year as he turns 42 in December, an age that only Tom Brady has done well at the quarterback position in the NFL. It’s a bold experiment, and loading up on tight ends (Jonnu Smith trade) and only offering D.K. Metcalf in the way of a good wide receiver is certainly not the way to get the best out of Rodgers.

But I think we have to acknowledge he was better than his 5-12 record last year as the Jets had major issues at holding leads in the fourth quarter and making critical plays on special teams – all snaps that had nothing to do with Rodgers as he threw for 28 touchdowns while also playing in all 17 games a year after his Achilles injury.

He could very well be in a better place physically another year removed from that injury, and we know the Steelers have a 21-year streak of non-losing seasons to uphold for the all-time record this year at 22 seasons. It’s a tough schedule and the wide receiver help that Rodgers usually enjoys simply isn’t there right now, but as long as the Steelers don’t blow six fourth-quarter leads like the Jets last year, you have to think he has a shot to return to the playoffs.

But his MVP days are over, and things rarely end well for old quarterbacks.

19. Sam Darnold, Seattle Seahawks

Sam Darnold had one of the most unexpected Year 7 breakout seasons in NFL history at a position notorious for good players getting it right in their first or second season. It also ended in a way you expected more of 2024 to go for him in Minnesota after he had to take over for an injured J.J. McCarthy. He may have won the starting job regardless, but no one saw a 14-3 record and 35 touchdown passes coming for Darnold.

But his impotent performances against the Lions in Week 18 with the No. 1 seed on the line and a wild card loss against the Rams, where he kept taking sacks are why few ever wanted to buy into this team with Darnold at quarterback.

With McCarthy coming back healthy, it’s understandable why the Vikings are moving forward without Darnold. It makes less sense why the Seahawks would opt for a lateral movement at best by replacing Geno Smith with Darnold, and it doesn’t help that they lost D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett from the receiving corps while adding a past his prime Cooper Kupp.

It’s definitely a downgrade at receiver for Darnold, but we’ll see if he can come anywhere close to repeating last year’s success with another team. I’m skeptical to say the least.

Tier 5 Quarterbacks: Hope Springs Eternal

Our fifth tier is the largest one (eight quarterbacks) as it includes a mix of some of the oldest quarterbacks in the league who have won a Super Bowl over a decade ago, and it has some of the youngest quarterbacks in the league from the last few drafts. The key is just hoping for the best this year either by a breakout season or rekindling some of that old magic on a new team.

20. Bo Nix, Denver Broncos

It’s easy to forget about Bo Nix when he was the sixth quarterback drafted in 2024 and his September wasn’t promising at all. But he got better as the season wore on under coach Sean Payton, and by season’s end, he threw 29 touchdown passes, tied for the second most by a rookie in NFL history. He also rushed for 4 touchdowns and caught another on a trick play.

His yardage went up too, and it’s not like the Broncos had a good running game or great receivers. Pretty good offensive line, though. Nix threw 21 touchdowns in his last eight games, which would put him on pace for 45 touchdowns in a 17-game season, or Drew Brees type of numbers with the 70.3% completions.

Not saying he’s Brees by any means yet, but he ended Denver’s playoff drought in Year 1, and he’s a promising player to keep an eye on this season.

21. Russell Wilson, New York Giants

Once the calf healed and Russell Wilson took the field for the Steelers, things were going well. But then the competition picked up in December and the Steelers finished 0-5 with the offense never cracking 17 points in any of those losses.

Wilson wasn’t brought back, and he’ll be with the Giants this season, trying to fend off Jameis Winston and a rookie (Jaxson Dart) from taking his latest starting job.

Once on an obvious path to the Hall of Fame, these last few years have been tough for Wilson, who has arguably never been the same since the COVID seasons. While I think throwing to Malik Nabers will be good for him, it’s going to be hard for him to last a full season or help the Giants finish anywhere but last in the NFC East.

22. Joe Flacco, Cleveland Browns

This is a tough one to rank as it all feels so temporary in Cleveland, which could also start Kenny Pickett or one of their rookie draft picks in Dillon Gabriel or Shedeur Sanders – the latter the most talked-about fifth-round quarterback in NFL history.

But I think it’s a 40-year-old Joe Flacco in Week 1, and it may very well be Sanders before the end of the season. Flacco hasn’t started double-digit games in a season since 2017. But he did have that run of success with the Browns in 2023. He didn’t fare nearly as well with the Colts last year.

The good news is we shouldn’t have to talk about Deshaun Watson this year as he tries to return from an Achilles injury.

23. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars

Too many injuries caught up to Lawrence last season, but he was struggling even before that. I’ve never been as enamored with him as most have, but he needs to prove something in Year 5 with a new coach like Liam Coen, a Sean McVay disciple who just got the best out of Baker Mayfield in Tampa Bay.

Brian Thomas Jr. looks like a stud wideout, and they added the most interesting player in the draft in Travis Hunter. No excuses for Lawrence not to have a huge turnaround season in a winnable division.

Also, he’s still 2-25 when he doesn’t complete more than 60% of his passes, so getting him in rhythm early is always important for him.

24. Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears

This is faith in Ben Johnson coaching Williams up on how to get rid of the ball faster to bring those sacks down. It helps they brought in some proven veteran talent for the line as well, and they drafted another weapon in tight end Colston Loveland. Not the biggest fan of that pick with Cole Kmet already there, but let’s give Johnson a chance to cook here.

Williams had such a unique rookie season in that he barely threw any interceptions despite the deficits and pressure he faced all year. We’ll see if he can keep that down while getting more aggressive and efficient at putting together long drives.

The weapons are there, the line is better, and hopefully the coach is the real deal as advertised. Williams has a chance for a big breakout season.

25. Michael Penix Jr., Atlanta Falcons

Hated the process of the Falcons paying Kirk Cousins and still drafting Michael Penix Jr. with the No. 8 pick. But that’s in the past, and Penix already took over for Cousins late in his rookie season. Let’s just judge it from that viewpoint now.

There was a lot to like in his starts, and if the Falcons can improve their defense and he makes the proper adjustments from his rookie year, you’re looking at a team that can overtake the NFC South from Tampa Bay this year.

Penix showed he could deliver some clutch drives against Washington and Carolina, but his defense gave up touchdowns in overtime of each game. Fix that up and let’s see what he can do in a full season with very good weapons around him.

26. Drake Maye, New England Patriots

I’ve said Drake Maye had a better rookie season than Josh Allen did in 2018, and that’s the quarterback he’ll keep getting compared to as there are similar features there beyond just playing in the AFC East.

With the Patriots adding rookie tackle Will Campbell, wide receiver Stefon Diggs, and coach Mike Vrabel, there is a lot of optimism about Maye stepping up in 2025.

I get it. At the same time, I think we should temper expectations for a quarterback who didn’t start and finish a single win last year where the Patriots allowed more than 3 points. Maye won two starts where he threw a combined 7 passes because of injuries early in the games.

We need to see a lot more from him, but the athleticism is certainly there, and he had one of the coolest and most clutch touchdown passes of the 2024 season. Just can’t end it with the brutal pick he did in overtime to lose that game.

27. Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers

We can get into more depth with Bryce Young when it’s time for the 2025 Panthers season preview. But the burning question is was his second-half improvement legitimate and something the team can build on this year? He’s going into Year 3, so even under the new Josh Allen standard of needing a third year, he’s running out of time in Carolina to show he’s a franchise quarterback after getting benched for Andy Dalton last year.

But there are some reasons to think Young can turn this around in Dave Canales’ offense. It just needs to happen this year or there’s no reason to keep entertaining this working out in 2026.

Tier 6 Quarterbacks: The Danger Zone

Our sixth tier is thankfully a small one, but it’s the quarterbacks you don’t feel safe with for various reasons. Maybe they haven’t proven anything yet, and maybe they’ve shown us too much already to think the light bulb is ever going to turn on there.

28. Justin Fields, New York Jets

I can say the same thing about Justin Fields going to the Jets that I said about him going to the Steelers last year. On paper, going to a team that’s building up the running game with the offensive line and Breece Hall is a good thing for Fields. Hiring a defensive coach like Aaron Glenn for a defense that blew a league-high six leads in the fourth quarter is also probably a good thing.

However, Fields isn’t someone who gives you value in closing out those fourth quarters as he’s arguably the worst closer in NFL history. At least in the 21st century.

Fields is 2-18 (.100) at fourth-quarter comeback opportunities, which is when he’s had the ball down one score in the fourth quarter or overtime. That’s the worst-known record for anyone with at least 20 such games.

Fields is also 0-22 as a starter when his team allows more than 20 points, another abysmal record.

So, you basically have to get the lead early and don’t expect to win a shootout with him as your quarterback. That doesn’t leave much flexibility for the Jets to win games with him.

29. Daniel Jones/Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts

Last year, the most undesirable long-term quarterback situation was the Las Vegas Raiders with Aidan O’Connell and Gardner Minshew battling for a starting job that neither really won in the end. The Colts might be the Raiders this year as it’s not an optimistic situation with Daniel Jones doing battle with Anthony Richardson.

If Richardson was the real deal, this wouldn’t be the case. But between injuries and poor accuracy, he’s been a rough project for two seasons, and most quarterbacks don’t need a Year 3 to break out. He does, but he’ll have to beat out Daniel Jones first.

If you combined Jones’ scrambling and the early touch he showed on deep balls with the Giants with Richardson’s throwing power, you might have a decent quarterback for coach Shane Steichen to work with here.

But he’s going to have a tough call on who to start the season with. The only good news (which is still bad news) is that given the injury histories for these quarterbacks, there’s a good chance we see them both start games in 2025.

30. J.J. McCarthy, Minnesota Vikings

It’s not that I think J.J. McCarthy stinks. I just don’t know much about him as he only gave us part of one preseason game (which went well) to go on last year before he required meniscus surgery, paving the way for Sam Darnold’s huge year in Minnesota.

McCarthy is arguably the biggest wild card of the 2025 NFL season. If he’s the real deal, then the Vikings are a Super Bowl contender. If he struggles, they may be looking at a 7-10 or 8-9 season at best.

But it should be fascinating to see how Kevin O’Connell’s high-volume passing offense is adapted to McCarthy’s skillset, which is more of a chain-moving, play-action shot quarterback you’re going to insulate more with a run game and rely on the defense than you would with Matthew Stafford or Kirk Cousins.

But maybe he’s stellar right away a la Brock Purdy, and it can’t hurt to have Justin Jefferson to throw the ball to. We just have so much to see and learn from McCarthy in the NFL.

Tier 7 Quarterbacks: The Rookies

Our final tier has the two rookie quarterbacks who are most likely to be Week 1 starters, and no, that doesn’t include Shedeur Sanders (Browns) after his historic slide to the fifth round.

31. Cam Ward, Tennessee Titans

It wasn’t the strongest draft class for quarterbacks in 2025, but Cam Ward was likely the right choice at No. 1 overall by the Titans. He has the best odds to win Offensive Rookie of the Year after running back Ashton Jeanty, but it’s certainly going to be an uphill battle in turning around a 3-14 Tennessee team that struggled on both sides of the ball for rookie coach Brian Callahan.

In some ways, Ward has a situation similar to Jayden Daniels last year in the way he excelled in his final college season and led Miami to the most points per game (43.9) in the nation. His numbers at Washington State were also better than what Daniels did at Arizona State in the Pac-12.

That’s not to say Ward is ready to deliver the best rookie season ever with Calvin Ridley as his WR1, but he’s a volume passer and a playmaker, and it should be fun to watch something other than the weekly Will Levis turnover meme in Tennessee.

32. Tyler Shough, New Orleans Saints

Did not see Derek Carr retiring at 34 years old, but here we are. It’s a huge opportunity for Tyler Shough, the No. 40 pick in the draft after a long college career that spanned Oregon (2018-20), Texas Tech (2021-23), and he peaked in his final year with Louisville (2024) with 3,195 yards and 23 touchdowns.

In case you’re wondering, Shough turns 26 on September 28, so there’s not much time to sit him as he’s already closer to 30 than most quarterbacks entering the league these days. But new coach Kellen Moore is a smart guy who has worked with a variety of quarterback talent (Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert, Jalen Hurts), so maybe he’ll have a plan ready for Shough.

Still, “Rough Shough” feels like the all too predictable headline to use for his games this season.

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