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Denver Broncos 2025 NFL Season Preview and Picks: Is Bo Nix the One Sean Payton’s Been Waiting for?

Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar11/07/2025 - 10:07 am
DENVER, CO - JANUARY 5: Quarterback Bo Nix #10 of the Denver Broncos walks off the field after a 38-0 win against the Kansas City Chiefs at Empower Field at Mile High on January 5, 2025 in Denver, Colorado.
(Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images)

The Denver Broncos finally ended the second-longest playoff drought in the NFL last year by qualifying for the first time since they won Super Bowl 50. But as a No. 7 seed who only got in after the Chiefs rested all their starters in Week 18, it was a short stay after a 31-7 loss in Buffalo that showed Sean Payton and his team have a long way to go.

But hope springs eternal as Bo Nix had an impressive rookie season despite being the sixth quarterback taken in that 2024 first round. He threw for 29 touchdowns, a total that only Justin Herbert has surpassed as a rookie starter in NFL history. In fact, throw in the 50 touchdowns that Patrick Mahomes threw in 2018, and the AFC West has three of the top five quarterbacks ever in touchdown passes in their first season as starters.

Then when you consider the coaching prowess in this division with Sean Payton, Andy Reid, Jim Harbaugh, and newcomer Pete Carroll all having been to a Super Bowl before, it’s the most stacked division ever for coaches. That’s why it could be a real battle for the division title as the Broncos gave the Chiefs all they could handle last year before a certain blocked field goal decided the game.

But the sportsbooks see the Broncos as essentially a coin flip to return to the playoffs in 2025. There figures to be a lot of competition with the Bills, Ravens, Bengals, Steelers, Texans, Chiefs, and Chargers. You also can’t discount a team like the Jaguars improving with a new coach and Travis Hunter, or the same can be said for Carroll, Ashton Jeanty, and Geno Smith coming to Las Vegas in the division. Even the Patriots are favored to win a lot of games under new coach Mike Vrabel.

For this season, you want to see more growth from the 25-year-old Nix, and the defense will have to shed some of its paper tiger reputation and step up in the big games for this team to become a legitimate Super Bowl contender. But compared to where the Broncos have usually been the last decade, this is a breath of fresh Mile High air.

Let’s look at why some of the 2024 stats for Denver are misleading, where they need to improve, what’s changed, and the best Broncos bets for 2025.

Previously on BRONCOS: The Mile High Surprise  

Expectations for the Broncos in coach Sean Payton’s second season were not very high as their over/under 5.5 wins was the second-lowest total in the league. If you watched them start 0-2 with ugly offensive performances against the Seahawks and Steelers, you probably never would have imagined this team would produce a 10-7 playoff season with Bo Nix throwing for 29 touchdowns or corner Patrick Surtain II winning a Defensive Player of the Year award.

But all those things happened as Nix really turned things around, starting with that near win in Kansas City, as he had an impressive rookie campaign. The defense was dominant in wins against teams like the Falcons and Colts, and they won a very entertaining Monday night game against Cleveland despite wide receiver Jerry Jeudy (235 yards) turning in an all-time revenge game.

DENVER, COLORADO - JANUARY 05: Bo Nix #10 of the Denver Broncos celebrates with fans after beating the Kansas City Chiefs 38-0 at Empower Field At Mile High on January 05, 2025 in Denver, Colorado.
(Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)

However, let’s not ignore the elephant in the room. After some tough road losses to the Chargers and Bengals, the Broncos needed to beat the Chiefs in Week 18 to secure a No. 7 seed and 10-7 record. The Chiefs had the No. 1 seed locked up and rested their starters, leading to one of the most lopsided games of the 21st century as the Broncos easily won 38-0 to pad the stats a bit for the season.

Then, in a trip to Buffalo for the wild card round, Nix dropped a 43-yard touchdown pass to Troy Franklin in the first few minutes, giving Denver fans real hope of an upset. Unfortunately, they never scored the rest of the game and lost 31-7.

Consider it all a learning experience for a team that’s ahead of schedule.

Why the Broncos’ 2024 Stats Are Misleading

When you look at Denver’s stats for 2024, you see a team that was 10th in points scored, 3rd in points allowed, and No. 7 in SRS, which adjusts for schedule. That’s quite good for a team that started 0-2 with those poor offensive showings in Nix’s first two starts.

But I think we need to be a little careful in taking Denver’s stats at face value for the season when you consider some of the context in these games:

  • They played the Jets in poor weather in one of the ugliest games of the season, which ended 10-9 after the Jets missed a 50-yard field goal in the final minute.
  • On a Thursday night, Denver pounded the Saints 33-10 in Payton’s return to New  Orleans, but the Saints were decimated by injuries and were starting Spencer Rattler at quarterback without his top two wide receivers (Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed) on a short week.
  • They caught the Falcons during Kirk Cousins’ injury slide into the abyss in a 38-6 rout.
  • They were in a battle at home with the Colts before Indy had one of the most embarrassing turnovers of the season for a 50-yard touchdown return.

Then yes, playing the Chiefs backups in Week 18 and outgaining them 29-5 in first downs and 479-98 in yards in a 38-0 rout was a real gift to make the playoffs as well as pad the stats for the season. It’s not like Nix did not play well at the game at Arrowhead earlier in the season, but it’s hard to go 26-of-29 for 321 yards and 4 touchdowns if you’re not playing some sorry backups who had no real interest in winning that game.

So, on the one hand, Denver’s +114 scoring differential (third in the AFC) sounds impressive. But when you consider +93 of it was against Spencer Rattler, Dead Man Walking Kirk Cousins, and Kansas City’s backups, that’s not so good.

Take away KC’s backups, and the fact of the matter is the Buccaneers were the only winning team, and quality offense, the Broncos beat all season. When they played a top offense, they were routinely lit up on defense, losing 41-10 in Baltimore, 30-24 in overtime in Cincinnati, and they were swept by the Chargers, including a 34-27 loss late in the season.

The Broncos were 1-6 when they allowed 20 points last year, and even in the 41-32 win over Cleveland, the defense scored on a pair of pick-sixes thrown by Jameis Winston, who had 497 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions in a wild game.

For a defense that was No. 1 in points per drive allowed, it sure felt like you could move the ball and score on this team with the right personnel. While Patrick Surtain II had a very nice year at corner, his Defensive Player of the Year award win was more about the competition getting hurt (Aidan Hutchinson, Micah Parsons, Maxx Crosby, Nick Bosa, etc.) or playing for teams that just faded away (T.J. Watt, Myles Garrett).

Referring to the 2024 Broncos as a paper tiger defense is not hindsight either. I said the same phrase in the preview of their wild card game with Buffalo before they gave up 31 points and a season-high 210 rushing yards.

But if Denver regresses on defense after so many of its players had career years, maybe the saving grace can be the offense. Nix threw 21 touchdowns over the final eight regular-season games, which would put him on pace for 45 touchdowns in a 17-game season, along with completing 70.3% of his passes for 4,297 yards. That’s something Payton, who worked with prolific passer Drew Brees all those years, can definitely win with.

The offensive line is also excellent in front of Nix, and that sometimes is more desirable to a quarterback than great receivers. Payton’s track record of sustained defensive success is spotty, so we’ll see if last year was an outlier and a paper tiger, or if he’s onto something big in Denver.

Denver Broncos Offseason Review

Like the Chiefs and Chargers, the Broncos have kept their core coaching staff intact. They used their Day 2 picks in the draft to add some weapons for Nix, but we’re going to celebrate the strategy they employed starting on the first day of the draft, which could be what gives them an edge over a team like the Chargers this season.

Props to Denver on the NFL Draft Strategy

Everyone and their mother had the Broncos taking a running back in their mock draft. The popular choice at No. 20 was North Carolina back Omarion Hampton. But on draft night, the Broncos said kill that noise. Let’s strengthen a strength and add Texas corner Jahdae Barron, someone who can play the nickel and become a star with Surtain II. You can never have enough good corners in the NFL.

It ended up being the Chargers who drafted Hampton two picks later at No. 22. But the Broncos still got their back of choice in the second round when they selected R.J. Harvey with the No. 60 pick out of Central Florida. The knocks on him would be six fumbles in the last two years, and he’s already 24 years old. But he’s also a speedy back with 6.5 yards per carry and could be a great value as a receiver for a coach who loves throwing to the back.

Would Hampton have been the better choice? Perhaps, and we know Sean Payton likes highly-touted prospects like Reggie Bush and Mark Ingram. But he also did some of his best work in New Orleans with unheralded backs like Darren Sproles and Pierre Thomas.

Harvey could be a very good fit in this offense, and the Broncos also signed J.K. Dobbins, who showed some promising return to his old ways with the Chargers last year. Basically, the Chargers may have overspent on running backs this year, while the Broncos used only a second-round pick and low investment in free agency on Dobbin,s while snagging a top corner in this class in Barron in the first round.

There was a lot of chatter about the Broncos drafting a skill player like a back or tight end in the first round, but they stuck to their board and went corner. They used free agency to get a reliable tight end like Evan Engram. He’s not going to make big plays in this offense, but he’s a nice safety valve for Nix at a position the Broncos have struggled to fill over the years.

But I’m giving the advantage to the Broncos over the Chargers on this draft strategy, and we’ll see just how much it can pay off this year.

DENVER, CO - JANUARY 5: Quarterback Bo Nix #10 of the Denver Broncos walks off the field after a 38-0 win against the Kansas City Chiefs at Empower Field at Mile High on January 5, 2025 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images)
(Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images)

The Defensive Changes: Relying on Some San Francisco Imports  

In addition to Barron, the Broncos are hoping some former 49ers can help improve the defense if these players can return to the form they previously showed before injuries bogged them down.

Middle linebacker Dre Greenlaw had that freak injury in Super Bowl 58 when he ruptured his Achilles while simply coming onto the field in the second quarter. He returned late last season but only played 34 defensive snaps in December before shutting things down. He’s a solid player who should be healthier this year and ready to start in Denver. The other addition is safety Talanoa Hufanga, who was a Pro Bowler in 2022 but has been limited to 17 games the last two seasons because of injuries. If these players can stay healthy in Denver, that’s a probable improvement for the defense.

Otherwise, it is a lot of the same players from last year looking to work on those career seasons enjoyed by the likes of Nik Bonitto (13.5 sacks), Jonathon Cooper (10.5 sacks), and Zach Allen (8.5 sacks). Even John Franklin-Myers had a career-high 7.0 sacks in his first season with Denver.

That was a lot of career years to produce a league-high 63.0 sacks, so we’ll see if they can come anywhere close to those numbers again this season.

Best Bets for the 2025 Broncos

It’s not the most reassuring fact that the Broncos were 0-6 last season against the top quarterbacks in the AFC (Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, and Justin Herbert), or that the closest thing to a shootout win for Nix was a pick parade against Jameis Winston and the Browns.

But Payton’s track record of sustained offensive success and the fact that prolific rookie quarterbacks are usually good picks for long-term success do help make you feel better about Denver. Still, this team is probably going to be competing with the Chargers for that No. 2 spot in the division unless Nix can really make some leaps and help this team take down the Chiefs in the AFC West.

The great news is the Broncos get the Chargers in Week 18 at Mile High, and they get some extra days to prepare as they’ll first play the Chiefs on a Thursday night on Christmas. The schedule could be a big break for the Broncos, finishing with a better record than the Chargers:

  • Denver opens with Tennessee, a team likely starting rookie Cam Ward in his NFL debut.
  • Week 2 is a trip to the Colts, who have an undesirable quarterback situation with Anthony Richardson battling Daniel Jones.
  • They get a rematch with the Bengals at home in Week 4 on a Monday night after nearly beating them on the road last year.
  • After a tough trip to Philly, they get the Giants and Jets in consecutive weeks in winnable games.
  • After hosting the Raiders on a Thursday night, they get 10 days to prepare for the Chiefs’ return to Mile High in Week 11 before their bye week.
  • Week 13 is a trip to Washington for Sunday Night Football in a battle with Jayden Daniels.
  • Three of the last four games are at home with the Packers, Jaguars, and closing things out with the Chargers in a potential do-or-die game again for the playoffs.

I think it’s pretty big that they get 10 days to get ready for their home games with the Chiefs and Chargers, two games they could win this year. They’re further ahead of a lot of these other teams to where 10 wins is certainly doable, but it’d be a better 10 wins than last year if it comes at the expense of some of these playoff-caliber teams that the Broncos didn’t beat last year (unless they rested starters).

We said earlier that rookie quarterbacks who are successful tend to have long-term success. If you look at the 23 rookie quarterbacks who started a playoff game since 1978, ignore Jayden Daniels and Nix for the time being, and focus on the ones who were meant to be the starter in Year 2 (so, exclude backups like T.J. Yates, Skylar Thompson, and Connor Cook), then 12-of-18 players (66.7%) also made the playoffs in Year 2.

That’s not a huge sample, but it’s a promising success rate. Dan Marino (1984 Dolphins), Ben Roethlisberger (2005 Steelers), Russell Wilson (2013 Seahawks), and Brock Purdy (2023 49ers) all got to the Super Bowl in Year 2 while Bernie Kosar (1986 Browns) and Mark Sanchez (2010 Jets) got to the AFC Championship Game. Lamar Jackson (2019 Ravens) won MVP and had the No. 1 seed.

As for the players who did not return to the playoffs, you’re talking about:

  • Jim Everett (1987 Rams) – Finished 6-9 in a strike season with replacement player games.
  • Todd Marinovich (1992 Raiders) – A bad quarterback who started seven games (3-4).
  • Matt Ryan (2009 Falcons) – Team was 9-5 with him and 0-2 without him.
  • Robert Griffin III (2013 Redskins) – Team finished 3-13 with slow recovery from torn ACL in rookie playoff start.
  • Dak Prescott (2017 Cowboys) – Team finished 9-7 but a 3-game losing streak where they were outscored 92-22 stands out as it kicked off a 6-game suspension for running back Ezekiel Elliott.
  • Mac Jones (2022 Patriots) – Team finished 8-9 after some huge fumbles late in the season against the Raiders and Bengals.

Nix had a better rookie season than half of this list, and Ryan and Prescott probably return to the playoffs if not for the injury and Zeke suspension. RGIII’s knee was a big issue that Denver doesn’t have to worry about with Nix this year.

All that said, if the Broncos can get at least one win over the Chargers this year (preferably in Week 18), and maybe avenge that Cincinnati overtime loss early in the season, then those could be huge for tie-breakers at the end of the year.

I’d cautiously back the Broncos to repeat as a playoff team this season.

  • NFL Pick: Broncos over 9.5 wins (+110 at FanDuel)
  • NFL Pick: Broncos to make the playoffs (-114 at FanDuel)

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Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar11/07/2025 - 10:07 am