The NFL has an incredible setup for Championship Sunday with the final four teams looking to make history. It gets started in the NFC where Washington’s Jayden Daniels will try to become the first rookie quarterback to reach the Super Bowl. But his defense will have to find a way to slow down the Eagles and Saquon Barkley, who has 2,329 rushing yards, the third most ever in a season (including playoffs).

The Eagles are 14-1 since October, but that lone loss was to the Commanders in the game where Jalen Hurts was concussed. But given the lack of passing from the Eagles in the playoffs, it’s hard to determine just how big his return is to this matchup where things like the running game and takeaways are likely to be more decisive than Philly’s passing offense.

But it could be a great rematch between division rivals, and it’s the biggest game for Washington since the 1991 season. There’s a lot to be excited about here.

Since we have much more history and legacy talk on the AFC side, this NFC preview is going to cover some more general Championship Sunday research, including the history of rematches, a teaser of a new metric for finding frauds, rookie quarterbacks in championship games, and why this game should look different from the last two matchups between these NFC East foes.

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5, O/U 47.5)

The No. 6 Washington Commanders (14-5) will take on the No. 2 Philadelphia Eagles (16-2) this Sunday afternoon in Philadelphia. The Commanders just pulled off a shocking upset in Detroit against the top-seeded Lions, and they are the only road team to win this postseason. All other home teams are 8-0.

The 6.5-point spread is already a curious one since the spread was only Eagles -3.5 when these teams met in Week 11 on a Thursday night. It’s hard not to be impressed by Washington in this postseason run, but the home team with the superior defense, offensive line, and running game is historically set up well to win a game like this.

Also, it’s expected to be in the 40s and cloudy this Sunday in Philadelphia, so that’s great news. One snow game was enough last week.

NFL Conference Championship Game Rematches

Since 1978, there have been 63 rematches from the regular season in the Conference Championship Game. Commanders-Eagles will be the 64th and Bills-Chiefs will be the 65th this Sunday. Here are some notable stats from the last 63 rematches:

• The playoff record for the team that won the last meeting is 37-26 (.587).
• The home team in the last meeting was 42-21 (.667) in the regular season and 42-21 (.667) in the playoffs.
• The records for the 32 teams (like the Eagles and Chiefs) who were on the road in the regular season and home in the playoffs are 15-17 (.469) in the regular season (15-19 including losses by the Eagles and Chiefs) and 22-10 (.688) in the playoffs.
• The playoff record for the road loser switching venues in the title game is just 9-8 (.529).

This will also be the 17th time since 1978 that the Conference Championship Game is a rematch between division rivals who are meeting for a third time. In this case, we are only considering the most recent matchup as the record for the last game. The Eagles and Commanders have split home wins so far this year. Here are the stats on the 16 division rematches in the title game:

• The home team (Eagles) is 11-5 (.688) in the playoffs.
• The team who won the most recent matchup (Commanders) is 9-7 (.563) in the playoffs.
• The home winner of the last game (Commanders) is 4-4 in the playoffs (3-3 on the road).
• The team favored by more than 5 points (Eagles) in the playoffs is 6-2 SU and ATS.
• In the 11 cases where the same team was the underdog in both games (Commanders), that underdog is 5-6 in the previous game and 5-6 in the playoff rematch.
• Only the 1980 Raiders (against the Chargers) and 1999 Titans (against the Jaguars) were able to win both games as the underdog as the Commanders will attempt to do.

The Last Matchups and What Might Change Sunday

• 2024, Week 11: Eagles 26, Commanders 18
• 2024, Week 16: Commanders 36, Eagles 33

Even though these teams will be playing for a third time since November 14, you could argue their first two matchups may not translate much at all to this game given the circumstances.

In their first game, it was a short week (Thursday night), and while these are division rivals, the Commanders have a new coaching staff and the Eagles have new coordinators this year. There’s only so much you can install in a short week, and Daniels had that rib injury that probably didn’t feel great with fewer days to heal. He looked off in his first game against Vic Fangio’s defense, and it was the offense’s worst game of the season by EPA and tied for the fewest points (18) they’ve scored.

But the Eagles also had problems in that game with more missed field goals (two) than makes (one) into the third quarter before they exploded for 23 points on five drives behind some big runs by Barkley to win 26-18.

When the teams met again in Washington in Week 16, Daniels looked much sharper and was playing at a high level again. But the story of the game was when Jalen Hurts suffered a concussion on a big run in the first quarter. He tried to give a thumbs-up to the official to show he was okay, but he missed the rest of the game. Not to laugh at someone for having a concussion, but it’s hard not to find humor in him thinking this would work on the ref to stay in the game:

In hindsight, Jalen trying to stay in the game (clearly concussed) with a thumbs up to the ref is objectively hilarious pic.twitter.com/uRjVpDmKcE

— Pierre (@PierreB3_) December 23, 2024

That led to Kenny Pickett finishing the game, and he didn’t play poorly. In fact, the Eagles still scored 33 points and had a chance to put the game away late if DeVonta Smith didn’t drop a crucial pass. Barkley ran wild again with 150 yards and two touchdowns.

But you have to have some concerns with the Philadelphia defense. Even though the Commanders turned the ball over five times, they still scored 36 points with Daniels throwing five touchdowns, including the game-winner to Jamison Crowder with 0:06 left. Who knows what they could have done with better ball protection as Brian Robinson Jr. alone killed three early drives with two fumbles and a stuffed 4th-and-1 run.

Do the Eagles win that game if Hurts never gets concussed? Maybe. There was a lot of game left and they still led by double digits at times and scored 33 points, which is usually enough to win on the road.

The Commanders also held Barkley to just 41 rushing yards on his last 22 carries. Does that change with Hurts playing the whole game? Normally, you’d say yes, but what happens if his mobility is affected this week by his injury? If he isn’t that mobile, then this offense loses a big dimension there.

Back to the defense, the Eagles were very aggressive with blitzes on 37.8% of his dropbacks. He carved them up too with 10-of-15 passing for 173 yards and 3 touchdowns according to NFL Pro.

Will the Commanders utilize more empty set offenses this week? They used it 12.7% of the time in Week 11 and averaged just 1.7 yards per play with it. But in the Week 16 rematch, they used it on a season-high 22.2% of plays and averaged 11.7 yards per play to dominate the Eagles. However, the Commanders’ running backs had their worst game of the season with just 32 yards on 15 carries as Daniels (9 runs for 81 yards) had to carry them.

Injury Watch

The Eagles definitely have some injuries to keep an eye on this week. Hurts had that knee/ankle injury on an awkward sack, and he didn’t look that great moving around the rest of the game. In fact, he looked frozen on the sack in the end zone that produced a safety for the Rams. Hurts took 7 sacks in the game and many were of the long variety. His mobility will need to be better but you can expect him to play.

The other big injury is corner Quinyon Mitchell, the rookie sensation who left Sunday’s game with a shoulder injury. It sounds like he will also play on Sunday but may not be 100%. He did a good job of limiting Terry McLaurin in Week 11 before the Commanders were wise to move their top receiver around in Week 16 to get him away from Mitchell.

The Commanders are looking solid on the injury front. They’ll have running back Austin Ekeler for this matchup after he missed Week 16. Ekeler has surpassed 50 yards from scrimmage in both playoff games.

Corner Marshon Lattimore also should be feeling better after dealing with a hamstring injury this season. They gave him a workout in Week 16 with the A.J. Brown matchup, but he covered him tightly and made him work for those 97 yards on 15 targets.

Stats to Know

Here are some relevant and informative statistics for these teams heading into this matchup:

• There are three playoff games in NFL history where a rookie quarterback won on the road with over 200 passing yards and multiple touchdown passes, and Jayden Daniels has two of those games.
• The 2024 Commanders are the third team in NFL history to score at least 18 points in 19 straight games in one season, joining the 1983 Raiders (won Super Bowl) and 2017 Patriots (lost Super Bowl).
• The Eagles have only produced a 20.3% pressure rate against Daniels without blitzing this season (source: NFL Pro), but they have also been shredded by him when they do blitz. (11-of-17 for 193 yards, 3 TD).
• Washington has not lost a game by more than 8 points since Week 1 (37-20 in Tampa Bay).
• Washington’s 36 points in Week 16 are the most the Eagles have allowed all season and the only game where the Eagles have allowed more than 23 points since October.
• Washington is 2-0 on the road this postseason while the rest of the NFL is 0-8.
• The Commanders tied their season high with 481 offensive yards in Detroit last week.
• The Commanders are 13-1 when they produce at least 325 yards of offense this season.
• Washington has allowed its two highest rushing totals (228 and 211 yards) to the Eagles this season.
• By special teams EPA, Washington’s Week 11 game in Philly was the team’s best all year and the worst all year for the Eagles.
• The Eagles have lost two games this year after a receiver dropped a game-sealing pass against the Falcons (Saquon Barkley) and Commanders (DeVonta Smith).
• The Eagles are 14-0 when Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown both start and finish a game.
• Jalen Hurts is 6-1 against Washington in games he throws more than 20 passes.
• When facing a Dan Quinn defense (2023 Cowboys and 2024 Commanders), Hurts has scrambled 10 times in his last two games at home.
• The Eagles are 14-1 at home against playoff teams since 2022 (only loss: 2023 49ers).
• Hurts is 0-3 when he passes for 250+ yards in the playoffs and 4-0 when he passes for under 155 yards.
• The 2024 Commanders and 1996 Jaguars are the only teams in NFL history to win multiple road playoff games as an underdog of 3-plus points while allowing at least 20 points.

New NFL Team Metric: Fraud Alert

More to come on this than the rest of the NFL playoffs, but I wanted to introduce a new NFL team metric that I’ve been working on. I am tentatively calling it “Fraud Alert” to measure which teams may not be as great as their stats and records suggest due to three factors:

• Strength of Schedule (based on Simple Rating System at Pro Football Reference)
• Turnover Margin
• Average Starting Field Position (offense only)

My thought process has been that teams who feast on soft schedules and short fields thanks to turnovers (volatile plays that often regress to the mean) have inflated numbers and value. That’s not to say you want to rank poorly in these three areas, but teams who dominate here may not be as good as those who don’t, and that could be reflected in the postseason results. It also could identify teams who are being undervalued because of a tough schedule or a bad month of bounces with turnovers.

In comparing these numbers with the rest of the league for each season, I am able to come up with a Fraud Alert score where the higher the score, the more you should be questioning that team’s legitimacy.

I wanted to point it out now since three of the final four teams this year (Eagles, Commanders, and Bills) all rank at the top in Fraud Alert for 2024. In fact, here are the top 10 teams in 2024 Fraud Alert:

• Bills (+5.86) – Playing in the AFC Championship Game
• Eagles (+3.86) – Playing in the NFC Championship Game
• Commanders (+3.35) – Playing in the NFC Championship Game
• Texans (+2.92) – Lost AFC divisional in Kansas City (23-14)
• Steelers (+2.71) – Lost AFC wild card in Baltimore (28-14)
• Broncos (+2.13) – Lost AFC wild card in Buffalo (31-7)
• Bengals (+1.98) – Missed playoffs (9-8)
• Dolphins (+1.76) – Missed playoffs (8-9)
• Vikings (+1.57) – Lost NFC wild card vs. Rams (27-9)
• Packers (+1.54) – Lost NFC wild card in Philadelphia (22-10)

While it’s quite possible we get a Super Bowl matchup of the top two teams here, I can promise you Super Bowl success is not good for teams this high since 2002, and you’ll have to come back later to see where the Chiefs rank as they can still three-peat.

If you looked at the top 45 teams since 2002 in Fraud Alert, the only Super Bowl winner to this point is the team that was down 28-3 in Super Bowl LI. The 2016 Patriots are No. 11 in Fraud Alert (+5.23), and they sure were grateful they were playing the Falcons that night.

If you look at the 92 teams to reach Championship Sunday since 2002, the 2024 Bills, Eagles, and Commanders all appear in the top 15, which also includes the 2013 Seahawks, who won the Super Bowl in dominant fashion over Denver after surviving a scare from the 49ers in the title game.  

The following table shows the top 15 teams in Fraud Alert to reach their Conference Championship Game since 2002.

Year	Team	Fraud Score	Note	CG Spread	CG Final	vs. Line
2022	49ers	6.83	CGL	+2.5	L 31-7	No cover
2011	49ers	6.30	CGL	-2	L 20-17 OT	No cover
2024	Bills	5.86	TBD	+1.5	–	–
2002	Eagles	5.69	CGL	-4	L 27-10	No cover
2015	Panthers	5.39	SB L	-3	W 49-15	Covered
2016	Patriots	5.23	SB W	-5.5	W 36-17	Covered
2005	Panthers	4.31	CGL	+5.5	L 34-14	No cover
2006	Bears	3.88	SB L	-3	W 39-14	Covered
2024	Eagles	3.86	TBD	-6.5	–	–
2009	Vikings	3.75	CGL	+3.5	L 31-28 OT	Covered
2024	Commanders	3.35	TBD	+6.5	–	–
2011	Patriots	3.30	SB L	-7	W 23-20	No cover
2015	Patriots	3.26	CGL	-3	L 20-18	No cover
2012	Patriots	3.25	CGL	-7.5	L 28-13	No cover
2013	Seahawks	3.22	SB W	-4	W 23-17	Covered

So far, only two won the Super Bowl, three more lost it, and these teams were 5-7 SU/ATS in the Conference Championship Game. The Commanders and Eagles are guaranteed to produce one Super Bowl team this year, and they rank very close in Fraud Alert. We’ll see who gets the job done on Sunday.

The Keys to Victory

What does each team need to do to win this week?

Commanders – Trust Your QB and Hit Their QB

You probably thought I’d say slowing down Saquon Barkley is key for the Commanders, but what if you just acknowledge he’s going to get his yardage one way or another? In fact, I’d rather see him get it like he did in Week 16 if I’m a Commanders fan. Let him hit another home run (just one) but slow him down on those other carries to the point where he’s not that effective overall.

But you have to make Jalen Hurts uncomfortable and keep hitting him. That vaunted offensive line didn’t look so great in last week’s snow, which is supposed to make it harder for the pass rush to get going with everyone sliding around. But he didn’t look that aware of getting the ball out, and the passing game hasn’t been sharp at all for the Eagles in weeks. The Commanders need to pressure him and live with the results.

As for the other side of the ball, you have to lean on Jayden Daniels like he is a 5-year veteran in his prime and ready to lead your team to a championship. He’s facing a much better defense this week compared to the last two games, but he’s also seen them twice now. Even with some mistakes last time, he still threw five touchdowns.

Look, we know rookie quarterbacks are 0-5 in the Conference Championship Game since 1970 (0-4 on the road). But this is not a normal rookie, and he has been the best quarterback in the playoffs this year through two rounds. Plus, when you look at those five games in the past, none really compare to what Daniels brings to the table as a dual threat who is playing his best ball right now:

• Shaun King (1999 Buccaneers at Rams, L 11-6): Marginal rookie on a defensive-led team who hung in there with the GSOT Rams and threw two picks before we learned about the Bert Emanuel Rule.
• Ben Roethlisberger (2004 Steelers vs. Patriots, L 41-27): He ended New England’s 21-game winning streak earlier that season, but between Bill Cowher’s defense failing to stop the Patriots and a pick parade against Bill Belichick’s defense, the Steelers were knocked out at home by the strongest Patriots team in that era.
• Joe Flacco (2008 Ravens at Steelers, L 23-14): It was another tough grind between the two best defenses in football, but Flacco threw a pick-six to Troy Polamalu when he had a chance to lead a game-winning drive.
• Mark Sanchez (2009 Jets at Colts, L 30-17): Another quarterback who rode his defense to success, Mark Sanchez played a respectable game in Indy, but Peyton Manning had an all-time great game against an elite pass defense.
• Brock Purdy (2022 49ers at Eagles, L 31-7): We finally had a rookie (Mr. Irrelevant) playing great football on a loaded team in a huge showdown and it was ruined in a couple of snaps after a strip-sack of Purdy injured his elbow and he couldn’t throw the rest of the game as the 49ers were trounced.

Pretty crazy that the Eagles are in a position to go to another Super Bowl by beating a rookie quarterback at home, but let’s hope Daniels finishes the game this time and gives them all they can handle. He’s not a caretaker like Sanchez, Flacco, and King were. He’s not slumping like Roethlisberger was after hitting the rookie wall. He just needs to avoid the big hit that Purdy unfortunately couldn’t.

But everything from the no-huddle usage, the empty formations, the designed runs, and going for it on fourth downs should be on the table here. This kid has led you here, now let him make history.

Eagles – Disguise and Dissect

If you’re Vic Fangio, I think you’re content with the way you’ve stopped the running backs this year against Washington. But they’ll need to put a spy on Daniels and not let him run as freely. He’s been escaping to his right a lot and causing a lot of damage. He’s also red-hot against the blitz, so they need to be pretty careful in mixing things up and seeing if they can trick him in the biggest game of his life. But he does play with a calmness and he’s been very clutch with those five game-winning drives.

The offense still feels like the bigger question mark in Philadelphia because of these injuries late in the year to Hurts and how he’ll fare after all those sacks Sunday. The Washington pass rush is unlikely to sniff what the Rams managed, but they made Jared Goff uncomfortable behind a quality line too. Dan Quinn has defended some of the best in the game so he should have some things ready for Round 3 here.

Barkley and the ground game have been such a constant this year that you can feel pretty good about that, but what about the passing game? A.J. Brown has caught 3-of-10 targets for 24 yards this postseason, which is usually the kind of production he has well before halftime of one game. He’s had some drops too, including a touchdown opportunity last week.

I’m not saying Hurts needs to light it up this week, but the Eagles are 8-0 when he passes for 200 yards this season. He may need to do more to answer what Daniels is doing. But I think the Eagles need to stay balanced, work on getting the ball out quicker this week instead of letting Hurts play sitting duck if his mobility is impacted, and put together some of those long drives they’ve done so well this year that suck the soul out of the opponent.

I’m not necessarily advocating for shrinking the possessions to seven or eight per team, but if you believe in this talented roster and defense, you should feel fine about winning that kind of game. Just force the rookie quarterback into some mistakes that make those failed possessions hurt even more.

Hurts doesn’t need to throw for 300 yards or go bombs away on this defense to have success. Let him use Dallas Goedert over the middle who has been their best receiver this postseason, rely on Saquon, and keep doing the Tush Push in short yardage. They have more than enough options to win this game.

Best Bets and Prediction

History says the buck stops here for Washington. Trying to overcome the disparities in rushing, defense, and home field with a rookie quarterback is a tough ask in a Championship Game. We’ve already seen this Washington offense produce its season-worst game in this building, and we’ve seen them have a season-high five giveaways last time against that defense.

At the same time, you know there will be an NFL season where a rookie quarterback does break through to start a Super Bowl. Why not let it be the best rookie quarterback ever and the only team to beat the Eagles in their last 15 games?

I’m feeling Washington in this game to keep this run going right to the Super Bowl. It seems like no matter how good the Eagles are playing, they find themselves letting inferior teams hang around at home. They’ve done it with Cleveland, Jacksonville, Carolina, and even the Rams were just 13 yards away from pulling off an improbable comeback after the Eagles rushed for 285 yards with three long touchdown runs.

It’s a strange week to put your faith in Washington, but Daniels is a closer, and I’m backing him to make history and get this team to the Super Bowl.

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