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2025 NBA Eastern Conference Finals Preview: Who Has the Edge Between Knicks and Pacers?

Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar21/05/2025 - 10:17 am
Jalen Brunson #11 of the New York Knicks celebrates after making a three-point basket late during the fourth quarter against the Detroit Pistons in Game Six of the Eastern Conference First Round NBA Playoffs at Little Caesars Arena on May 01, 2025 in Detroit, Michigan. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement.
(Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)

The 2025 NBA playoffs already kicked off the Western Conference Finals last night with the Oklahoma City Thunder dominating the Minnesota Timberwolves in Game 1. But the Eastern Conference Finals get underway Wednesday night with the New York Knicks hosting the Indiana Pacers in Game 1 in a battle between the No. 3 and No. 4 seeds.

It’s a rematch of last year’s semifinals series that saw the Pacers win Game 7 in New York after superstar Jalen Brunson fractured his hand. But the Knicks were already down a lot in that game as they blew a 3-2 lead to Indiana, which just knocked off the Cavaliers in the semifinals. The Knicks were able to take out Boston, meaning neither of the top two seeds are left in the Eastern Conference Finals.

This series has the potential to be great as it rekindles this rivalry that was a big part of the 1990s when Reggie Miller and the Pacers had some very memorable games against Patrick Ewing’s Knicks, with director and Knicks superfan Spike Lee sitting courtside. There’s even a whole 30 for 30 documentary episode about Miller vs. Lee and the infamous “choke” sign that Miller flashed before a win, as well as his “8 points in 8 seconds” performance in another classic NBA finish.

There is bad blood between the fanbases as well. Last Friday night, a Pacers fan wore his Tyrese Haliburton jersey in the streets of New York and was hit by multiple trash bags as fans followed him in the streets. That fan, a firefighter, is reportedly getting the hook up from Haliburton to attend Game 4 in Indiana now.

But there is great potential for this series to be a memorable one, as it should be more competitive than Thunder-Timberwolves. The odds certainly show that as the Knicks are -144 favorites at FanDuel to win compared to +122 for the Pacers, who will need to steal home court in this series.

Suffice to say, the 2024-25 NBA season was rocked by the stunning Luka Doncic trade from Dallas to the Lakers in February. But it was actually last October’s 3-team trade involving Karl-Anthony Towns that has proved the most fruitful this season. It’s also looking like the rare win-win trade as the Knicks are in the ECF with KAT, while the Timberwolves are in the WCF with Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo heavily contributing to their success. The Hornets are still the Hornets, but you can’t win them all.

That’s why some are saying an NBA Finals between the Timberwolves and Knicks would really put that trade in the spotlight. However, the Timberwolves have their work cut out for them in OKC. Many are also saying a Thunder-Pacers Finals would bring the highest quality of basketball in a great offense vs. defense matchup, but let’s see what the Knicks have to say about that first.

We’ll preview this matchup as well as offer our Game 1 betting picks for Wednesday night.

A Rivalry Renewed: Pacers vs. Knicks

Including last year’s playoff series, the Knicks and Pacers have met 13 times in the last two seasons. The Pacers hold a slight edge with a 7-6 record while obviously having the bragging rights of winning Game 7 on the road last year when the team shot an incredible 53-of-79 (.671) from the field, the highest FG% in any playoff game in NBA history.

You can’t beat a team shooting 67% from the field. But when these teams met in the second game of the 2024-25 season in October, the Pacers were ice cold from deep, finishing 3-of-30 from 3 with the starters combining to go 0-for-17 in a 123-98 loss at Madison Square Garden.

Needless to say, that was the worst 3-point shooting game of the season for the Pacers. In the rematch a few weeks later in November at home, the Pacers were 21-of-46 from deep (45.7%), tied for their second-most made 3s in a game this season in a 132-121 win. The Pacers dropped 40 points in the fourth quarter as part of a huge comeback win.

In the rubber match in Indiana in February, the Knicks won every quarter on the way to a 128-115 win as Towns poured in 40 points in a game where Brunson only scored 8 points in 22 minutes. The Pacers were missing Myles Turner that day, too.

But the season series favors the Knicks at 2-1. More troubling for the Pacers is the fact that they were outshot in each game, and the Knicks shot at least .524 from the field and scored at least 121 points in all three games.

PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - NOVEMBER 14: Tyrese Haliburton #0 of the Indiana Pacers reacts against the Philadelphia 76ers at the Wells Fargo Center on November 14, 2023 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement.
(Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images)

These Teams Are Really Close in Quality

Neither team is particularly great on defense, as the Pacers were No. 13 and the Knicks were No. 14 in Defensive Rating this season. So, it could just come down to who shoots better, who gets more bench contributions, and who finishes in the clutch.

Brunson was the NBA’s Clutch Player of the Year award winner this season, but Haliburton is also 10-of-11 on game-tying or go-ahead field goals in the final 2:00 this season. The Pacers were also more impressive in their defeat of Cleveland than the way the Knicks beat Boston with two 20-point comebacks, another 14-point comeback, and, of course, it helped that Jayson Tatum tore his Achilles in Game 4.

But it makes sense why the Knicks are the slight favorite with home-court advantage in this series. They were No. 5 in Offensive Rating compared to No. 9 for the Pacers this year, even if the Pacers can look so efficient at times.

However, the issue of depth could be a significant one. The Knicks have been celebrated for loading up with Towns and Mikal Bridges this year, but New York’s starters are playing big minutes in the playoffs, with at least 35.7 minutes per game for everyone, with four starters at 37.0 minutes or higher. The bench hasn’t really been there for them.

The Pacers are a different story as Haliburton (34.1) is the only player even close to 35 minutes per game this postseason, as the Pacers have done a better job of controlling games against the Bucks and Cavaliers. They can also get solid minutes off the bench from Bennedict Mathurin, T.J. McConnell, and Obi Toppin. In fact, Mathurin had a game with a season-high 38 points against the Knicks in Indiana’s lone win earlier this year.

The Pacers are playing some great team ball right now, and head coach Rick Carlisle has the experience of a championship ring with the Dallas Mavericks in 2011. Knicks coach Tom Thibodeau is still seeking his first NBA Finals appearance in his 13th season as a head coach. You’d have to give the coaching edge to Indiana.

But these teams are definitely close in a lot of areas, which is why there should be high expectations for a compelling, long series.

MIAMI, FLORIDA - MARCH 22: Jalen Brunson #11 of the New York Knicks reacts during the third quarter of the game against the Miami Heat at Miami-Dade Arena on March 22, 2023 in Miami, Florida. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement.
(Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images)

Knicks vs. Pacers Game 1 Betting Picks

My gut is leaning towards the Pacers repeating their success last year and defeating the Knicks again to advance to the NBA Finals. The bench disparity could play a big factor down the stretch of this one.

But for Game 1, we’re looking at the Knicks as a 4.5-point home favorite with a total of 223.5 points.

That spread is tempting for the Pacers as they are 16-10 ATS (61.5%) as a road underdog this year, the fourth-best record in the NBA. These teams have the best spread records this postseason as the Pacers are 7-3 (70%) and the Knicks are 8-4 (66.7%).

I think I’d skip the spread since it’s a matter of seeing if the bench disparity is that important. It may not matter more until Game 2 since the Knicks have had some time to rest for this game, even if the Pacers had longer rest.

Instead, I’d focus on the over 223.5 points (-110) as neither defense is great, and the Knicks haven’t been held under 121 points yet against this team. When the Pacers are a road underdog this year, the over is 16-8-2 in their games, the third-highest rate in the NBA.

Here are some prop picks I also like for Game 1 (odds via FanDuel):

Tyrese Haliburton Under 27.5 Pts + Ast (-120): For as great as Haliburton has been at times, he can be maddeningly inconsistent as a scorer. Take, for example, the way he’s gone scoreless in two games this year, including a 0-for-8 performance at MSG in October. Then, a few weeks later, he dropped a season-high 35 points on the Knicks. But I think he goes under 20 points this time, and he only averaged 5.5 assists in the last four games against Cleveland.

Tyrese Haliburton stats in 365Scores
(Via 365Scores)

Bennedict Mathurin Over 10.5 Points (-112): Again, Mathurin scored 38 points in a game against the Knicks this year and has been over 10.5 points in all five playoff games where he played at least 17 minutes. Look for the Pacers to test that bench, and Mathurin will be a good scorer to hit his over in this one.

Karl-Anthony Towns Over 22.5 Points (-110): We’re predicting the over, so hopefully it’ll be a fun game like the one between these teams, where three players on each side scored at least 25 points. KAT has upped his scoring each game this year against Indiana with 21, 30, and 40 points. We’ll gladly go with the over 22.5 here.

Karl-Anthony Towns stats in 365Scores
(Via 365Scores)

Jalen Brunson Over 28.5 Points (-106): Here we go again with the game script of a high-scoring game where the Knicks lean heavily on starters and the Pacers get more balanced scoring with a good bench effort. Brunson will have to play big for the Knicks, and it’s not like a lack of scoring from Donovan Mitchell doomed Cleveland against this Indiana team. Brunson is a great playoff performer and should go over 28.5 points here.

Mitchell Robinson Over 6.5 Rebounds (-146): With Robinson back in the swing of things, the Knicks should continue their rebounding edge as the Pacers are not a great rebounding team this postseason and have lost that part of the matchup with the Knicks this year. Getting over 6.5 rebounds should be no problem for Robinson as long as he gets decent minutes.

Mikal Bridges 1+ Block and 1+ Steal (-125 for 2 picks): Mikal Bridges keyed New York’s upset wins in Games 1 and 2 against Boston by stealing the ball away from the Celtics’ stars. He’s done a great job for the Knicks this year and has six games this postseason with at least one block and a steal. I like for him to do it again here.

Josh Hart Over 12.5 Points (-120): Hart has had good success against the Pacers this year with 16, 20, and 30 (season high) points in the matchups. His offensive game isn’t always there as a scorer, but he’s gone over 12.5 points in 7-of-12 playoff games.

Here’s to hoping for a great series to lead into the NBA Finals.

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Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar21/05/2025 - 10:17 am