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Seattle Seahawks 2025 NFL Season Preview and Picks: Is Sam Darnold Legit Now or Will Old Ghosts Keep Haunting Him?

Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar21/07/2025 - 12:08 pm
(Photo by Stephen Maturen/Getty Images)

The Seattle Seahawks were certainly in need of shaking things up for 2025 as they have been a fairly stagnant NFL team for the last three years, relying on some late Geno Smith-led game-winning drives to stay just above .500 and see if it’s enough to qualify for the playoffs in a tough NFC West.

That 9-8 record was good enough for a wild card loss in 2022, but 9-8 and 10-7 weren’t even good enough for the tournament these last two years. The defense took a step forward in 2024 under rookie coach Mike Macdonald as expected, but even that “improvement” may have been a bit misleading. It also didn’t make up much for an offense that was losing some efficiency year over year since Smith’s breakout season in 2022.

Now, the Seahawks are sort of trying to make lightning strike twice. Geno Smith was a 2013 draft pick by the Jets. He didn’t work out well there; he bounced around a few teams, then found a home in Seattle.

Enter Sam Darnold, a 2018 first-round pick by the Jets, where he bombed. He’s bounced around a few teams, then in Year 7, he had his breakout moment with the Vikings last year after rookie J.J. McCarthy had season-ending meniscus surgery in the preseason. Darnold actually had one of the best “late bloomer” seasons ever at the quarterback position with 4,319 yards, 35 touchdowns, and he led Minnesota to a 14-3 record.

You could say Darnold’s 2024 season is better than any of Geno’s seasons. But the problem is the way it ended for Darnold. He looked terrible in the last two games, including the playoff loss against a Rams team he lost twice to, and now he’ll have to share a division with them as well as what should be a healthier San Francisco team and a competitive Arizona team.

The Seahawks may be bringing a different cast this year, but it sure does feel like they’ve made a lateral move at quarterback that won’t make the story any better. The sportsbooks are giving Seattle the longest odds (+550 at FanDuel) to win the NFC West, too, so they’re certainly not favored to win 10 games again despite a favorable schedule this year in playing both South divisions.

But let’s look at why Seattle may take a few steps back in Year 2 for Macdonald and the best Seahawks bets for 2025.

Seattle Seahawks Sam Darnold NFL

Previously on SEAHAWKS: Was the Defense a Mirage?

You have to think a big part of the reason the Seahawks moved on from Pete Carroll, the oldest coach in NFL history, and went with the youngest coach was the potential to modernize the defense and get them back to championship caliber. Carroll did not have a top 10 defense in Seattle in his last seven seasons.

In one year on the job, Macdonald had this defense ranked No. 6 in yards per drive allowed and No. 5 in points per drive allowed. That sounds great as did ranking 10th on third downs and ninth at giving up touchdowns in the red zone. They were mediocre in takeaways, but you can work at that. Leonard Williams balled out with 11 sacks, and Derick Hall had 8 sacks in his second year after none as a rookie.

But there was a lot of fool’s gold to this defense in 2024. In the NFL, a good number of defenses play to the level of the competition, and sometimes the schedule is just favorable for that. Consider the 3-0 start for Seattle:

  • They got Denver’s Bo Nix in his NFL debut, and the rookie really struggled before turning things on in the second half of the season.
  • Week 2 was a trip to New England where the Patriots were still starting journeyman Jacoby Brissett and not trying to throw the ball much in a game that went to overtime against what was a 4-win team at season’s end.
  • In Week 3, the Seahawks caught a break in hosting Miami without Tua Tagovailoa (concussion), and instead they got an easy 24-3 win after Skyler Thompson and Tim Boyle stunk up the joint.

That puts 3-0 in perspective. Then one week later, fewer teams have ever been given a stronger dose of reality than the 2024 Seahawks. They had to play the Lions in Detroit on a Monday night, and in that game, Jared Goff became the first quarterback ever to complete 100% of his passes (min. 15 attempts), going 18-for-18 for 292 yards. There was a trick play too, so Detroit was actually 19-for-19 passing in the 42-29 win.

The Seahawks compounded that loss with a terrible home loss to the Giants, then gave up 36 points to the 49ers in another loss. Most of the good offenses did what they wanted against Seattle, including the Bills and Packers. Darnold also threw a game-winning touchdown pass to Justin Jefferson in a 27-24 win in Week 16 that was damaging to Seattle’s playoff hopes.

Seattle’s 6-3 win over Chicago was great for the (defensive) stats, but even with this team barely beating the Rams’ backups in Week 18 to get to 10-7, it still wasn’t enough for the playoffs.

The 2024 Seahawks were 10-0 when they allowed fewer than 26 points and 0-7 when they gave up that number or higher. It wasn’t a team that played much complementary football, and it basically played up or down to the competition.

The only two wins Seattle had against winning teams were the Broncos in Week 1, long before we knew they were any good, and then in Week 18 against a Rams team that was playing backups. That’s one way to really take the “quality” out of quality wins.

Seattle Seahawks Offseason Review

The Seahawks have already changed offensive coordinators under Macdonald. Ryan Grubb is off to Alabama after his one season, and Klint Kubiak has replaced him. Yes, a Kubiak offspring means the Shanahan system with play-action passing, and we saw some of that in two explosive weeks for the Saints last year when Klint Kubiak was their OC before everyone started getting injured.

Also, this Kubiak has experience with Sam Darnold. He was the 49ers’ passing game coordinator in 2023 when Darnold was there backing up Brock Purdy. Of course, all eyes will be on him as the undisputed starter in Seattle this year.

But after one of the most unexpected breakout seasons in some time, should we trust Darnold? Should we ever fully trust Darnold?

MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA - SEPTEMBER 22: Quarterback Sam Darnold #14 of the Minnesota Vikings passes the ball in the second quarter of the game against the Houston Texans at U.S. Bank Stadium on September 22, 2024 in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
(Photo by Stephen Maturen/Getty Images)

Is Sam Darnold Legit Now or Will Old Ghosts Keep Haunting Him?

The dirty little secret about great quarterback play is that it usually only takes one or two seasons of playing to see that greatness show up. Josh Allen needed three years in 2020, but that’s more of an outlier that everyone will now cling to in the hopes their guy is going to break out too (see Bryce Young in Carolina this year).

But a Year 7 breakout quarterback? That’s rarified air. Darnold had three years with the Jets (2018-20), where he never really did anything that well to give you hope. He had a few good games with the Panthers (2021-22) but couldn’t be trusted to hold the starting job. He was just a backup in San Francisco in 2023, then he won the starting job after rookie J.J. McCarthy needed season-ending surgery in the preseason.

Darnold took his opportunity and ran wild with it. Not only did he throw for way more yards and touchdowns than ever before, but he tied his career total from 2018-23 with five game-winning drives in 2024, a big reason why the Vikings were a 14-win team with a chance at the No. 1 seed.

There aren’t that many examples of a quarterback having their breakout year this late in their career. Some of the best examples happened in the NFC West with Alex Smith in San Francisco (2011) and Geno Smith in Seattle (2022). However, a big difference there is that those quarterbacks didn’t switch teams. Smith was having success with the 49ers in 2012 before a concussion ended his season in favor of Colin Kaepernick. He joined the Chiefs a year later and eventually got better there.

Smith was able to start the next two years in Seattle, though you could say there were diminishing returns after his stellar 2022 season. But he’s with the Raiders now and is generally viewed as a safe pick to throw for 4,000 yards and keep the team competitive most weeks.

Darnold will likely continue to have doubters because of how poorly he ended 2024. In fact, the Lions and Rams were 4-0 against Darnold’s Vikings last year, who otherwise were 14-0 against everyone else. Obviously, Darnold has to face the Rams twice this year in division games, but the Lions are at least not on the schedule.

Darnold lost 82 yards on sacks against the Rams in the playoffs, the third most in a game since 1990.

Darnold did compensate for some shaky offensive line play in Minnesota last year, but he couldn’t do it in the wild-card round against the Rams. The Seahawks have a young offensive line that is trying to get better, but maybe their stud can be 2025 first-round left guard Grey Zabel (North Dakota State), a physical and versatile player who has had Seahawks great Steve Hutchinson as a mentor.

What Changes for Darnold in Seattle?

Did Darnold play in a quarterback-friendly offense in Minnesota under coach Kevin O’Connell? Sure, but he’ll also have something similar and familiar to him with Kubiak in Seattle. Did Darnold have great receiving talent around him? Yes, Justin Jefferson is as good as anyone right now, and don’t forget Jordan Addison and tight end T.J. Hockenson.

That’s one notable difference in Seattle. This receiving corps last year had D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba as a very good wide receiver trio that fit different roles well. Tight end Noah Fant chipped in 500 receiving yards as the fourth option.

But Seattle has blown this unit up. Metcalf was traded to Pittsburgh, Lockett signed with the Titans after a decade in Seattle, and the team just released Fant over the weekend.

The Fant move likely isn’t a big deal. The Seahawks have a second-year player in A.J. Barner, and they drafted rookie Elijah Arroyo (Miami) in the second round, and he could be an explosive player on those play-action snaps.

But the wide receivers are undoubtedly going to be a downgrade for Darnold. He won’t have a great 50/50 ball catcher like Jefferson anymore. He won’t be able to enjoy the freaky athletic nature of Metcalf or the reliable hands and routes of Lockett. JSN is solid, but he’s more of a possession receiver and a questionable No. 1 target to build around.

The Seahawks signed Cooper Kupp in free agency from the Rams, but he’s 32 years old, and his numbers the last three years are well down from his incredible 2021 season. He also has a long history of injuries. He can still be good, but it’s not the same Kupp that the Rams had years ago.

The Seahawks also signed Marquez Valdes-Scantling, or MVS (Mistakes vs. Speed). That’s a poor man’s answer for replacing Metcalf on big plays down the field, but he made some big plays for the Saints last year, so Kubiak knows him already.

It’s far from the worst receiving corps in the NFL, and if Kupp and MVS played up to their full potential and we see the best version yet of JSN, then it could even be a good group of weapons as long as the tight ends step up too. But that’s a lot of hoping for things to work out with a quarterback not known to have a track record of making the players around him better.

It’s hard to see Darnold repeating last year’s success in Seattle this year, but the 2024 season should at least set him up for a long career with plenty of chances to show it wasn’t just a massive one-year outlier.

The Defensive Changes

We know the Seahawks used free agency and the draft to make huge changes with the offense, but what about that defense for Macdonald?

The pass rush was solid last year, but they’ll need to be even better in those division games against pocket passers like Brock Purdy and Matthew Stafford. The Seahawks added DeMarcus Lawrence (Cowboys) and Uchenna Nwosu (Chargers) as veteran edges that should help if they stay healthy and acclimate quickly. Not sure how that meshes with what Hall and Boye Mafe achieved last year, but consider it a deeper position for the Seahawks in 2025.

Byron Murphy was the team’s first-round pick at defensive tackle last year, and he certainly has a lot of room for improvement next to Leonard Williams this season. We haven’t seen him fully arrive yet. This year’s top defensive pick in the draft was second-round safety Nick Emmanwori. He’s a speedster and great athlete, but we’ll see if he can get the fundamentals down and earn playing time on what is a veteran-heavy defense.

Corner Devon Witherspoon had better coverage numbers in his rookie year, but he’s still growing too and should be the secondary’s best player in 2025.

Best Bets for the 2025 Seahawks

It’s tough to be a team that’s coming off a 10-win season and you’re still projected to finish last in your division. That’s just what happens when your division is as good as the NFC West. The Rams have great players on both sides of the ball and that front seven that harassed Darnold in the postseason should get even better.

The 49ers can’t possibly be more injured than last year when one of their healthiest wideouts (Ricky Pearsall) was shot in a robbery before the season. The Cardinals are also a potentially good team if Marvin Harrison Jr. makes a big leap in Year 2, and they added to their defense in the draft and free agency.

The Seahawks have made some big changes, but it’s hard to think Darnold throwing to Kupp/MVS/JSN and inexperienced tight ends is better than Geno chucking it to his wide receiver trio last year. It’s a lateral move at best, and Darnold, with his career 6-17 (.261) record at fourth-quarter comeback opportunities, may not be able to match the success he had in that area last year.

As always, we check the schedule:

  • By playing a second-place schedule despite missing the playoffs, that means the Seahawks have to go to Pittsburgh (D.K. Metcalf revenge game), go to Washington (Jayden Daniels is an MVP candidate), and host the Vikings (chance for Darnold to show them what they’re missing in Week 13). That’s tough.
  • There are certainly winnable games with the NFC South and the AFC South on the schedule, taking advantage of those rookie quarterback situations like the Titans (Cam Ward) and Saints (Tyler Shough), or the fact that Indianapolis and Carolina may still not be good teams.
  • But the six NFC West games are tough, and the Seahawks have to go to Arizona for a Thursday night game early in the year (Kyler Murray’s best time), and they’re in San Francisco in Week 18 (not ideal).

I like Macdonald’s potential as a coach enough to think he keeps this team very competitive in most games. This is a division where every team could win at least eight games, but my priorities are with the 49ers and Rams as the cream of the crop. I’d take the Seahawks to win over 7.5 games because of the weaker divisions they’ll face, but I would not pick this team to make the playoffs.

  • NFL Pick: Seattle Seahawks over 7.5 wins (-135) at FanDuel
  • NFL Pick: Seattle Seahawks to miss playoffs (-225) at FanDuel

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Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar21/07/2025 - 12:08 pm