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WNBA 2025 Midseason Review: Are We Headed for a Liberty vs. Lynx Rematch in the Finals?
> A'ja WilsonAcesBasketballWNBA
> A'ja WilsonAcesBasketballWNBA
The WNBA has reached the midpoint of the 2025 regular season with the All-Star Game to come this Saturday in Indianapolis. The New York Liberty are still on track to repeat as champions, but it’s been an eventful start to the season for many teams and players around the league.
We’ve seen plenty of physical altercations on the court, some players living up to preseason expectations, some big injuries, an expansion team doing better than expected, and improved ratings once again for a growing league that is seeking expansion soon in other cities.
But with the Skills Challenge, 3-Point Shooting Contest, and WNBA All-Star Game coming up this weekend, we thought we’d take the time to revisit some of our preseason storylines, update the WNBA championship odds, and check in on how things are going with half a season to go before the playoffs this fall.
Table of Contents
WNBA 2025 Championship Odds at the All-Star Break
Here are the current odds from FanDuel to win the 2025 WNBA championship. We have included what the odds were before the season started from May in parenthesis.
- New York Liberty (+170; opened +220)
- Minnesota Lynx (+210; opened +370)
- Phoenix Mercury (+600; opened +1200)
- Indiana Fever (+750; opened +390)
- Atlanta Dream (+1700; opened +3200)
- Seattle Storm (+1800; opened +2900)
- Las Vegas Aces (+2100; opened +370)
- Golden State Valkyries (+7000; opened +50000)
- Washington Mystics (+12000; opened +39000)
- Los Angeles Sparks (+34000; opened +5000)
- Chicago Sky (+50000; opened +6500)
- Dallas Wings (+50000; opened +6500)
- Connecticut Sun (+50000; opened +50000)
Liberty vs. Lynx Rematch in the Finals?
At the top of the league, you can say not much has changed from last season and from before the season. In 2024, the New York Liberty (32-8) and Minnesota Lynx (30-10) finished with the best records and met in a thrilling WNBA Finals, which the Liberty won in overtime in Game 5 to win their first championship.
Fast forward to 2025, and they had the two highest odds to win the championship before the opening game, and they currently have the best odds and records at the All-Star break.
However, while the Liberty have a slight edge in championship odds (+170 vs. +210), the Lynx (20-4) have a better record than the Liberty (15-6) and could claim the top seed in the playoffs this year.
The Lynx are having an elite season as they are No. 1 in Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating. Napheesa Collier is running away with the MVP odds (-550 at FanDuel) as her seventh season has been her best yet with 23.9 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 3.5 assists per game. She is also shooting a ridiculous 95.4% at the free throw line.
The Lynx are 12-0 at home as long as we ignore that time they blew a big early lead and lost by 15 points to the Indiana Fever with the Commissioner’s Cup on the line. That game does not count in the 44-game regular season standings.
But that misstep aside, the Lynx are delivering halfway through the season. However, we have yet to see them face the Liberty this season, and they’ll have four meetings coming up in the next few weeks, including three games during the stretch of August 10 through August 19. That’ll be the real litmus test for where these teams are at should they meet in the Finals again.
The Liberty came out hot with a 9-0 start and the No. 1 defense before losing badly to the Fever on June 14. Since then, the Liberty are just 6-6 and All-Star Sabrina Ionescu is shooting a career-low .309 from 3-point territory. But even with this mediocre stretch, the Liberty are still No. 2 on both ends of the court in rating.
But you might think the odds would have shifted more in favor of Minnesota to reward this start. Guess the Lynx will just have to show up in the four head-to-head matches to really turn the odds in their favor as the new favorite to win it all this season.
Simply based on the first half of the season, it wouldn’t at all be a surprise if we get a rematch in October.
Phoenix Rising, Aces Folding, Storm Brewing?
The Las Vegas Aces were figured to be a main contender coming into the season behind 3-time MVP A’ja Wilson. While she’s still producing, the Aces are just 11-11 at the break and rank below average on both ends of the court. Losing another good scorer like Kelsey Plum (Sparks) has hurt, leaving the Aces with just the seventh-highest odds (+2100) to win another championship.
The team that’s benefited from Las Vegas’ decline is the Phoenix Mercury. A solid postseason-ready team to start the season, they have exceeded expectations with a 15-7 start. Satou Sabally joined the team from Dallas this year and is an All-Star with a career-high 19.1 points per game. Alyssa Thomas is second in MVP odds (+500 at FanDuel).
The Mercury are sound on both ends, and if there’s a reason to believe in them in the postseason, they are 2-0 against the Liberty with a pair of wins in June already. They’re 1-2 against the Lynx but at least they can say they have a win over each of the main contenders.
But if the Mercury aren’t your cup of tea, then the Seattle Storm are another dark horse contender this year. Led by Skylar Diggins, they might be the oldest team in WNBA history as they have four players aged 34 or older who have played at least 400 minutes this season. But they play sound defense, and they have a 10-point win over the Lynx where they dropped 94 points, and they are also 2-0 against the Liberty this season.
Give It Up for Golden State
The Golden State Valkyries are the WNBA’s newest expansion team, and they had the longest odds (+50000) to win the championship coming into the season. That’s not surprising given how hard it usually is for expansion teams to compete right away, and it’s not like the Valkyries were awarded a No. 1 overall pick to take a prospect like UConn’s Paige Bueckers.
With that said, the Valkyries have done a pretty solid job under rookie coach Natalie Nakase despite playing one of the toughest schedules so far. They have slipped up lately, going into the break on a 3-game losing streak, but they are 10-12, ranked No. 9 in the standings, where the top eight teams qualify for the postseason.
With a better second half, the Valkyries absolutely could sneak into the playoffs in Year 1. They also are the first women’s sports team to be valued at $500 million, which is already a great return on investment ($30M) in just two years. Some believe the Valkyries could become the first women’s team worth $1 billion in short order here.
Indiana Fever: Is Caitlin Clark Just Snake-bitten This Season?
We went almost 1,200 words without directly mentioning Caitlin Clark once, so a round of applause for that. Yes, she is still by far the league’s most popular player, and some have estimated that the ratings are dropping 50% in games if she’s inactive as injuries (quad and groin) have been ruining her second year for the Indiana Fever.
This has been a very strange, very physically demanding first half to a season for Clark, who has experienced her highest of highs and the lowest of lows in her brief WNBA career. She has still shown she absolutely can rise to the moment, but whether it’s the weight of expectation or trying to play through the injuries with a new coach and some new players, she has struggled a lot after seemingly finding a consistent groove in the second half of her rookie season.
In terms of rising to the moment, Clark opened this season with a triple-double (20 points, 10 rebounds, 10 assists) in a blowout win over Angel Reese’s Chicago Sky to tap into that personal rivalry. Then after turning the ball over 10 times in a 2-point loss to the Liberty, Clark was injured for the first time with her quad keeping her out.
When Clark returned on June 14, she had the best win of her WNBA career by dropping 32 points (25 by halftime) on the 9-0 Liberty and their top-ranked defense, handing them their first loss of the year.
Three days later, Clark scored 20 points, but she hasn’t done that again in the last month as the groin injury cost her time, and she tweaked her groin again on Tuesday night, which caused her to miss Wednesday night’s showdown with the Liberty.
Clark has been getting into it with the refs in games this season, and her brother even said in a since-deleted tweet that her latest injury is a result of the officiating.
It is unclear if Clark will be able to participate in the 3-point shooting contest as she was scheduled to do, or if she’ll play in the WNBA All-Star Game on Saturday, in which she was selected as a team captain along with Napheesa Collier.
It just feels like Clark is snakebitten this year, and it’s leading to very inconsistent play, which is in turn hurting the Fever get on a run. Indiana is 12-11 but only have one 3-game winning streak that was just snapped without Clark in the lineup Wednesday night.
With that said, the Fever have two of the best wins of any WNBA team this season, taking down the 9-0 Liberty and then coming back to beat the Lynx without Clark for the Commissioner’s Cup. If they can ever get Clark to stay healthy, they can go on a run here and make some noise in the playoffs, which is probably why they still have the fourth-best odds to win the championship (+750), which is where they ranked in May.
But it just doesn’t seem like health is willing to let this happen in 2025. Clark also has produced one of the wildest statistical splits for her 3-point shooting that you’ll ever see.
- In home games this season, Clark is 27 of 69 (.391) from 3-point range.
- In road games this season, Clark is 2 of 35 (.057) from 3-point range.
Hard to fathom how that’s even possible, but that’s just the kind of season Clark and the Fever are having so far. The game needs her to stay healthy. Whether the league wants to admit it or not, it desperately needs her healthy for these games, and it would be a huge bummer if she can’t participate in the All-Star weekend festivities in front of the Indianapolis fans.
Angel Reese’s Turnaround
It is actually possible to talk about Caitlin Clark without bringing up Angel Reese, but we have to do it as she’s a great example of the fluctuations you should expect from a young player who is still developing.
The Chicago Sky were a coin flip to make the playoffs this year, but they are 7-15 and it’s not looking good for them right now after a bad start under their new coach. Reese started the season shooting even worse than last year when she did a poor job at the basket.
I criticized the mainstream analysis around Reese a year ago when people were focusing on her double-double streak but not the way she shoots so poorly, grabs a lot of rebounds on her own misses, and it was leading to a losing record for the Sky. They were just 6-9 during her record 15-game double-double streak.
Flash forward to this season, and Reese was still a dominant rebounder, but she seemingly made no progress on her finishing under the basket. Against the Liberty in the second game of the season, Reese was 0-for-8 from the field and scored 2 points in a 25-point blowout loss.
Through nine games, the Sky were 2-7 with Reese shooting .363 from the field – abysmal results. But after she logged a triple-double against a bad Connecticut team, that seemed to turn her season around. Suddenly, she’s playing like a legitimate All-Star who is not only a dominant rebounder, but her shots are falling better and she’s expanding her range and getting her assists up.
Reese in her last 12 games: 16.7 points, 13.3 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 1.4 steals. 0.8 blocks, .500 FG%, .848 FT%.
You can win with those numbers. Granted, the Sky are still 5-7 in those games, but they have other issues besides Reese that can take care of themselves down the road. What’s important is she’s playing much better, and she’s even turned the “Mebounds” criticism of her rebounding her own shots into a lucrative merchandise opportunity. She’s also on the cover of NBA 2K26 (WNBA version), and she has her first shoe deal with Reebok.
She’s really winning everywhere but in the team record department.
Paige Bueckers Living Up to Expectations in Dallas
Not sure what Dallas did to deserve to land both No. 1 overall picks this year in Cooper Flagg (Mavericks) and Paige Bueckers (Wings), but that happened. Flagg is a big favorite to win the NBA Rookie of the Year award, and Bueckers is running away with that award as expected in the WNBA. She has -6000 odds at FanDuel right now, so that’s a lock.
Bueckers was a success at UConn, which is a double-edged sword since you’re always expected to win big when you go to that school. However, getting to start for that basketball squad is a sign that you’re an elite prospect yourself or else you wouldn’t be going to UConn.
Bueckers was going to get her shot to prove her value away from UConn this season, and we’ve already seen glimpses of how she can become the guard that rivals Clark for years to come. She beat Clark by one game to become the fastest player to 200 points and 50 assists/rebounds.
She is already an All-Star, and she’s averaging 18.3 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 5.4 assists on .456/.339/.853 shooting. Even in her third WNBA game, she dropped 10 assists in a 4-point loss to an elite Minnesota defense.
The Wings are only 5-13 when Bueckers plays, but that’s okay in Year 1. You expect that from such a team. The wins will come later. Right now, it’s just about Bueckers getting better and better, and her mid-range shot is legit.
Basketball in Dallas may have lost Luka Doncic, but the future is bright with Bueckers and Flagg.
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