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2025 NBA Finals Game 3 Picks: Are the Pacers Already in Big Trouble Against the Thunder?

Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar11/06/2025 - 11:00 am
Tyrese Haliburton #0 of the Indiana Pacers celebrates a basket against the New York Knicks during the second quarter in Game Six of the Eastern Conference Finals of the 2025 NBA Playoffs
(Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)

The 2025 NBA Finals certainly got off to a memorable start as the Oklahoma City Thunder tasted what it’s like when the Indiana Pacers pull off one of their devil luck comebacks. Unfortunately, Game 2 was a great example of why the Thunder set a single-season record for margin of victory as the game never felt close after the second quarter.

We already got the Indiana dark magic comeback and the classic OKC blowout in the first two games out of the way. What’s next in a pivotal Game 3 as the series shifts to Indiana this Wednesday night?

Despite the venue switch, the Pacers are still a 5-point home underdog for Game 3 with a total of 228.5 points. The Thunder are -650 to win the series, which is only down a hair from -700 before Game 1.

This is not a must-win game for the Pacers by any means. Sure, Game 4 is must win if they lose here, but they need to show us something better after getting outplayed for at least six of the first eight quarters in this series.

We have six Game 3 betting picks that also serve as analysis of how things are going in the NBA Finals so far. The Thunder winning in six games was our pick for this series, and at least we know it won’t be a sweep.

1. Tyrese Haliburton Must Score Early for Pacers

One of the clearest things from Games 1-2 is that the Pacers need Tyrese Haliburton to have a much larger impact as a scorer early in the game. We know it’s more in his nature to be the facilitator for this offense, but his paltry totals won’t get it done in this series.

Haliburton got away with only scoring 14 points in Game 1 because of the clutch basket he made with 0.3 seconds left to win the game for Indiana again. He’s having the most incredible clutch postseason for arguably any player we’ve ever seen in the NBA.

But in Game 2, Haliburton hit an early 3 and didn’t score again until late in the third quarter, which is unacceptable for a player who is trying to break into the top tier of the league. He only started getting comfortable with taking more shots in the fourth quarter where he was 5-of-6 for 12 points. He actually ended up leading the team with 17 points, but it didn’t matter because the Pacers couldn’t get it close enough in the second half.

We’ll see if Haliburton can turn it on at home. There was a weird narrative this postseason that he plays better on the road, but that’s just not true this season when you look at his home/road splits:

  • Haliburton at home: 20.2 points, 9.9 assists, .499 FG%, .415 3P%, +7.8 PM
  • Haliburton on road: 17.0 points, 8.5 assists, .445 FG%, .360 3P%, +0.8 PM

That’s better across the board at home as his plus-minus is a full 7.0 points better at home. Then when you look at this postseason, Haliburton’s had 5-of-8 of his 20-point games at home while he’s been under 20 points in 10 games with 7 of those on the road.

He should score more at home and most of his big assist games are at home when this offense is clicking. Haliburton has to know he needs to get more aggressive early, and maybe those shots he was taking late in the game when he started getting closer to the basket instead of settling for 3s will be beneficial.

I’m not saying I’d bet the house on him to be Indiana’s first basket scorer or that he’ll surely go over 4.5 points in the first quarter (+124 at FanDuel), but I like the idea of him getting a 3 and a layup in the first 12:00 of Game 3.

More than that, I like his over for points (17.5) and assists (7.5) in this game as he gets closer to the 20 point/10 assist player he has all the potential to be on a consistent basis.

NBA Pick: Tyrese Haliburton Over 4.5 1st Quarter Points (+124) at FanDuel

NBA Pick: Tyrese Haliburton Over 17.5 Points (-104) at FanDuel

NBA Pick: Tyrese Haliburton Over 7.5 Assists (-158) at FanDuel

2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on a Tear: Can Anyone Stop Him?

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander #2 of the Oklahoma City Thunder attempts a jump shot against Tyrese Haliburton #0
(Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)

No matter what you thought of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder before this series, you have to admit he’s on a tear as a scorer right now. This is some Michael Jordan type stuff as he’s averaging 32.7 points on .502 FG% in the 10 games since this team was tied at 2-2 with Denver in the semifinals.

He’s already scored 38 and 34 points in the first two games of the Finals, the most ever by a player in his first two NBA Finals games. Impressive stuff as he seemingly is getting all the shots he wants.

In Game 1, this worked well for Indiana as SGA scored 38 points on 30 shots, which is respectable efficiency. However, the Thunder still lost because the rest of the team shot poorly as it was barely a 40% night for OKC in Game 1. But in Game 2, SGA was even more efficient with 34 points on 21 shots. But they won easily because he had 8 assists as his teammates shot way better.

Hell, Alex Caruso scored 20 points off the bench, 3 more points than anyone on Indiana had in Game 2. That shouldn’t carry over to Game 3 in Indiana, but this could be one of those series where you let SGA get his and just hope the lesser players around him have bad nights.

But that’s why I’m still on board with SGA continuing his streak of four straight games with at least 34 points, and his points line just happens to be over/under 33.5 points in this game. Give me the over.

NBA Pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 33.5 Points (-120)

3. Who Steals the Show (And the Ball) in Game 3 of the NBA Finals?

It’s not nearly as accurate to refer to the Thunder as “Free Throw Merchants” as it is to call them “Turnover Merchants” as that’s the area of the game where they stake their historic dominance on the scoreboard. They protect the ball the best and put pressure on you to force the most turnovers and deflections by far.

But it’s been a weird series for turnovers so far. In Game 1, the Pacers had 19 turnovers at halftime, a disgusting number. But they cut that number to 5 in the second half, which allowed them to come back. Also, their top-ranked transition defense this postseason helped limit the damage their early turnovers did as OKC only scored 11 points off those 24 turnovers, allowing Indiana to win the game despite being -17 in turnover differential.

In Game 2, the Pacers had 15 turnovers to 14 for the Thunder. While it wasn’t the driving story of the game by any means, the Thunder turned these mistakes into more points than they did in Game 1, and it was notable that 5-of-15 turnovers for the Pacers were committed by Haliburton, who has been historically good at having games with no turnovers.

You know the Thunder’s approach isn’t changing on the road and they’ll still be relentless with the pressure. I’ve been having some success with betting on players to get multiple steals in these games as we’ve seen SGA have 3 and 4 steals already in the first two games. Even Haliburton had 2 steals in Game 2 and Andrew Nembhard had 3 steals for the Pacers.

But the player I’m waiting on to shine is Jalen Williams on the Thunder. He’s not shot the ball well in either game and he’s only a +1 on the court over the two games so far. But he’s had 3+ steals in 5 playoff games this year. He hasn’t had more than one steal in his last three games. The last time he’s gone four games without multiple steals was in the beginning of March, and the last time before that was late December.

I think he’ll get his hands involved in some big plays on the road in this one, and he’ll get multiple steals for the Thunder.

NBA Pick: Jalen Williams to Record 2+ Steals (+138) at FanDuel

4. Which Pascal Siakam Shows Up in Game 3 vs. Thunder?

Pascal Siakam was the MVP of the Eastern Conference Finals, and I thought he had good value at over +2000 odds for MVP of this series if the Pacers had any shot of pulling this one out.

But he’s going to need a major scoring uptick like one of those 30-point games he had against the Knicks. He’s a -25 in this series, and while his rebounding has been good (17 boards already), he has yet to score 20 points in either game as someone who has all the ability to lead the Pacers in scoring on any given night.

But maybe if Haliburton can crank up the aggression and get the offense humming at home in front of the fans, this could be Siakam’s night to shine. I like him to go over 26.5 for a Pts + Reb combo bet. How does 20 points and 7 rebounds sound?

NBA Pick: Pascal Siakam Over 26.5 Pts + Reb (-120) at FanDuel

5. Three Ballin’, Now Who’s Three Ballin’?

The Pacers have shown how deadly the 3-point shot can be at making a comeback this season. Aaron Nesmith went nuclear in Game 1 against the Knicks to key that comeback, and Obi Toppin was a surprise pick to hit 5 3s in Game 1 of this series. That effort matched the 5 3s that Luguentz Dort made that night for the Thunder.

Go figure, Toppin and Dort both finished with 3 points in Game 2 as regression hit hard. That’s why they’re traditionally role players on these teams and you can’t expect them to do that again.

Who steps up from 3 in Game 3? I’m going to go with Andrew Nembhard for the Pacers. The ABC broadcasters referring to him as “Playoff Andrew” was cringeworthy, but it’s true that Nembhard has 5 games this postseason where he made at least 3 triples after doing it zero times in 65 regular-season games this season.

In this series so far, Nembhard is 2-of-6 and 1-of-4 from deep. I’m not jumping on the +450 odds for him to nail a trio of 3s in this one, but the value for him to hit a pair at home is solid.

NBA Pick: Andrew Nembhard 2+ Made Threes (+142) at FanDuel

6. Who Wins Game 3 of the NBA Finals?

If you’re Indiana and you’re a little nervous about your chances after Game 2, consider this:

  • Denver is the only team to really push the Thunder this year, taking that semifinals series to seven games.
  • In Game 1, Denver pulled off an improbable comeback win in OKC in the final seconds with a clutch shot from Aaron Gordon.
  • In Game 2, the Nuggets were completely blown out by 43 points in a 149-106 loss to even the series.
  • But in Game 3, the Nuggets again came through in the fourth quarter and won the game in overtime to take a 2-1 lead.
  • In the pivotal Game 4, the Nuggets led by 8 points in the fourth quarter before the Thunder saved their season with a comeback win to tie the series 2-2.
  • In Game 5, the Nuggets again played really well on the road but squandered a 44-point game from Nikola Jokic to fall behind 3-2.
  • Denver won Game 6 but was blown out by 32 points in Game 7.

The Nuggets were less than a quarter away from going up 3-1 on the Thunder in that series. It didn’t matter that they were blown away by 43 points in a game. For as dominant as the Thunder have looked at times in this series, they haven’t been able to open up those massive 30 and 40-point leads on the Pacers, so that’s a positive.

I’m not going to predict an Indiana win in Game 3, but I do think they will tie this series at 2-2 before it heads back to OKC. Whether that next win is Wednesday or Friday night is a tough call, but I think Haliburton will play better earlier in the game, and the crowd will help give them a boost.

The Thunder are also 0-7 ATS on the road this postseason, including an ugly 42-point loss in Minnesota in the Western Conference Finals. Anything is possible this postseason.

The spread and total suggest a game in the realm of Thunder 117-112. The Pacers are 13-0 SU this postseason when they score at least 111 points and 0-5 when they don’t exceed 107 points. Also, every Indiana loss this postseason has been by 6+ points, so this one really is screaming either Indiana ML (+184) or Thunder -5 (-114).

But I’m going to take the Pacers to cover the spread at home and hopefully it’ll be a much better game to watch. Sunday night was bad and we didn’t get a good Stanley Cup Game 3 on Monday night either.

Give us something memorable, fellas.

NBA Pick: Pacers +5 (-106) at FanDuel

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Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar11/06/2025 - 11:00 am