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Pittsburgh Steelers 2025 NFL Season Preview and Picks: Can Aaron Rodgers and Mike Tomlin Turn the Clock Back to 2010 for Super Bowl Push?

Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar29/07/2025 - 10:42 am
(Photo by Joe Sargent/Getty Images)

You could argue no team in the NFL is putting all their eggs in one basket like the Pittsburgh Steelers are doing with the 2025 season. From their months-long patience with quarterback Aaron Rodgers to their wide receiver swap (D.K. Metcalf in, George Pickens out) and revamped secondary, the Steelers and coach Mike Tomlin look ready to do whatever it takes to end their longest playoff-win drought since the merger.

Tomlin has even recently admitted that the team’s streak of non-losing seasons doesn’t mean a lot. The Steelers can set the all-time NFL record at 22 seasons in 2025, but the number to focus on is zero playoff wins in the last eight seasons. Tomlin hasn’t been to a Super Bowl since the 2010 season, which coincidentally he lost to Rodgers and the Packers, and that remains the only Super Bowl appearance on the resume of the 4-time MVP quarterback as he eyes this as his final NFL season at 42 years old.

The Steelers also look ready to avenge their 2020 collapse after an 11-0 start, because Rodgers, Metcalf, Robert Woods, Jonnu Smith, Darius Slay, and Jalen Ramsey sounds like a 2021 NFL Dream Team thrown together.

But while it took some months, there is a vision peeking through here. The Steelers originally looked like a team without a plan. They gutted 100% of their quarterback room for the second year in a row before the draft, something no other NFL team has done in the Super Bowl era. They waited patiently for Rodgers, who finally signed in June.

When they traded for D.K. Metcalf from Seattle, it didn’t make much sense as he’d be a bad fit with George Pickens, who is a similar type of receiver. But then the Steelers traded the disgruntled Pickens to Dallas to get what they could for a player unlikely to earn an extension with Pittsburgh.

But that also means the Steelers are on a short list of teams that got rid of their leading passer (Russell Wilson), receiver (George Pickens), and rusher (Najee Harris) from the previous season. But there are certainly reasonable replacements for each spot.

One thing the Steelers almost never did during Ben Roethlisberger’s tenure was splurge in the free-agency market to add a difference maker at cornerback. If there’s a position group that could put this team over the top in 2025, it’d be the corners with Darius Slay and Jalen Ramsey coming over to help out Joey Porter Jr. They did have to trade safety Minkah Fitzpatrick to make this happen, but the Steelers have never aggressively attacked the secondary like this before in Tomlin’s career.

It’s a bold experiment that could backfire badly when you’re resting your hopes on a lot of transplants and one of the oldest quarterbacks in NFL history, who hasn’t won a playoff game since the COVID vaccine he never wanted to take was still brand new.

The sportsbooks have only slightly budged on favoring the Steelers to finish under 8.5 wins (-125 at FanDuel), which would be a losing record. Picking the Steelers to finish 8-9 in an ironic twist after acquiring Rodgers is something I’ve wanted to do for months. But as we get closer to the season, it’s starting to feel like this has to work well enough to produce yet another winning record for Tomlin.

But a playoff win? That’s a different story. Let’s look at the full changes for the 2025 Steelers and their best bets this season.

Previously on STEELERS: It’s a Rerun; They Lost Another Wild-Card Game

Expectations weren’t super high for the Steelers going into 2024. They started 3-0 after facing a stiff Kirk Cousins in his first game after his Achilles surgery, a rookie Bo Nix, and Justin Herbert left Week 3’s game in the third quarter with an injury. See how easy this stuff looks in hindsight?

But with the team not scoring much and the defense doing the heavy lifting, people were twisting the record to make Justin Fields sound better than he was as he filled in for Russell Wilson, who injured his calf in the preseason.

Sure enough, when Fields finally had to win a high-scoring game in Indianapolis and have a clutch moment, he folded, and the Steelers lost. The defense was then picked apart in the closing minutes against Dak Prescott and the Cowboys in another loss. That must have made Wilson’s calf feel great.

Tomlin took some heat from the national media for benching Fields for a healthy Wilson after a 4-2 start, but it was always the right call. Wilson backed him up on it, too, as the Steelers produced over 30 points and 400 yards of offense in his first two starts, something this offense hadn’t done since 2018. But it certainly helped that it was against the Jets and Giants.

After the bye, the Steelers were up to their old tricks by selling hope after upset wins over the Commanders and Ravens. Of course, you knew what’d happen next against a 2-win Cleveland team.

After losing in the snow to Cleveland, the Steelers won two games against the Ohio teams to get to 10-3 with an AFC North title in reach and a tough schedule on the way.

But the Steelers wilted against those contenders, losing their final five games of the season. They couldn’t score more than 17 points in any of those games, and their defense was hung out to dry by long drives from the Eagles. Then, Lamar Jackson played some of his best games against the Steelers in a pair of late-season wins. The 2024 Chiefs had their only win by more than 14 points in Pittsburgh, a 29-10 rout on Christmas.

Even the Bengals came into Pittsburgh in Week 18 and won a 19-17 game, denying Wilson on the final drive. In the playoffs, it was the kind of lifeless performance we’ve come to expect as the Steelers quickly fell behind 21-0 in Baltimore in the first half. They lost 28-14, ensuring yet another season with a winning record but no playoff wins. Not even close to one.

It’s beyond old at this point, so something had to change this year.

Pittsburgh Steelers Offseason Review

While Tomlin has retained his coordinators (Arthur Smith and Teryl Austin), few teams have made as many significant changes to their roster as the Steelers this year. That goes for both sides of the ball, and it’s a combo of veterans and their rookie class who will try to get this team back in real contention.

Steelers: Making Aaron Rodgers Comfortable in His Final Games

That headline purposely sounds like we’re talking about an 18-year-old cat or your grandfather, and in NFL terms, we kind of are with a quarterback set to turn 42 years old in December. It’s an age that really only Tom Brady has excelled at in the NFL at the quarterback position.

But we’ve covered the issue of age with Rodgers this offseason. Without repeating too much of that or too much of the previews from the 2023 and 2024 Jets, let’s just say his injury history isn’t that worrisome. He was taken down hard and broke his collarbone in 2013 and 2017, and obviously, he tore his Achilles on the opening drive in 2023. But the arm is still strong enough, and he played all 17 games last year for the Jets. The Steelers also brought back Mason Rudolph, who has been successful in small pinches for them over the years.

You can be worried about Rodgers’ age to a fault this year, but the bigger concern should be that he’s had his two worst statistical seasons in 2022 and 2024, he missed the playoffs both years, and the focus should be on how he fits into coordinator Arthur Smith’s new-look offense here.

Age is just a number, as any football player can get injured on any play, so let’s not overload on that part of this. We have also seen enough history that a great quarterback can go somewhere new and have instant success, including Joe Montana (1993 Chiefs), Brett Favre (2009 Vikings), Peyton Manning (2012 Broncos), Tom Brady (2020 Buccaneers), and Matthew Stafford (2021 Rams).

With Rodgers following so much of the Favre path, maybe his 2025 season in Pittsburgh is like Favre’s first year with Minnesota in 2009, meaning he’ll get to the Championship Game before throwing a back-breaking interception years before we find out he allegedly tried to defraud a state’s welfare fund to build a volleyball gymnasium for his daughter (assuming his wife is a real person and capable of childbirth).

But one thing at a time. There are flaws that have been ever-present in Rodgers’ game that are worth addressing here. For one, he’s always had a knack for avoiding interceptions, almost to the detriment of his offense, as he’s not taking enough chances at times to generate bigger plays down the field. He’ll take more sacks than he should because of this, but maybe that’s changing as he gets older. Old quarterbacks don’t like to get hit as it takes longer to recover, and he threw 23 interceptions in 2022-24, a high amount for him.

The Steelers have a very young offensive line, including three probable starters from their 2024 draft class alone. Left tackle Broderick Jones, their 2023 first-round pick, is only going into his third season, too, so this is probably the greenest group Rodgers has ever played behind, so that could be a little scary if they don’t develop properly up front.

Rodgers is also used to playing from ahead. In his prime, the Packers were the best front-running team we’ve ever seen, going 19 straight games without trailing in the fourth quarter in 2010-11, including that Super Bowl run. But he’s always lacked the killer instinct to put games away late, and he’s always had an underwhelming number of comebacks and game-winning drives for a quarterback of his caliber.

In 2022, Rodgers set career highs with three fourth-quarter comebacks and four game-winning drives, and the Packers still missed the playoffs with an 8-9 record. But Tomlin has an affinity for winning a ton of close games as the Steelers rarely blow teams out, so it’ll be interesting to see how that dynamic unfolds here. The Steelers were only 1-5 at 4QC opportunities last year, so things didn’t work out as well with Fields and Wilson in that area.

If Rodgers has to upstage a Mahomes, Allen, Lamar, or Burrow in a big game, can he still do it? Maybe we’ll find out.

KANSAS CITY, MO - AUGUST 10: Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs runs up field during the first half against the Cincinnati Bengals at Arrowhead Stadium on August 10, 2019 in Kansas City, Missouri.
(Photo by Peter G. Aiken/Getty Images)

Reasons to Doubt This Experiment with Rodgers in Pittsburgh

While you could argue the Steelers were right to get rid of the players they did, their new group of skill players around Rodgers are a questionable bunch. Another thing we know about Rodgers from his long career is that he’s always been a wide receiver-centric passer. He’s played with a lot of quality pass catchers, too, including Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, and Davante Adams.

He’ll throw to the running backs and tight ends, too, but no tight end has ever produced an 800-yard receiving season with Rodgers. He’s helped a wide receiver to that number 23 times.

The Steelers were certainly onto something when they traded for D.K. Metcalf and traded away George Pickens to Dallas. It wouldn’t have been a good duo as they don’t complement each other well at all. It’d be the Spider-Man pointing meme, and while it would have been good for viral moments in its own right, it was a smart move to trade Pickens for whatever they could get.

However, leaving Metcalf as far and away the best receiver for Rodgers is questionable. He’s a very good player, but he’s not a high catch rate guy like Adams, Rodgers’ BFF he had to bring with him to the Jets last year. That card is played out as Adams is happily with the Rams this year.

If Rodgers is seeking a slot guy and a high-percentage receiver, I guess he could warm up to veteran Robert Woods. But he’s 33 and his production has fallen off a cliff since his 2021 injury with the Rams. Maybe Calvin Austin can look better than ever with Rodgers throwing him the ball, but it’s not the deepest or most reliable receiving corps for Rodgers.

Then there’s the tight ends issue. The Steelers had a clear TE1 last year in Pat Freiermuth, who actually led the team with 65 catches and was second in yards (653). He has some killer drops on his career resume, but he’s a passable TE1. Yet, the Steelers acquired Jonnu Smith in the trade with Miami that saw the defensive backs get swapped, and Smith is a player that Arthur Smith loves. Smith also had 884 yards and 8 touchdowns in a career season for Miami last year.

PITTSBURGH, PENNSYLVANIA - JUNE 10: Aaron Rodgers #8 of the Pittsburgh Steelers in action during Minicamp at UPMC Rooney Sports Complex on June 10, 2025 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
(Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images)

It’s hard to see Rodgers leading an offense with a WR1 who catches 60% of his passes and is better as an athletic freak rather than a consistent chain mover. Then are the two tight ends going to be the second and third-leading receivers? That might be Arthur Smith’s dream, but it doesn’t mesh one bit with Rodgers’ career.

So, there is a big disconnect here with Rodgers and Smith differing on how they view the tight end position. They’ll have to figure that out quickly, and Metcalf may need to be used differently from his Seattle days and catch some shorter passes like Adams did.

As for the running backs, Najee Harris is gone. Jaylen Warren probably can’t replicate his workload, but he can be a good part of a committee approach and is a solid receiver. The Steelers drafted Kaleb Johnson (Iowa) in the third round, and he could grow into a Harris-type of role for them. The Steelers just released Cordarrelle Patterson, but they still have veterans like Kenneth Gainwell (Eagles) and Trey Sermon (Colts) competing for depth.

It doesn’t feel like an explosive offense, but the Steelers are no strangers to grinding out ugly wins under Tomlin. Rodgers is simply going to have to get used to that in a hurry, and it would help a lot if the defense is as good as it possibly can be.

Is There a Return to Elite Defense in Pittsburgh?

With the Steelers signing Aaron Rodgers to a 1-year deal worth a maximum of $19.5 million if he hits every incentive, they had some money to spread around the rest of the roster. T.J. Watt just cashed in for a 3-year extension worth $41 million per season, making him the highest-paid non-quarterback in the NFL. He’ll be 31 this season and is a favorite for Defensive Player of the Year again.

But there are some exciting things happening with this defense that leaves Tomlin with few excuses not to get his best results in years on this side of the ball:

  • Watt is the superstar, but Cameron Heyward is the leader up front, and he’s returning with a chance to mentor first-round pick Derrick Harmon (Oregon) as his potential replacement when Cam retires. That was a great pick.
  • Payton Wilson made some impressive plays as a rookie linebacker and joins Patrick Queen and Alex Highsmith to complete the front seven.
  • Corner Darius Slay is 34 and just won a Super Bowl with the Eagles, and he could still play at a high level without even needing to guard the toughest assignments on this depth chart.
  • The Steelers were dissatisfied with safety Minkah Fitzpatrick’s lack of splash plays in recent years, so he was traded to Miami in exchange for corner Jalen Ramsey and tight end Jonnu Smith in a huge June trade.

These moves don’t mean the Steelers are giving up on corner Joey Porter Jr. by any means, going into his third season. You can never have enough good corners in the NFL, and Porter could learn so much from Slay and Ramsey, who have both been top corners in their careers. Ramsey turns 31 in October, so he’s still a viable corner you can put on a team’s best receiver.

Replacing Fitzpatrick with veteran Juan Thornhill (Chiefs and Browns) isn’t the greatest move, but if it helps you cover the top wideout with Ramsey, then that might be a fair trade-off.

Frankly, these moves probably put the Steelers in a better position to beat the Bengals by being able to pressure Joe Burrow and cover Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. However, they might be more vulnerable against the Ravens, who can just attack you down the middle of the field with Derrick Henry and their two tight ends.

But real ones know it’s not about the regular season for Tomlin’s defense. This playoff losing streak is largely due to horrific defense as the Steelers have gone six straight playoff games allowing at least 28 points, the longest streak in NFL history by two games.

The only good news about January’s 28-14 wild card loss to Baltimore is it’s the first time since 2015 that Tomlin’s defense didn’t allow its season high in points in the postseason.

But others, such as retired New England wideout Julian Edelman, have shed some light on Tomlin’s defensive shortcomings. Edelman had this scathing analysis of Tomlin’s defense in January:

No matter how good things look in the regular season, the Steelers will have to prove it in the playoffs.

Best Bets for the 2025 Steelers

The Steelers have an over/under 8.5 wins, are slotted to finish third in the tough AFC North, and they are not favored to make the playoffs (+142 at FanDuel).

But when you look at the schedule, it really does break well for the Steelers early, especially for Aaron Rodgers’ best interests:

  • You get a Week 1 game against the Jets and Justin Fields, which should be winnable.
  • Seattle has to come to Pittsburgh for an early body clock game, and Sam Darnold is the kind of quarterback this defense could rough up.
  • Week 3 is in New England, and Mike Vrabel’s teams are tough, but we’ll see what Drake Maye and company do this year.
  • Week 4 is in Ireland against Minnesota, and a young J.J. McCarthy – expect the Steelers to have huge crowd representation in Ireland.
  • After an early bye (Week 5), the Steelers host Cleveland before going to play Cincinnati on a Thursday night in a building they are excellent in.
  • The Packers come to face Rodgers in Pittsburgh on Sunday Night Football in Week 8, so you know he’ll be amped for that one.
  • The Steelers host the Colts to start November, so that’s another potential win.

There’s really not a game there where you’d say, “they have no business winning that one” and we’re talking about eight games. A lot of chances for a great start, but how do you finish after you turned 10-3 into a nightmare last year?

Well, it gets tougher with road trips to the Chargers, Bears (should be better this year), and the Ravens in Baltimore start December. They also have to play the Bills and the rematch with the Bengals, who usually play better in Pittsburgh than they do in Cincy.

Hosting the Dolphins on Monday night in Week 15 should be a win if you know the team histories there. A trip to Detroit (Week 16) is really tough, then it’s off to Cleveland before a rare case of hosting the Ravens in Week 18. Who knows where things will be at that point? Will the Ravens need to win, or can they rest starters? Hard to say now.

But you add it all up, and as much as I wanted to go with the 8-9 finish, I like the veteran additions too much to still take over 8.5 wins. It may very well be 9-8 or 10-7 again, but it’s another winning record nonetheless.

I also think the improved secondary and potential for more sustained offense can help T.J. Watt win another Defensive Player of the Year award, so he’s a favorite pick for that this season.

Is it enough for the playoffs? That’s tough to say in a deep AFC. That probably depends on how the games go with the Chargers and Bengals and the tie-breakers those create. I’d bet on it to happen, but I certainly wouldn’t count on this team to win a wild-card game.

After all, the standard is still the standard, and the Steelers have gotten very comfortable with getting bounced on wild-card weekend. Their best hope of winning a playoff game would probably be getting the No. 5 seed and playing the AFC South winner, but even that isn’t a sure thing, as Tomlin is winless against DeMeco Ryans (Texans) and Shane Steichen (Colts), and the Jaguars have been giving the Steelers fits since their inception in 1995.

Whatever you do, don’t be this bettor:

The Steelers deserve credit for making big changes this year, but there is still a considerable gap between them and the elite teams in the AFC. This attempt to get there with a 42-year-old quarterback is likely a one-year experiment, so they better maximize it for all they can.

Come next year, the search for Ben Roethlisberger’s true successor begins anew.

  • NFL Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers over 8.5 wins (+105) at FanDuel
  • NFL Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers to make playoffs (+142) at FanDuel
  • NFL Pick: 2025 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Award – T.J. Watt (+1000) at FanDuel

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Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar29/07/2025 - 10:42 am