> CavaliersChet HolmgrenNBA
2025 NBA Finals Preview: How Can the Indiana Pacers Upset a Historically Great Season from the Oklahoma City Thunder?
> CavaliersChet HolmgrenNBA
> CavaliersChet HolmgrenNBA
The 2025 NBA Finals are a win for small-market teams as the Oklahoma City Thunder, the best team all season, have home-court advantage over the Indiana Pacers in their first Finals appearance since 2000. Indiana has already engineered some of the greatest comebacks in playoff history, but now they need a huge upset of MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder.
I don’t know what to tell you if a matchup between the best defensive team in the league against a fast and exciting offense led by Tyrese Haliburton doesn’t interest you. Granted, the odds suggest this series could be over quickly as the Thunder are -700 at FanDuel to win the series, which implies an 87.5% chance. Indiana is +500 to win the Finals and a 9.5-point road underdog in Game 1.
Let’s break down the matchup, including why the Thunder are heavily favored, what the Pacers can do to upset them, and our Game 1 betting picks for Thursday night and best value for series picks.
Table of Contents
Why Are the Thunder So Heavily Favored in the NBA Finals Over Indiana?
With -700 odds, the Thunder actually are not the biggest NBA Finals favorite in the last decade, let alone all of history. Believe it or not, but the Golden State Warriors were anywhere from -1000 to -1075 in 2018 to beat Lebron James’ Cavaliers in their fourth-straight meeting. That one ended in a Golden State sweep too.
Based on historical data from Sports Odd History, no NBA champion was priced at +500 for the Finals since the Detroit Pistons (+500) in 2004 when they upset the dysfunctional Lakers, the end of the Kobe-Shaq era. Even when Indiana coach Rick Carlisle won a championship with the 2010-11 Dallas Mavericks, they were only +155 to upset the Miami Heat.
So, the Pacers need one of the all-time upsets in NBA Finals history against a 68-win team that set the single-season record for the largest average margin of victory (+12.87). Even this postseason, the Pacers and Thunder are both 12-4 and average just a hair over 117 points per game. But thanks to their defensive edge, the Thunder are +11.2 in Net Rating while the Pacers are +4.1.
But to reference Clerks, the Pacers aren’t even supposed to be here today. Win or lose, Indiana has already made some history for their improbable run to the NBA Finals:
- The Pacers were anywhere from +5000 to +6600 before this season to win the NBA championship.
- The longest odds on record for an NBA champion before the season was +2800 for the 2014-15 Warriors before we knew they’d become a dynasty.
- Even crazier, the Pacers were +8000 at the start of the playoffs to win it all.
- The only teams with longer known odds before the first round of the playoffs are the 2023 Heat (+12500) and 1981 Rockets (+10000) who were 40-42 in the regular season.
- The longest known odds for a champion at the start of the playoffs is +1800 for the 1995 Rockets and 2011 Mavericks, so Rick Carlisle has been here before.
But this would be an all-time upset in the NBA. It’s not that the Pacers are a bad team. They finished 50-32, finished stronger than they started (10-15 in December), and they were in the Eastern Conference Finals a year ago, so they didn’t just come out of nowhere.
But the odds are what they are because the Thunder have just been so historically good at winning games by double digits. As we detailed in the Western Conference Finals preview, it’s not that the Thunder are uniquely strong at shooting (from any range), passing, or rebounding. Their secret sauce is dominating turnovers. They swarm you on defense with relentless pressure, they take the ball away, and they protect it as well as anyone. The takeaways help fuel their offense for easy baskets and make games slip away quickly for teams.
Let’s be glad it’s not the Knicks in the Finals as that would likely produce a worse series. The Pacers have a shot because of their own speed and ability to protect the ball. They also play sharper on the road and know how to come back from double-digit deficits.
How the Pacers Can Push the Thunder in the NBA Finals
The NBA is usually the chalkiest professional sports league, where underdogs rarely win best-of-7 series. It’s just too hard to take 4-of-7 games from the better team where you have one fewer home game to manage.
But the 3-point shot has really changed the way the game is played. It makes it more volatile, makes teams more prone to hot and cold shooting nights, makes it harder to keep a big lead, and we’ve seen a real rise of comebacks and upsets in the last decade as the 3-point shot has exploded in usage.
We’ve already seen the Pacers use the 3-point shot to pull off one of the greatest comebacks in basketball history.
The Comeback Kings of Indiana
It was Game 1 against the Knicks in the Eastern Conference Finals, and the Pacers trailed by 14 points with 2:45 left. No one else on record has won in that spot, but the Pacers found a way because Aaron Nesmith went nuclear hot from 3 and scored 20 points in a 5-minute span.
Then Haliburton thought he had the win in regulation on a 3, but his foot was on the line, and the Pacers only tied it before winning in overtime. An all-time finish.
The crazy thing is the Pacers have had similar comebacks this year, doing so in each round of the playoffs to the Bucks and Cavaliers as well.
Before you say the Thunder defense would never allow such a finish, let me stop you there. The Thunder had an improbable blown lead in Game 1 of the semifinals against Denver in OKC. They led by 11 points with just over 4:00 left. That was when they employed the “foul up 3” strategy too early, Chet Holmgren missed a pair of free throws, and Denver managed to come back and win that game on a 3-point shot by Aaron Gordon.
The Nuggets pushed the Thunder all the way to Game 7 where they ultimately fell hard in a blowout loss. But the Nuggets had the Thunder absolutely on the ropes in Game 4, threatening to go up 3-1. But the Thunder staged a fourth-quarter comeback and saved their title run that day.
It’s been a wild postseason for 20-point comebacks and also plenty of fourth-quarter comebacks you normally don’t see in the NBA. The Thunder are not unbeatable, so it wouldn’t be a shock if the Pacers could still win one of the road games by making another improbable comeback in this series.
Haliburton’s Elite Passing and Indiana’s Speed
We’ve established that the Pacers can pull off a miracle comeback win with the best of them. Another reason to think the Pacers can win some games in this series is that they also protect the ball well. Their 12.7% turnover rate is the third lowest this postseason (Thunder lead with 11.6%), and the Pacers were also the third lowest in the regular season.
You have to give Tyrese Haliburton a lot of the credit here for his great passing and ball handling. In the Game 4 win over the Knicks, Haliburton turned in the first NBA playoff game ever with 32 points, 15 assists, 12 rebounds, and he did it without a single turnover.
Haliburton has 15 games in his NBA career (playoffs included) with at least 20 points, 10 assists, and 0 turnovers. That ranks No. 2 in NBA history, even ahead of the likes of LeBron James (13), Nikola Jokic (9), and Magic Johnson (7). Keep in mind, Haliburton has only played five seasons. The only player with more 20/10/0 games is Chris Paul with 17, and he’s played 20 seasons.
If you make it 25 points, 12 assists, and 0 turnovers, then Haliburton already has the most ever with 8 such games (Jokic has 5). He can really do it all when he brings his A game, which he’ll need often in this series.
Great passing/ball movement and not letting the ball stick could do wonders for the Pacers in terms of not letting the Thunders’ defensive pressure get to them for mistakes. The Pacers also play with great speed as they are the fastest offense (4.70) and second-fastest defense (4.14) according to the data at NBA.com. I’m assuming the units for those numbers are miles per hour for all movement tracked up and down the court.
Moving the ball around efficiently and keeping up the fast pace could be key to Indiana having success in this series. We dug into some of the data from NBA.com:
- The Pacers average the most points per game (25.9) on pull-up shooting in the postseason.
- The Pacers have the highest FG% (44.2%) this postseason on spot-up shooting plays.
- The Pacers average the third-fewest isolation plays per game (5.5) in the playoffs, which is good because the Thunder force a turnover on a league-high 17.3% of such plays.
- Both teams like to get out and run as the Pacers (25.8) and Thunder (25.3) lead all teams this postseason in points per game in transition.
- In the playoffs, the Pacers’ defense is allowing a league-best 0.96 points per possession in transition, even outdoing the Thunder (1.10 ranks No. 6).
- The Pacers average the second-most touches per game (431.8) in the playoffs; the Thunder are 10th (377.8).
- Indiana averages just 2.27 dribbles per touch, the second fewest in the playoffs and right above Denver (2.36), the team that pushed the Thunder the best.
The Thunder are a team led by their defense. The key to beating them isn’t just to hope for a bad shooting night like you would with any NBA team. You have to perform well on offense too, as 116 points looks to be the sweet spot as a bare minimum to post to beat the Thunder this year:
- The Thunder are 9-15 (.375) when they allow more than 115 points this season.
- That’s still the fourth-best winning percentage this season in that split, and Indiana is the fifth at 15-29 (.341).
- But the Thunder are 71-3 (.959) when you don’t break 115 points against them, easily the best record in NBA history.
- The only other team who even breaks 90% in NBA history in this split is the 1966-67 76ers, who were 47-5 (.904).
For what it’s worth, the Pacers have scored 116+ points in 53-of-98 games this season, so they get there a little over half the time. In the playoffs, it’s been pretty cut and dry:
- The Pacers are 12-0 in the playoffs when they score at least 114 points.
- The Pacers are 0-4 in the playoffs when they’re held under 105 points.
- The Thunder are 11-1 in the playoffs when they score at least 112 points.
- The Thunder are 1-3 in the playoffs when they score under 108 points.
We’ll see how accurate that Game 1 betting line (Thunder -9.5, O/U 230.5) is, but that’s an implied final score of 120-111 in favor of OKC.
For what it’s worth, the Thunder are 2-0 this season against the Pacers:
- December 26, 2024 at Indiana: Thunder won 120-114 after SGA dropped 45 points in a fourth-quarter comeback win after the Pacers led by 10 after a quarter and by 8 at halftime. The Thunder were +8 in turnovers with just 3 giveaways in the game. Haliburton had a very passive game with 4 points and 8 assists and was minus-13 in 35 minutes.
- March 29, 2025 at Oklahoma City: Thunder won 132-111 after winning the two middle quarters by 10 points each. Haliburton led the Pacers with 18 points and no turnovers (13 for the team) but only 3 assists. In a game without Holmgren, SGA scored 33 points, but maybe the story of the game was exceptionally hot 3-point shooting from Luguentz Dort (6-of-7) and Isaiah Joe (5-of-7).
The Thunder are 29-2 SU and 22-5-4 ATS against the Eastern Conference this season with an average margin of victory of 16.5 points. But for what it’s worth, the Thunders’ last home loss to an Eastern Conference opponent was Indiana in March 2024:
Pacers vs. Thunder NBA Finals Betting Picks: Game 1 and the Series
The Pacers are a 9.5-point road underdog with a total of 230.5 points in Game 1. It’s become almost comical how often the home team wins Game 1 of the NBA Finals, though the Celtics did beat the Warriors in 2022.
But since 1996, the home team is 25-4 in Game 1 of the NBA Finals (18-2 since 2005). The home team has won by double digits in 18-of-29 games as well, something the Thunder have done more this season than any team in history.
In fact, we haven’t had a Game 1 of the NBA Finals decided by fewer than 8 points either way since the Spurs upset Miami 92-88 in what turned out to be one of the greatest Finals ever, with the Heat coming back to win Games 6 and 7.
I like Thunder -9.5 in this one as it will appease fans instantly who think this series stinks, but I’d say look out for Indiana taking Game 2, which is all they need to do on this road trip to start the series. Just win a game, and we’ve seen them shock Cleveland and the Knicks by starting both series 2-0.
As for the total, interestingly enough, only 1-of-29 Game 1s in the NBA Finals since 1996 finished over 230.5 points. It was 2018 too, the year the Warriors were -1000 or better to beat the Cavaliers. That Game 1 ended up being the highlight of the series with LeBron James having an epic game (51 points, 8 rebounds, 8 assists), but the Warriors won by 10 in overtime, which is the reason it went over.
Thunder by 10 and total under 230.5 is a combo that would have hit 38 times this season already. I’ll take it for a 39th in Game 1.
NBA Finals Game 1 Betting Picks
Here are some prop picks I also like for Game 1 (odds via FanDuel):
Tyrese Haliburton Over 17.5 Points (-110): We know the Pacers listen to the headlines out there, and Haliburton has to know the knock on him is he’s not aggressive enough as a scorer. But I’m looking at 22 points in Game 1 in Cleveland and 31 points in that classic Game 1 in New York. Last year, he was facing the championship-favored team in Boston and he scored 25 in that Game 1, and we know he averaged 3.2 more points per game on the road this year. I think he’s aggressive in looking for his shot and goes over 17.5 points in Game 1.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to Score 30+ Points and Over 6.5 Assists (+133 for 2-leg parlay): Stick these in a Same Game Parlay, but it’s a hedge on SGA’s scoring line, which is set to 33.5. You never know how a young player, the MVP, will fare in his first NBA Finals game, but SGA should score a lot frequently in this series. He’s gone off against the Pacers twice this year and we expect the pace to be up for this one, another reason to like his assists too.
Luguentz Dort 2+ Made Threes (-184): He’s made 3 and 6 in the games against Indiana this year. He’s much better shooting them at home. He had 4 makes in his last game, and he’s had at least 2 makes in the last three games following a 4-make game this postseason. It could be an offensive game (230.5 is a high total for the NBA Finals), so this should be a good night for him from deep. You could also go over 8.5 points for better odds (-136 at FanDuel).
Myles Turner Under 13.5 Points (-128): He had 11 and 12 points in the games against the Thunder this season. He was under 13.5 in the last three games against the Knicks too. This series should be more about speed, catch-and-shoot, and guys who can quickly make their own shot. The plodding Turner might not be a player the Pacers want to lean on, especially on the road. I’d go under on his points in Game 1.
Pascal Siakam Over 6.5 Rebounds (+100): Never a big fan of the rebounds market, but I like the even odds for the line of 6.5. Pascal Siakam had 9 and 10 rebounds in the games against the Thunder this year, and he usually does his best rebounding work on the road this postseason.
Chet Holmgren to Record 2+ Blocks (-178): He missed both Pacers games this year, but he’s healthy and playing well in the playoffs. He’s had 2+ blocks in 10-of-16 playoff games, including 7-of-9 in home games.
As for the series, it’s just not in my nature to bet on things with -700 odds like the Thunder to win or -550 (at FanDuel) for SGA to win Finals MVP. Everything about NBA history and this season tells me they should beat Indiana, and the MVP should win the Finals MVP, but do I want to bet $700 just to win $100? No thanks. There has to be better value out there.
For Finals MVP, Haliburton (+700) and Pascal Siakam (+2000) are the next closest options to SGA, who will almost undoubtedly win it if the Thunder complete this title season. He’s so consistent with his scoring, and while someone like Chet Holmgren or Jalen Williams could be the star of a certain game, they won’t sustain it over a full series to deserve Finals MVP.
But while Haliburton is a trendy pick, I think it’s the same thing as the Eastern Conference Finals against the Knicks. Siakam won the MVP of that round because he was more consistently productive than Haliburton while delivering some big 30-point games. If the Pacers win this series, I think it’s the same thing with Siakam having steady games, a few bright moments, and Haliburton is still too inconsistent with his scoring and shot aggression to trust him to win Finals MVP right now.
That’s why I’d take Siakam at +2000 odds to win Finals MVP as the best value pick for that market this year. It’d be like how Jaylen Brown won both MVP awards in the playoffs over Jayson Tatum, the team’s alpha, last year. Siakam can do the same as a former champion with Toronto.
NBA Pick: 2025 Finals MVP – Pascal Siakam (+2000) at FanDuel
NBA Finals Series Betting Picks
As for the series winner, I’d rather do something creative than take the Thunder to win, which is the outcome I expect to happen. We talked about the Pacers’ ability to come back, their road success, and the way they protect the ball. That should be worth at least two wins, right? The Thunder were taken to seven games by the Nuggets and finished the Timberwolves in five games. Let’s split the difference and go with Thunder 4-2 as the final outcome.
NBA Pick: 2025 Finals Series Correct Score – Thunder 4-2 (+410) at FanDuel
NBA Pick: O/U Series Total Games – Over 5.5 (+112) at FanDuel
Now let’s hope some of these games are memorable after what’s been the most entertaining NBA postseason in many years. Having it remembered with an all-time upset would certainly put it over the top, but just seeing some good games will also suffice.
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