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NBA Finals Game 5 Picks: Did the Indiana Pacers Blow Their Upset Shot Friday Night?

Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar16/06/2025 - 12:34 pm
(Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)

The 2025 NBA Finals have already been one of the best series in the last 15 years, but last Friday night could be the turning point after the Oklahoma City Thunder survived another dangerous Game 4 that would have put them in a 3-1 hole they’d unlikely climb back from.

It was similar to the way the team was down in Denver in Game 4 of the semifinals before mounting a comeback win to even the series at 2-2. That series still went seven games, and maybe things are trending that way again as the Pacers have largely followed Denver’s path in that round:

  • Game 1: Denver won a road shocker, 121-119, on a late shot just as the Pacers did in the Finals on Tyrese Haliburton’s late shot in a 111-110 win.
  • Game 2: The Thunder dominated Denver by 43 points (149-106) and comfortably beat the Pacers by 16 points in a game that never felt close after halftime (123-107).
  • Game 3: The Nuggets were clutch to force overtime where they went on a run and won by 9 points (113-104), similar to how the Pacers closed strong at home and won by 9 points (116-107) to take a 2-1 lead.
  • Game 4: With chances to go up 3-1 on the Thunder, the Nuggets blew an 8-point lead and the Pacers blew a 7-point lead in the fourth quarter as OKC evened both series at 2-2.
  • Game 5: Denver’s offense (Nikola Jokic aside) went ice cold in the fourth quarter again as the Thunder were able to escape with a 112-105 win to take a 3-2 lead.
  • Game 6: Facing elimination at home, the Nuggets had a strong third quarter and won by 12 points (119-107) to force Game 7.
  • Game 7: Denver led on the road early, but the Thunder won the second quarter 39-20 and never looked back in a decisive 125-93 win to win the series.

We’ll see if history repeats itself for the Thunder, but this series has been too good to have an awful Game 7 end it. But the Thunder are -520 at FanDuel to win the NBA Finals now, and they are +102 (basically a coin flip) to win the next two games and end it in six games in a series that wasn’t supposed to go six games. We know it will go at least six, but can the Pacers recover after what was such a devastating loss Friday night?

Is the NBA’s all-time greatest upset attempt in trouble, or will the Pacers keep hope alive? They’re going to have to win at least one more road game in this series.

Before we give our Game 5 picks and talk about how to handle the rest of the series, let’s review the golden opportunity the Pacers blew in Game 4 and why they should still have hope that they can beat this team two more times.

NBA Finals Game 4: Indy Let Them Off the Hook

Hands down, Friday night was the worst loss in the history of the Indiana Pacers.

With a chance to go up 3-1 in the NBA Finals, the Pacers have never been this close to winning a championship before. Friday night’s Game 4 was a game where they played so well in front of the home crowd for three quarters, they led by 10 points late in that third quarter, then it was just all downhill from there, and it’s not like the Thunder had a great game by any stretch.

To paraphrase late NFL coach Dennis Green from his infamous 2006 rant after losing to the Chicago Bears on a Monday night:

But the Thunder are who we thought they were, and we let them off the hook!

Let them off the hook indeed. The Pacers were up 86-76 with just over 2:00 left in the third quarter after a dunk by Obi Toppin that had the crowd roaring. But instead of adding to that lead, the Pacers missed their next three field goals and Toppin missed a pair of free throws as the score didn’t move until 32 seconds remained when the Thunder made a free throw.

That was the turning point. Then in the fourth quarter with the Thunder down 89-82, Chet Holmgren on a bad ankle stepped up and scored a quick six points for his team. But the Pacers still led 103-99 as the clock moved under 3:00. That’s when Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was in the process of taking over and hit a huge 3 to make it a 1-point game.

Technically, the game-winning basket that put OKC ahead for good with 2:23 left was a controversial jumper by SGA after video appeared to show him push off his defender and take three steps after the gather before shooting, or a travel that wasn’t called.

The play is almost identical, including the same spot on the floor, to a play that SGA had in Oklahoma City earlier in this series:

If you’re wondering why SGA and the Thunder were given the “Free Throw Merchant” nickname this year, it’s because this is a go-to move for him. Head referee Scott Foster was also on the Game 4 call, and he has such a controversial history of one-sided calls in the playoffs that he’s earned the nickname “The Extender” for making sure playoff series go as long as they can.

SGA finished with 35 points, including 15 in the final 5:00. But make no mistake about it, the Thunder won this game thanks to going 34-of-38 from the free throw line. Otherwise, they were 3-of-16 from 3-point territory and they had 16 turnovers to just 11 assists.

In NBA history, teams who have 15+ turnovers, no more than 11 assists, and who shoot under 20% from 3-point territory (min. 10 attempts) have a record of 6-139 (.041). Their record is just 1-17 in the playoffs, but OKC has that one win.

That’s a tough loss to take. But the refs are what they are, and the Pacers can’t make that the excuse for why they were outscored 31-17 in the fourth quarter. Their offense went completely flat and so many of their shots were weak and either had too much air or looked like a brick was thrown at the basket. Just no sense of urgency or pace to the way they finished this game on offense, so they have to own that and correct it for Game 5.

Oddly enough, it was arguably the first and only other Game 4 of the NBA Finals that was the worst loss in Pacers history before this one. That was the 2000 Finals against the Lakers, and at home in Game 4, the Pacers tied the game with a late 3, had a chance to win at the end of regulation and overtime, but they missed those clutch shots and gave up some awful offensive rebounds late in OT, including one by a young Kobe Bryant:

The Pacers lost 120-118 to fall into a 3-1 hole instead of evening the series at 2-2 like the way OKC just did. That hurts because the Pacers won Game 5 with ease (120-87), then lost 116-111 in Game 6 in LA despite leading after each of the first three quarters.

That’s why some might Game 6 is the worst loss in Indiana history since it ended the season, but you have to give consideration to what Game 4 did to that series first.

But that’s a moot point now as the new answer is clearly Game 4 of the 2025 NBA Finals when it looked like the Pacers had the OKC defense figured out, only to go ice cold in the last 14 minutes.

Still, the Pacers have to feel good about things they’ve done in this series, including outplaying the Thunder for the majority of the last two games. They’ve shot the ball better in this series, they’ve moved it better, and OKC has really struggled to get assists in a few of the games. The vaunted OKC defense we heard about all season has rarely looked dominant in this series so far.

The Pacers know they’ll at least get another home game in Game 6 to possibly have to hold off elimination on Thursday night. But it could also be to win the championship if they’re fortunate enough to pull out another road upset on Monday night in Game 5.

Never say never for a team that’s already won multiple road games in each round of the playoffs as part of this improbable run. It was never going to be easy to beat the Thunder, but man, the Pacers really had them on the ropes Friday night, and just like with Denver, the Thunder had a counter to fight back and save their season.

That’s why we keep talking this up as the best NBA postseason since 2016.

2025 NBA Finals Game 5 Betting Picks

If we review our NBA Game 4 betting picks, we nailed the Tyrese Haliburton props again as he had a quiet night with rebounds and made 3s. But Bennedict Mathurin went full Benedict Arnold on us with a traitorous finish, SGA’s slow start and failure to record an assist hurt, Aaron Nesmith couldn’t bury that third 3, Jalen Williams still can’t get steals in this series, and the real kicker was Mathurin’s blown free throws and fouls helping OKC cover when we wanted the Thunder ML and Pacers +6 together. OKC won by 7 points; of course.

But we have five new betting picks for Game 5 where the Thunder are a 9.5-point home favorite with a total of 224 points. Yes, I promise not to include Jalen Williams 2+ steals again even though you know it’s happening in this series in one of these games.

1. Tyrese Haliburton: The Rollercoaster Continues

Following the Tyrese Haliburton rollercoaster this postseason can give you nausea as he alternates between a stunning, historic performance and a milk carton appearance the next time. He even did exactly what we predicted with his rebounds going from 3 to 9 to 2 over his last three games, so does that make him good for over 4.5 this time? Sure, let’s do that and maybe even play it up to 6+ rebounds (+142 at FanDuel).

But I think he has a chance to have his highest-scoring game of the series as he’ll need to be more aggressive on the road as a scorer, something he didn’t do in the first two games of this series.

That’s why I’m taking the over in points (16.5) and rebounds (4.5) for Haliburton. If you are playing any low-risk, high-reward Same Game Parlays, I’d go all out and say he can score 25+ points in this game (+450 at FanDuel). Haliburton’s had at least one 26-point game in each round of the playoffs this year.

If we’re following the Denver-OKC script here, it was Game 5 when Jokic scored 44 points in a loss, so here’s to history repeating itself (again).

NBA 2-Leg Pick: Tyrese Haliburton Over 4.5 Rebounds and Over 16.5 Points (+164) at FanDuel

NBA SGP Pick: Tyrese Haliburton to Score 25+ Points (+450) at FanDuel

2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Where Art Thou Assists?

You have to give SGA credit for an amusing stat line in Game 4 when he had 35 points (15 in the last 5:00, 0 assists, and just 3 rebounds too as the Pacers have really limited his assists in this series with 0, 3, 4, and 8 as his totals in lowest to highest order. Only in Game 2 did he get a lot as the Thunder haven’t been setting each other up for a lot of assists in this series.

But I think that’ll change from Game 4 at home, and they’ll share and shoot the ball better as a team. That’s why I’m taking the better than even odds on SGA to go over 6.5 assists.

NBA Pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 6.5 Assists (+112) at FanDuel

3. Who Steals the Show (And the Ball) in Game 5 of the NBA Finals?

Turnovers are always a stat to watch in games involving the Thunder. That’s been their bread and butter all season, and someone like SGA has already had at least 3 steals in 3-of-4 games this series. Alex Caruso just had a game with 5 steals one game after his Indy counterpart, T.J. McConnell, did the same in his team’s Game 3 win.

You can usually get great odds for steals in the NBA, but the oddsmakers are catching on to these numbers in this series and adjusting prices accordingly. That’s why SGA (+580) and Caruso (+400) are the only players at FanDuel with markets for 4+ steals in this game.

But I think you could get good value on Tyrese Haliburton to get 2+ steals on the road again in this series (+148), and Aaron Nesmith (-136) should get at least one for the Pacers as he’s played some aggressive defense in this series too.

If I’m taking a real chance on someone to get multiple steals in this game, I’ll take my chances with Cason Wallace of the Thunder. He did it five times in the Denver series, and he did it in Game 2 of this one, OKC’s last home game.

Of course, this will probably be the night where Jalen Williams finally breaks through and gets 3 steals (+410 at FanDuel), but you can always make multiple low-risk parlays on this game. We only have or three NBA games left this season to bet on.

NBA Pick: Cason Wallace to Record 2+ Steals (+178) at FanDuel

4. Can We Get Some 3-Point Shots This Time?

Betting on 3-point shooters was almost a waste of time in Game 4 after the Thunder shot just 3-of-16 from deep and Haliburton (1-of-7) and Myles Turner (0-of-6) were 1-for-13 for Indiana.

You have to think regression favors the Thunder at home here, and there’s no better choice for someone to cash in on a better shooting nigh for the team than Alex Caruso. He already made four 3s in a game earlier this series, and his odds are very favorable for a pair or trio (+330 at FanDuel) of makes in this game.

NBA Core Pick: Alex Caruso 2+ Made Threes (+108) at FanDuel

NBA SGP Pick: Alex Caruso 3+ Made Threes (+330) at FanDuel

5. Who Wins Game 5 of the NBA Finals?

I thought I had it perfect last time out with the Thunder winning and Pacers (+6) covering. But Bennedict Mathurin turned in a final minute so unthinkable to help the Thunder cover the spread that I think his communication devices should be looked at.

Mathurin is an 89% free throw shooter who missed three straight free throws in the closing moments of Game 4. That’s bad enough but things happen. Maybe he just shrunk in the moment. But on top of that, he twice illegally fouled before the pass was inbounded, which is a one-shot free throw and the opponent gets the ball back again. Just a horrible mistake and he did it twice. You almost never see it once in that spot.

So, that’s about the most frustrating way possible to lose a spread pick. As for Game 5, the team that’s set a record for double-digit wins is a 9.5-point home favorite. But the Thunder have only managed to win Game 2 by that margin, so it’s hardly a lock. It really just depends on how the Pacers respond after that huge letdown on Friday. We know this team is mentally tough and can come back, but if they play poorly in the first quarter, you could see things snowball quickly for another blowout.

But if we are truly running back the same series as Nuggets-Thunder, then Game 5 was a 7-point win by the home team. That wouldn’t be enough to cover here, so it does present itself for another opportunity of Thunder winning and not covering.

I think the Pacers give it a good effort but come up just short again.

NBA Pick: Win Margin – Thunder by 1-10 (+160) at FanDuel

Bonus Pick: How Does the 2025 NBA Finals End?

We’ll be back before Thursday’s Game 6, but just in case you’re wondering how the odds look for this thing ending, it’s favored for the Thunder to win the championship on Thursday night, their first one since moving to Oklahoma City.

My original pick before the series started was Thunder in six games, and that could very well happen. They’re +102 at FanDuel to win the last three games of the series to win 4-2. But that’s not good enough value for me. While we said all along that the Thunder should win this series, the value was always on Indiana as a huge underdog, and the Pacers already exceeded expectations with two wins and what could have easily been a 3-1 lead Friday night.

So, if the all-time greatest upset in NBA history is going to happen, it’d only be fitting if it happens in Game 7 on the road in Oklahoma City. That’s why I think the best value is the “Series Correct Order” bet you can place at FanDuel where the Thunder win Game 5 after a good effort from the Pacers, Indiana survives at home in Game 6, and then the shocker on the road in Game 7 as they don’t repeat the Denver series and instead give us a bigger road Game 7 win than even the Cavaliers had in Golden State in 2016.

But we’ll see if the Pacers truly are the team of destiny or if it was OKC All Along.

NBA Pick: Series Correct Order: G1 IND, G2 OKC, G3 IND, G4 OKC, G5 OKC, G6 IND, G7 IND (+980) at FanDuel

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Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar16/06/2025 - 12:34 pm