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Los Angeles Chargers 2025 NFL Season Preview and Picks: Making Justin Herbert Modernized
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The Los Angeles Chargers had a successful first season under coach Jim Harbaugh in his return to the NFL coaching ranks. But things unraveled quickly in the playoffs, and the Chargers are still seeking the first playoff win of the Justin Herbert era, which is going into Year 6.
There have been comparisons in the past to Peyton Manning because of the way Herbert has prolifically thrown for so many yards and touchdowns right out of the gate since he was drafted in 2020. There’s also an interesting comparison in that Manning got Tony Dungy as his defensive-minded coach in his fifth season (2002) in Indianapolis, and Harbaugh joined Herbert in Year 5.
By Year 6, Manning won his first MVP award and his first playoff games with his best season to that point. The Chargers will hope for the same with Herbert this year, but he’s got a tougher task in slaying the Kansas City dragon as that team’s aiming for a 10th-straight AFC West title.
The Chargers have not hosted a playoff game since the 2009 AFC divisional round loss to the Jets. Their last six playoff games (2-4 record) have been on the road. This team has also not stacked playoff appearances since their run in 2006-09, and they have to worry about a Denver team that also made the playoffs last year, and the Raiders should be better this season as well.
Chances are, this division won’t get three playoff teams again, so the Chargers must modernize their offensive approach around Herbert to give themselves the best shot at another trip to the tournament to get that elusive playoff win.
Let’s look at the 2024 miscues for the Chargers, where they need to improve, what’s changed, and the best Chargers bets for 2025.
Table of Contents
Previously on CHARGERS: The Help for Herbert in the Regular Season and the Hell of the Postseason
All we’ve been saying for years is the Chargers need to get Justin Herbert some help so that he doesn’t have to throw over 40 passes every week and find himself in a shootout situation so often.
Coach Jim Harbaugh essentially did that for him as the Chargers had the No. 1 scoring defense at 17.7 points per game (No. 3 in points per drive allowed). Herbert barely eclipsed 500 pass attempts in a 17-game season, and the running game showed up at times with J.K. Dobbins having a nice bounce-back season.
All that said, Herbert did lose the first three games of his career, where the Chargers allowed fewer than 20 points last year, as those used to be automatic wins for him. It doesn’t help that two of them were against the Chiefs in another tight season series with their rival. The division could have been the Chargers’ if they prevailed in the fourth quarter of those games, but once again, they couldn’t do it.
But losing to Arizona in a 17-15 game was a tough look, too, in a game where Herbert’s lack of receivers other than rookie Ladd McConkey showed up. That would be a recurring theme throughout the season, and it came to a head in the wild card round in Houston when McConkey dazzled with 197 receiving yards and an 86-yard touchdown.
But Herbert ended up throwing 4 interceptions in the 32-12 loss, a shocking number when you consider he never had more than 2 picks in his career in any game, and he threw 3 all season long. Even if you acknowledge the fourth one was with the game out of reach and tight end Will Dissly did him dirty with a drop on another one, it was still a bad game by Herbert after a good season.
The Plan for 2025: Let Herbert Cook
The expectations were built in that the 2024 Chargers would dial back the passing game in favor of the run to suit the coaching styles of Jim Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman, who were together with the 49ers when Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick enjoyed success on loaded teams.
But it was always going to be a work in progress as they never had a quarterback as prolific as Herbert, who still ranks No. 8 in NFL history with 267.0 passing yards per game. You want to put the ball in his hands often, but at the same time, you need to give him more rushing support to make his job easier.
The Chargers walked this tightrope all season long. In the first two games of the season, they had 270 net passing yards and 395 rushing yards, so the changes to the team were evident right away.
But you could also make the argument that the Chargers mishandled a Herbert injury situation in Weeks 3-4 that cost them a real shot at winning the division. They rushed Herbert to play against the Steelers before he was really ready, and he left that game in the third quarter before the Steelers won 20-10. A week later, in the more important matchup with Kansas City, Herbert didn’t have 100% mobility, and it hurt the Chargers after they blew a 10-0 lead in a 17-10 loss that was there for the taking.
As the season wore on, the running game was less successful. In fact, the most rushing yards the Chargers had in any game were the first two. Once J.K. Dobbins started experiencing injuries, the big plays disappeared, and the Chargers were reverting back to their old selves a bit, with an albeit stronger defense.
At the end of the year, the Chargers were No. 19 in yards per drive and No. 13 in points per drive. Average numbers that are unlikely to win you a championship unless you have an elite defense that shows up in the big games.
Scoring points to outduel elite offenses like the Ravens and Buccaneers was going to be tough when Herbert clearly had little trust in his weapons outside of rookie Ladd McConkey, who looks like an incredible pickup after he had 82 catches for 1,149 yards and 7 touchdowns.
In the last three games of the regular season, the Chargers did shift back to relying more on Herbert, who threw for 911 yards and 7 touchdowns in a 3-0 stretch against the Broncos, Raiders, and Patriots.
But in the playoffs, Herbert stumbled with those picks, something he avoided almost all year. Hopefully, he puts that behind him because the truth is this team will turn the ball over more in 2025. The 2024 Chargers had just 9 giveaways, the second-lowest amount in a season in NFL history. Herbert’s 3 interceptions on 504 attempts has only been bested by Aaron Rodgers in 2018 when he had 2 interceptions on 597 passes.
But Rodgers went 6-9-1 as a starter that year, and as we saw in the playoffs, it’s not like this low interception rate guarantees success for the Chargers. A desperation throw here, a bad bounce there, and you’re looking at multiple picks in a double-digit loss to a good team.
Still, the Chargers must soldier on and build around Herbert as he’ll still be the key to them ever overtaking the Chiefs in this division. While they need to stop the Chiefs in the fourth quarter on defense, you’re not beating that team when you score 10-to-17 points. They must do better.
As we’ll look at in the next section, it sounds like the Chargers are gearing up to run the ball better in 2025. That’s not a bad thing. They need to do better as they only had 1,556 rushing yards from non-quarterbacks in 17 games last year. That’s not even 100 yards per game of rushing support for Herbert.
They have Joe Alt at right tackle, and he could ascend to a higher level in Year 2. McConkey could even get better as he was only scratching the surface last year. But if Quentin Johnston can ever figure it out and become a reliable WR2 for Herbert, then the Chargers should be back to cooking as a passing offense after gutting so many of Herbert’s best receivers when Harbaugh showed up last year.
Getting better on defense will still ultimately lead the Chargers to where they want to go, but they can’t forget they have a quarterback who can sling it with the best of them in Herbert. Don’t be afraid to let him throw early and often in games, then maybe you won’t even need to rely on him late and can close things out on the ground.
If the Chargers are ever going to make noise in January in the AFC in a conference with Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Josh Allen, then they have to let Herbert be all that he can be, too.
He’s not a caretaker/bus driver at quarterback.
Los Angeles Chargers Offseason Review
The Chargers return with their core coaching staff intact. They used the draft and free agency to upgrade the weapons around Herbert, but they also said goodbye to a long-time pass rusher in Joey Bosa.
Herbert’s New Toys
On the surface, it might look like the Chargers are gearing up to feature their running game again, as they made a lot of moves on that front:
- The Chargers did not retain running backs Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins.
- They signed Najee Harris (Steelers) in free agency, and he’s someone who is used to a high workload as a runner and receiver.
- They used their first-round pick on running back Omarion Hampton, who many saw as the second-best prospect after Ashton Jeanty in this draft.
- They signed right guard Mekhi Becton, who has had a lot of injuries to overcome in his career.
Drafting Hampton after signing Harris is a bit odd, as Harris is such a volume player. But he did get some taste of a committee approach with losing touches to Jaylen Warren in Pittsburgh. Still, Hampton should probably be the primary back this year, and it’s not like the Chargers can’t get more from their top back duo. Last year, injuries limited Dobbins and Edwards to 1,270 combined rushing yards. Hampton and Harris could certainly outpace that.
At receiver, the Chargers lost their third-leading receiver, Josh Palmer (Bills), but the plan to make up for that is bringing back Mike Williams and using a second-round pick on Tre Harris. Williams had a tough 2024 as Aaron Rodgers basically threw him under the bus with the Jets after some ugly losses on late interceptions targeting Williams, and then the Steelers traded for Williams but couldn’t seem to figure out how to throw him more than one pass per game.
Herbert should be glad to see Williams is back, but going on 31 years old, expectations should be tempered as you’re likely never getting the 2022 version back of him again. As for Harris, you’re looking at 6’2” receiver who could win some contested catches and will hopefully learn some things from a veteran like Williams.
The Chargers also brought in Tyler Conklin at tight end from the Jets, so that’s someone who can catch the ball to go along with Will Dissly. But maybe the big key to getting more out of this receiving corps, beyond a masterful second season from Ladd McConkey, is for Quentin Johnston to put it all together in his third season. He showed improvement last year, but there were still too many focus drops and underwhelming games.
The Defensive Changes: Saying Adios to Joey Bosa
It’s the end of an era as Joey Bosa, the last first-round pick by the San Diego Chargers in 2016, was released and signed with Buffalo. Bosa was often injured, and he actually had half of a fewer sack than safety Derwin James (5.5) last year, but that’s a piece the Chargers will need to replace. Outside linebacker Tuli Tuipulotu was already picking up some of the slack last year with 8.5 sacks and 17 quarterback hits in his second season.
The Chargers’ pass rush with Bosa last year was a bit odd statistically, as they were middle of the road in blitz rate, and they had by far the worst pressure rate (19.8% at Pro Football Reference) for the top 12 defenses in sacks where they were tied for sixth with 46 sacks. So, there could be some negative regression there in sacks if they can’t get this pressure rate up in 2025.
After using their top two picks on skill players, Harbaugh’s defense got a new defensive tackle for the future in the third round in Oregon’s Jamaree Caldwell. You could see more impact snaps this year from fourth-round edge rusher Kyle Kennard from South Carolina.
The Chargers also added a couple of veterans who could start for the defense in free agency, including corner Donte Jackson (Steelers) and defensive lineman Da’Shawn Hand (Dolphins).
It does not resonate on paper as a championship-caliber defense, especially at cornerback and inside linebacker where they’re quite young, but it’s not really a step back from last season when they were No. 1 in points allowed even without forcing an inordinate amount of turnovers (23 takeaways ranked 13th in the league).
However, the Chargers were No. 1 in the red zone at limiting touchdowns (45.0%) and No. 5 on third downs (35.7%), so they knew how to get off the field in the big spots. That’s what you call good coaching, and they’ll need more of it this year as those are hard stats to do well in year over year on the defensive side of the ball.
Best Bets for the 2025 Chargers
At FanDuel, the Chargers are -124 to make the playoffs while Denver is -114, so it could be a pretty tight race there, so those head-to-head games take on a lot of meaning this year. The Chargers host Denver in Week 3 but will have to go to Denver in the Week 18 finale, so you have to give the Broncos an advantage there at home if it comes down to that last game for a wild-card spot or even the AFC West title, should Kansas City falter.
The Chargers are -120 to finish under 9.5 wins, which would be a step back from their 11-6 record last season. To be fair, sweeping Denver and outlasting the Bengals after nearly blowing a huge lead were the best wins of the season for the Chargers, so a tougher schedule in 2025 combined with some turnover regression could in fact produce a worse record unless Herbert is on that Manning timeline and ready to ascend to the next level.
In fact, Herbert for MVP (+2000 at FanDuel) is definitely worth a shot in some award parlays as the “quarterback in Year 2 of a new offense” has been successful before when Matt Ryan (2016 Falcons) and Aaron Rodgers (2020 Packers) won MVP. Technically, the same is true for Patrick Mahomes (2018 Chiefs), Lamar Jackson (2019 Ravens), and even Josh Allen last year given his coordinator was in his second year.
But for Herbert to win MVP, he’s probably going to have to overcome the Chiefs and win the division. Based on our Kansas City projection of 12-plus wins and optimism for the offense getting back to elite levels, that likely isn’t happening in Los Angeles this season.
On top of the tough division games, which start the year with three in a row, the Chargers have to play the Commanders, Vikings, Steelers, Eagles, and Texans. I believe in Harbaugh and Herbert, but I don’t believe enough in the roster to think the best-case scenario for the Chargers won’t be straddling the line between 9-8 and 10-7, which may or may not be good enough for the playoffs.
Given I think the Chargers have made the fewest improvements of the four teams in the AFC West this year, I’m going to take the under 9.5 wins and for the team to miss the playoffs. But circle that Week 18 game in Denver as it could easily be the deciding factor on both of those futures markets, and sadly, if it’s another de-facto playoff game for this team, it’s another time they’re on the road.
- NFL Pick: Chargers under 9.5 wins (-120 at FanDuel)
- NFL Pick: Chargers to miss the playoffs (+100 at FanDuel)
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