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Las Vegas Raiders 2025 NFL Season Preview and Picks: Reunion for Pete Carroll and Geno Smith in an Elite Division

Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar14/07/2025 - 10:02 am
KANSAS CITY, MO - NOVEMBER 29: Maxx Crosby #98 of the Las Vegas Raiders runs across the field during an NFL football game against the Kansas City Chiefs at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on November 29, 2024 in Kansas City, Missouri.
(Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images)

This will be the sixth NFL season for the Las Vegas Raiders since the team made the move in 2020 but seeking that first playoff game in their new city will be very difficult when you share a division with the Kansas City Chiefs. On top of that, the Chargers and Broncos made the playoffs last year, too, so new coach Pete Carroll, the oldest coach in NFL history (74 this September), has his work cut out for him.

In fact, the Raiders haven’t won a playoff game since the 2002 AFC Championship Game, so it’s been an agonizing drought for what was once of the league’s winningest franchises.

But Carroll will try to rekindle the relationship he had with quarterback Geno Smith in Seattle when the duo made the playoffs in the 2022 season. Geno at least gives the team the quarterback stability it never had in 2024 behind a lame duck coach like Antonio Pierce.

This offense may also have the league’s strongest incline towards a great running back and tight end duo with question marks at wide receiver after the Raiders drafted Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty in April. Then don’t forget the record-setting rookie season tight end Brock Bowers had last year.

It should be more fun to watch than last year’s team, but expectations are still tempered with the Raiders having an over/under 7.5 wins with heavy juice (-160 at FanDuel) on the under. But let’s look at the changes, why the Raiders have a shot to surprise people, and the best Raiders bets for 2025.

Previously on RAIDERS: The Predictable 2024 Season   

Writing the preview for the 2024 Raiders a year ago was one of the easiest calls in the league as the quarterback situation was the worst for the long term in the NFL, and the promotion of coach Antonio Pierce was a highly suspect decision. You just can’t trust a coach who loses a 3-0 game indoors, or who gets his biggest win (Christmas in Kansas City) after two defensive touchdowns in seven seconds and after not completing a pass after the first quarter.

Sure enough, uneven quarterback play hurt the Raiders all year as Pierce couldn’t make up his mind between Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell – not that he had a good choice either way. The running game was the worst in the NFL, and the passing game was mostly just good for playing the over on Brock Bowers props. He was the real deal.

The defense wasn’t much better and Maxx Crosby missed five games with injury as the only competent part of the pass rush. The Raiders limped to a 4-13 finish with the only encouraging win a 10-point comeback in Baltimore early in the year.

But that was never enough to keep Pierce’s job secure, so he was ousted after one season.

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - AUGUST 17: Maxx Crosby #98 of the Las Vegas Raiders celebrates against the Dallas Cowboys during the first half of a preseason game at Allegiant Stadium on August 17, 2024 in Las Vegas, Nevada.
(Photo by Brandon Sloter/Getty Images)

Las Vegas Raiders Offseason Review

Unlike the rest of the AFC West where coaching and quarterback stability is king after all three teams made the playoffs, the Raiders have made major changes at the most important positions. We’ll go over those below as well as the draft haul.

Pete Carroll Back in the Saddle

He looks like someone’s grandpa going on 74, but Pete Carroll certainly doesn’t act his age. He’s got more energy than most of us, and he’s been one of the most successful coaches in the 21st century at the NCAA (USC) and NFL (Seahawks) levels. His biggest sins are his teams not being able to run the ball for a solid yard or two in the 2006 Rose Bowl against Texas and the end of Super Bowl 49 against New England.

A defensive coach at heart, the elephant in the room is that Carroll’s defenses did not rank in the top 10 in his final seven seasons in Seattle (2017-23). It just seemed once the Legion of Boom got older, he had no answers there in a tough division. Meanwhile, in one year on the job, Carroll’s predecessor (Mike Macdonald) had the Seahawks ranked No. 6 and No. 5 in yards and points per drive allowed in a 10-win season.

You can make the argument that Carroll’s best days are behind him, but he’s still worlds better than what the Raiders had in the coaching ranks over the years. He’ll have the team ready to be much more competitive this year.

Chip Kelly, Meet Geno Smith

This is an interesting coaching staff as Carroll is bringing offensive mastermind Chip Kelly with him as the new offensive coordinator. Kelly had that successful stint at Oregon before taking the Philadelphia Eagles job in 2013 where he had some instant success, but ultimately, things didn’t work out and he never won a playoff game with his fast-paced offense.

Then Kelly had that disastrous 2-14 season with the 49ers in 2016, and he had to go back to the college game with UCLA (2018-23) and Ohio State (2024 assistant) after that. But now he’s back in the NFL, and he has a veteran quarterback already familiar with playing for Carroll in Geno Smith, who started games in Seattle with Carroll in 2021-23.

Smith was a legitimate Pro Bowler in 2022 with the highest completion percentage in the NFL and 30 touchdown passes to lead the NFC. But there were some diminishing returns with that offense each year, and they were increasingly relying on Smith to pull out some game-winning drives to keep the team in contention for the playoffs as they always threatened for a wild card berth but ultimately never came close to winning a playoff game together.

NASHVILLE, TN - DECEMBER 24: Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith (7) during a game between the Tennessee Titans and Seattle Seahawks, December 24, 2023 at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tennessee.
(Photo by Matthew Maxey/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

But with Smith, you’re getting someone who should be comfortable in Kelly’s passing offense that will utilize speed and tempo. We know he’s going to absolutely love throwing to Brock Bowers, who already had the most prolific rookie season with 112 catches for 1,194 yards and 5 touchdowns. He showed an ability to make plays at every level of the field. He could already be the best tight end in the league.

That’s the No. 1 receiver in this offense – no question. The dilemma is Geno is coming over from Seattle, where he had a very nice wide receiver trio in D.K. Metcalf (big, physical freak athlete), Tyler Lockett (reliable hands and routes), and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (emerging star). With the Raiders, the only proven wideout figures to be Jakobi Meyers, who could work the slot and be that reliable receiver like Lockett. Meyers had 87 catches for 1,027 yards last year.

We’ll see if Geno can get more out of Tre Tucker, a 2023 third-round pick going into Year 3. He had 539 yards last year and is a small receiver (5’9”), but he’s produced some 50-yard plays for this offense already.

Otherwise, Smith is going to have to work in the rookies. The Raiders drafted Jack Bech (TCU) in the second round. A former LSU transfer, he had his best year of college football in his senior year with 1,034 yards and 9 touchdowns.

The Raiders also have high hopes for fourth-round rookie Dont’e Thornton Jr. from Tennessee. He’s 6’5” with a 4.3 40-yard dash, and while he only caught 65 balls in four college seasons with Oregon and Tennessee, he averaged 21.9 yards per catch. This is a very interesting prospect to keep an eye on this season as Geno should be eyeing him up as his new Metcalf if they can put the work in together in Year 1.

You might wonder how a guy with rare physical traits lasted to the fourth round, but it’s your classic story of limited production and a limited route tree, making it a fair question if he can adjust to a pro-style offense. But Chip Kelly is the right coach to try making this work with Thornton.

The Raiders have potential for nice weapons, but they need to figure it out quickly this year with a new coaching staff and quarterback while the rest of the AFC West is well set in their ways.

Ashton Jeanty: Rookie of the Year Favorite?

It’s crazy to think we once questioned if the Raiders should draft running back Ashton Jeanty or consider a quarterback like Shedeur Sanders with that No. 6 pick. But they stuck to their guns and took the Boise State running back and Heisman Trophy runner-up as we all expected they would.

This is one heck of a landing spot for Jeanty, who rushed for 2,601 yards and 29 touchdowns last season. We know Carroll likes to pound the ball and had a superstar college back in Reggie Bush at USC. We know he built his offensive identity in Seattle with Marshawn Lynch. He had a talented back the last few years in Kenneth Walker, but he didn’t always put it together or stay healthy for him.

Jeanty is a work horse, and going to a Kelly-coached offense could be a blessing for him. Lest we forget, the 2013 Eagles had a strong running game for Kelly’s up-tempo offense. They led the league with 2,566 rushing yards and 5.1 yards per carry. That season, LeSean McCoy had the best season of his career as it was the only time he ever led the league in carries (314), rushing yards (1,607), and yards from scrimmage (2,146).

That doesn’t mean you should bet on Jeanty to win the rushing title as a rookie, because the Raiders probably won’t lead games often enough for him to achieve that. But he absolutely should be the favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year as he’ll have a great shot to rush for over 1,200 yards and score double-digit touchdowns.

The Raiders also added Raheem Mostert to the backfield, so they have much more credibility at that position too this year. However, the offensive line is crucial for the running game to work. The Raiders return four starters from last year and have added veteran guard Alex Cappa, who has been part of successful offenses with the Buccaneers (2018-21) and Bengals (2022-24).

But the hope here will be that the changes to the coaches, the running back and quarterback talent, and the growth of second-year players Jackson Powers-Johnson and DJ Glaze will have this line and offense in much better shape than 2024.

The Defensive Changes: Keeping Patrick Graham   

When a team fires a head coach, it is common to release many of the assistants as well. In some cases, you may see a successful coordinator stay on with the new regime. But it’s a little surprising that Carroll retained defensive coordinator Patrick Graham, who has never worked under Carroll before. But he’s been the Raiders’ defensive coordinator since 2022 with mixed results.

Graham’s had a couple of top 10 defenses in his career as a coordinator, but he’s usually had a bottom 25% unit. You can argue he hasn’t had a lot of talent to work with in Las Vegas, but the Raiders used free agency and some of the draft to try to amend that this year.

It all starts up front with Maxx Crosby coming back healthy and returning to All-Pro status. Even after missing a handful of games, Crosby led the team in sacks (7.5) and had more than double the pressures (35) of the next closest Raider. That’s why Tyree Wilson, the No. 7 pick in the 2023 draft, better show up this year for Carroll or else that pick is going to look like a real bust.

The Raiders did not really spend on the pass rush, as they already did a year ago when they added Christian Wilkins from the Dolphins. However, his season ended with an injury in Week 5, so they are looking for him to make a healthy return as well alongside Crosby.

Otherwise, the Raiders signed some veterans who can be Week 1 starters, like linebackers Elandon Roberts (Steelers) and Germaine Pratt (Bengals), safety Jeremy Chinn (Commanders), and corner Eric Stokes (Packers).

That will make the Raiders one of the most outsourced defenses in the NFL as only Crosby and Malcolm Koonce are draft picks in the front seven. As for that secondary, you hope for some takeaways from Chinn, but it could be a rough group if that pass rush doesn’t step up with Crosby and Wilkins.

The Raiders used a high third-round pick (No. 68) on corner Darien Porter (Iowa State). He’ll probably be a Week 1 starter for a defense that let go of the four players who were targeted the most in coverage last year in corners Jack Jones and Nate Hobbs, linebacker Robert Spillane, and safety Tre’von Moehrig.  

Best Bets for the 2025 Raiders

There are legitimate reasons to be excited about this Las Vegas offense, which will need to be very good in a division with the coaches and quarterbacks the AFC West has. Beyond those six games, the Raiders are facing Jayden Daniels (Commanders), Dak Prescott (Cowboys), the defending champion Eagles in Philly in December, and they’ll see C.J. Stroud in Houston in Week 16.

They’re also going to play some young second-year quarterbacks early in the season like Drake Maye (Patriots) and Caleb Williams (Bears), who both have a much better coach this season. If Mike Vrabel and Ben Johnson have those teams turned around quickly this year, you could be looking at a rough September for Carroll’s team before he gets the Colts and Titans to start October.

The Raiders should still have the worst defense in the division, but that unique combo of Bowers and Jeanty could be enough to power them to some upset wins for teams that aren’t prepared to deal with them.

While a 7-10 finish looks very realistic for this team, it’s hard to trust them to go over 7.5 wins when you are that No. 4 team defensively in a tough division, and if Bo Nix takes a big leap forward in Year 2, Geno may even be the No. 4 quarterback in the AFC West as well.

It’s a pretty tough schedule, too, with the NFC East offering several challenges beyond just the six AFC West games. But maybe my favorite bet related to the Raiders is the current value on Ashton Jeanty to win Offensive Rookie of the Year (+270 at FanDuel). It’s not a deep quarterback class at all, with basically Cam Ward (+300) in Tennessee as the only competition.

Travis Hunter may stretch himself too thin trying to play both sides that he’s not a good pick for either rookie award. No tight end has ever won the award, and if Bowers couldn’t win it last year, then you might as well forget about a 2025 tight end winning it.

I’d trust Jeanty to take home that award, and I’d go over for his rushing yards as better value picks than the Raiders’ win total. Either way, don’t expect this team to make the playoffs in 2025.

  • NFL Pick: 2025 Offensive Rookie of the Year Award winner – Ashton Jeanty (+270) at FanDuel
  • NFL Pick: Ashton Jeanty over 1050.5 rushing yards (-110) at Bet365
  • NFL Pick: Raiders under 7.5 wins (-160) at FanDuel

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Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar14/07/2025 - 10:02 am