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Chicago Bears 2025 NFL Season Preview and Picks: How Fast Can Ben Johnson Change the Offensive Culture?

Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar01/08/2025 - 01:48 pm
LAKE FOREST, ILLINOIS - JUNE 04: Caleb Williams #18 of the Chicago Bears talks with head coach Ben Johnson during Chicago Bears OTA Offseason Workout at Halas Hall on June 04, 2025 in Lake Forest, Illinois.
(Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

If 2024 was about asking if the Chicago Bears finally found their true successor to quarterback Sid Luckman after drafting Caleb Williams first overall, then 2025’s big question is if Ben Johnson will be the team’s best coach since Mike Ditka.

It’s not like the Bears haven’t tried to hire an offensive coach before. Who can forget Marc Trestman in 2013-14? Well, a 13-19 record is pretty forgettable, so probably a lot of people have memory holed that brief era.

As Chicago’s 2024 season proved, you still need a good coach to develop that rookie quarterback. Williams didn’t get that from Matt Ebeflus and company, and it’s a wonder why they kept that staff instead of cleaning house before the 2024 draft.

When we did that May 2024 article about Caleb walking into the best situation for a No. 1 overall pick at quarterback, we clearly didn’t stress the importance of coaching and offensive line enough.

But at least when it came time to do the 2024 preview for Chicago, I didn’t trust Eberflus enough to go with the Bears winning over 8.5 games as they were favored to do, nor did I pick them to make the playoffs, which they had coin-flip odds for.

Naturally, the Bears finished 5-12 and Eberflus was fired after his Thanksgiving debacle in Detroit. But now that the team’s hired Johnson, there’s optimism again. However, the sportsbooks are less enthused with the Bears (juice is on under 8.5 wins this time) in an elite division that sent three teams to the playoffs with a combined 40-11 record with several of those losses coming against each other.

Yet, the Lions (15-2), Vikings (14-3), and Packers (11-6) all won as many playoff games as the 2024 Bears: Zero.

This is our first NFC North preview for 2025, and with the Lions poaching Johnson from Detroit and the Vikings going with an inexperienced quarterback (J.J. McCarthy), it does feel like a division where some huge swings could take place this year. That’d be pretty comical (and a bit insane) if the Bears went from last to first while the other three missed the playoffs as the schedule should be tougher in 2025.

But we’re going to get into everything from last year’s implosion to the potentially huge hiring of Johnson to the improved roster around Williams and the best Bears bets for 2025.

Previously on BEARS: Hail Mary, Full of Disgrace

It’s always weird to remember when a 5-12 team actually started a season 4-2 before absolutely imploding, but that’s what the 2024 Bears did.

Was it one of those fluky Chicago runs where the defense and special teams get a bunch of return touchdowns and wild plays to help pick up the offensive slack? Yeah, the 17-point comeback win in Week 1 against a terrible Tennessee team was like that with a blocked punt return touchdown and a game-winning touchdown coming on a pick-six in the fourth quarter.

So, one game into his NFL career, Caleb Williams technically had a 17-point comeback win, and it was for a game where he completed 14-of-29 passes for 93 yards. Not great, Bob. Then if you saw Williams take seven sacks in prime time in Houston in Week 2, you’re feeling a bit worried about where this season was headed.

But the schedule helped out:

  • The Bears caught the Rams when they were missing their wide receivers (Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp) and in an early funk (started 1-4 before their bye).
  • They beat up (36-10) on a bad Carolina team that recently benched Bryce Young for Andy Dalton.
  • The offense was rolling in England in a 35-16 win over the Jaguars to get to 4-2.

Bad opponents or not, the Bears had back-to-back games where they scored 35 points and won by at least 19 points. It’s actually the last such streak in the NFL as no other team did it the rest of the season. Hell, the Chiefs, today’s dynasty team, haven’t had consecutive wins like that since the 2020 season.

There was at least some optimism about the Bears coming out of their bye week at 4-2. But everything hit the fan in Week 8 in Washington. After battling back to take a late lead, the Bears completely blew their defensive assignments on the final drive and gave up a Hail Mary touchdown to Jayden Daniels and the Commanders in the season’s most stunning finish. It’s the first NFL game since 1977 where each team scored a go-ahead touchdown in the final 30 seconds.

Soon, we got a good reminder of why Eberflus was 3-22 (.120) in games with a fourth-quarter comeback opportunity in Chicago. We said the NFC North was elite last year, arguably the best division of all time (ignoring playoff results, of course). But there was a 3-week stretch where Williams had the team in position to beat all three of those teams. They blew every game though:

  • The Bears lost 20-19 at home to Green Bay after giving up the late lead and seeing kicker Cairo Santos’ 46-yard game-winning attempt get blocked in the final seconds.
  • A week later, the Bears made an incredible 11-point comeback to force overtime, manufacturing all 11 points in the final 1:56 thanks to recovering an onside kick. But a quick sack in overtime led to a three-and-out before the Vikings won 30-27 on a field goal.
  • On Thanksgiving in Detroit, the Bears were down 16-0 at halftime before Williams threw three touchdown passes in the second half. Down 23-20, the Bears were marching into field-goal range before probably the worst display of clock management in NFL history as the game ended after a sack and a desperation heave from Williams as time expired.

As you’d expect, Eberflus was fired after that Detroit disaster. The offense really cratered after the Hail Mary loss as Williams was on his way to taking 68 sacks, which was almost the single-season record for one quarterback to take (76 by rookie David Carr for the 2002 Texans). Oddly enough, Williams only threw six picks while taking 68 sacks. Among the 62 quarterbacks to take at least 50 sacks in a season, Williams had the lowest interception rate (1.1%) of them all.

But it led to this incredibly weird streak where the Bears lost 9 straight games despite throwing 0 interceptions in those games. The previous longest streak was five games by a few teams. The Chicago streak was one snap away from hitting 10 games, but Williams’ 4th-down pass was picked off in an ugly 6-3 loss to Seattle.

On a bright note, the Bears finally beat Green Bay in the finale with Williams leading the first game-winning drive of his NFL career, and Santos redeeming the kicking unit with a 51-yard field goal on the final snap of a 24-22 win.

The 2024 Bears had some memorable games, they finally fired Eberflus, and they beat the Packers in Week 18. In that context, maybe it wasn’t such a bad season after all. Even the new “Da Pope” is a Bears fan from Chicago.

Can Ben Johnson Change the Culture in Chicago?

For decades, you could go into an NFL season without expecting much from the passing game of the Bears, and you’d almost always be right. People are still trying to figure out where that 1995 Erik Kramer season came from, but that’s what you call a one-year wonder. That’s why I got his Bears jersey on sale really cheap in middle school and people thought it was for Kramer from Seinfeld.

You basically learn at a young age that the Bears had legendary players like Gale Sayers and Dick Butkus in the 1960s, and they’re basically just trying to repeat that success at running back (Walter Payton) and linebacker (Mike Singletary, Brian Urlacher) to field a good running game and defense. They also can get the job done on special teams (Devin Hester).

But throwing the ball? Color TVs didn’t exist yet when Sid Luckman could sling that thing in the 1940s. The Bears and passing just don’t go together, and that’s why the team has rarely had good seasons for decades, and it’s why they’ve struggled so much with Green Bay (prolific passers) in the division.

But hope springs eternal for the Bears after taking Williams in the 2024 draft. After one season, some fans are probably wishing they took Jayden Daniels, Washington’s No. 2 pick, instead. Daniels had the greatest rookie quarterback season ever in leading the NFL’s most irrelevant franchise in the salary-cap era to the NFC Championship Game.

LAKE FOREST, ILLINOIS - MAY 10: Caleb Williams #18 of the Chicago Bears speaks to the media prior to Chicago Bears Rookie Minicamp at Halas Hall on May 10, 2024 in Lake Forest, Illinois.
(Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

It’s a big head start for Daniels over the 2024 class, but not so fast on calling this a wrap. Williams could turn this around, and even Daniels’ season is an example of what happens if you get adequate coaching from the likes of Dan Quinn and offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury.

Chicago’s coaching was a disaster last year. Not only did they fire Eberflus for Detroit’s clock management, but offensive coordinator Shane Waldron was fired after nine games, something you almost never see happening to a first-year coordinator at midseason. It’s no wonder there were stories this offseason that Williams was given no guidance on how to watch film during his rookie season.

This is where Ben Johnson can step in from Detroit and really make a difference. He’s 39 years old and had been with the Lions since 2019. Dan Campbell made him the passing game coordinator in 2021 when Campbell and Jared Goff joined the team, and in 2022, Johnson became the offensive coordinator and play-caller. In the next three seasons, Detroit averaged the most points and yards per game of all offenses in the NFL.

The talent in Detroit was special, but Johnson helped Goff turn his career around after the Rams dumped him in the Matthew Stafford trade. He helped a fourth-round pick like Amon-Ra St. Brown turn into one of the game’s best receivers. He got instant rookie production out of tight end Sam LaPorta, and tight ends usually don’t produce much in Year 1.

Johnson knew how to balance things with a strong running game and using multiple backs to do it. He knows the power of play-action passing and how that can make things easier on the quarterback. He’s creative with trick plays too as seen on this simulated fumble that led to a touchdown in Chicago last season.

Johnson doesn’t come from a notable coaching tree like the many coaches tied to Sean McVay, Kyle Shanahan, or Andy Reid. He’s been around Dan Campbell much of his career, but that also means he shares Campbell’s enthusiasm for using all four downs on offense and how to be aggressive and successful with that knowledge.

Johnson is a smart offensive mind and just seems to have the right vision for how today’s NFL is played. Ever since the Bears hired him, he’s been saying the right things like how he’ll tailor his offense to fit Caleb’s talents. He won’t just ask him to be a Jared Goff clone. He’ll reinvent the system to fit his new quarterback as he should.

I also really liked this clip where Johnson stressed a stat like EPA (Expected Points Added) in the passing game is determining wins and losses more than turnovers, which can be a really overrated stat to focus on.

Now, you might say that sounds like a coach who lost his last playoff game with five turnovers, including a brutal trick-play interception thrown by his wide receiver, trying to save face. But he’s correct that efficiency in the passing game can determine 70 to 80% of outcomes in the NFL today. Turnovers are often situation-based, and as the 2024 Bears showed, you can still throw zero interceptions and lose nine games in a row for other reasons.

In fact, that’s one of the most exciting things about Johnson and Williams working together as he’ll get him to take fewer sacks, which can have a huge negative impact on drives and add up like “mini-turnovers” themselves. If you double your number to 12 interceptions, who really cares if you end up taking 35 sacks instead of 68? Just avoid the crucial picks (game on the line, the ball deep in either end, an easy touchdown return opportunity for the defense, etc.).

Johnson has also noted 70% completions as a goal for Williams. Not as sure about that one, because you don’t want to get there playing scared, checkdown offense and ending up like 2006 David Carr. But Williams has expressed his own desire to be Chicago’s first 4,000-yard passer, which should absolutely be doable in Johnson’s offense.

Getting the ball out quicker definitely seems to be a major focus for Johnson and Williams. According to NextGenStats, Caleb’s time to throw (2.92 seconds) was the seventh-longest average last season. In Detroit, Goff was middle of the pack (2.79 seconds), but where you see the big difference is when the quarterbacks didn’t use play-action: Goff was the fifth fastest (2.56 seconds) and Williams was again the seventh slowest (2.82 seconds).

These comparisons between Williams and Goff are fitting for reasons that go beyond Johnson’s source of employment. Goff happens to be one of the best examples ever of a quarterback, drafted No. 1 overall, who had a horrific rookie year (2016 Rams), but he got an offensive-minded coach in Year 2 (Sean McVay), they added more weapons, and the 2017 Rams led the NFL in scoring and made the playoffs with an 11-5 record.

That’s exactly what Johnson would like to do with Williams and the Bears in 2025. McVay won Coach of the Year in 2017 for that. Matt Nagy won it a year later for his similar job with Mitchell Trubisky in Chicago. In fact, we’ve seen a handful of playoff teams with this type of setup (rookie coach and second-year quarterback):

  • 2013 Eagles: QB Nick Foles and HC Chip Kelly
  • 2017 Rams: QB Jared Goff and HC Sean McVay
  • 2018 Bears: QB Mitch Trubisky and HC Matt Nagy
  • 2021 Eagles: QB Jalen Hurts and HC Nick Sirianni
  • 2022 Jaguars: QB Trevor Lawrence and HC Doug Pederson

We saw two teams try this last year without success. Dave Canales benched Bryce Young in Carolina before going back to hm in a 5-12 season. Brian Callahan had little success with Will Levis producing meme-worthy turnovers every week, and that’s why they drafted Cam Ward with the top pick.

So, it’s not exactly a high success rate when a rookie coach tries to fix a second-year quarterback. But Johnson and Williams have the pedigree to be the next McVay and Goff. They just have to start proving it this year.

They have to make Chicago a passing team for a change. Good luck to them.

Chicago Bears Offseason Review

We’ve covered the job Ben Johnson has in front of him pretty well already. He’ll be doing it with some ex-Sean Payton assistants in offensive coordinator Declan Doyle and defensive coordinator Dennis Allen, who was fired as the Saints’ coach last season.

Let’s review the players that will try to help this coaching staff improve the team in 2025.

The Surprising Draft Night Haul for the Offense

We knew from 2024 the Bears had some skill players, even if they didn’t bring back veteran receiver Keenan Allen this year. But the most glaring difference between the Detroit offense Johnson left and the Chicago offense he inherited was the offensive line. He had some great players over there, including an elite tackle in Penei Sewell.

The Bears will hope to get better tackle play out of Braxton Jones and Darnell Wright this year. They used free agency (via trades, in fact) to fix the interior, snagging left guard Joe Thuney from the Chiefs where he was stuck trying to play left tackle in the Super Bowl. But he’s a very good guard with immediate credibility added to the line. They also got Jonah Jackson from the Rams and signed free agent center Drew Dalman (40 starts in Atlanta the last four years).

This line won’t be Detroit elite, but it should be much better than last year’s unit. Still, it was maybe a bit surprising the Bears didn’t use the 10th pick in the draft on a lineman since they are important and it was arguably a position of need at tackle still.

Instead, the Bears used that top pick on Michigan tight end Colston Loveland, even taking him when Tyler Warren, the No. 1 ranked tight end by many, was still on the board. We’ll have to see how this one works out as maybe Johnson views Loveland as being more capable of being his Sam LaPorta in this offense. However, I thought Cole Kmet, who is still here, could have tried filling that role himself. Bold pick of Loveland, but he was going to go high somewhere.

But the Bears didn’t stop with the skill players there. With the 39th pick in the draft, they took Missouri wide receiver Luther Burden. He has the potential to be a talented slot, but this offense still has D.J. Moore and Rome Odunze (second year) to feature as well, so that’s a lot of riches for Williams and Johnson to play with. They also used the 56th pick on tackle Ozzy Trapilo (Boston College), so they at least threw a dart at tackle.

But you wonder how much they can run offensive sets with “02 personnel” this year with Moore, Odunze, Burden, Loveland, and Kmet on the field together. Maybe Johnson even tries to copy the 2010-12 Patriots with their 12 personnel with the two tight ends (Rob Gronkowski and [REDACTED]). It’s a lot of versatility, and the Bears also signed Olamide Zaccheaus (Commanders) and Devin Duvernay (Jaguars) for more wide receiver depth.

It’s crazy to think we waited this long to talk about the running game in Chicago, but it won’t be an afterthought here. Sure, it won’t be Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery good, but D’Andre Swift remains the lead running back. He’s worked with Johnson in Detroit before, so there’s already familiarity there. Roschon Johnson is also back for his third season.

Bears: Defensive Expectations

The Bears were decent defensively last year, but there’s always room for improvement. Dennis Allen may have failed as a head coach, but he seems like one of those coaches who would be fine as a coordinator where he can just focus on his side of the ball.

Allen will have talent, including quite a few veterans in standout corner Jaylon Johnson, safety Kevin Byard, linebackers T.J. Edwards and Tremaine Edmunds, and edge rusher Montez Sweat (led team with paltry 5.5 sacks last year). The Bears used free agency to add defensive tackle Grady Jarrett from the Falcons, and they may have found his future replacement in the draft’s second round with Shemar Turner (Texas A&M). They also added edge rusher Dayo Odeyingbo from the Colts where he spent his first four seasons.

Don’t expect the 1985 Bears, obviously. For that matter, don’t expect the 2001 Bears or the Lovie Smith-era Bears from this defense. But they won’t be the Marc Trestman-era Bears either. A stronger offense would be something this defense can appreciate this year if it means more rest and better field position.

Best Bets for the 2025 Bears

I believe in Ben Johnson and his chance to become the next top-tier coach in this league a la McVay, and we know he’ll be more aggressive on fourth downs than McVay’s ever been.

But in terms of picking Johnson to win Coach of the Year, an award he’s one of the leading candidates for, I’m not going there just yet. Maybe if the Bears were in an easier division like the South (either conference), I’d be all over him for that award. But I couldn’t go higher than third-best team in the NFC North for the Bears this year, and that’s maybe even if Williams has a really good year. The division is just that good.

But I love the Week 1 opener on a Monday night in Chicago against Minnesota, presumably J.J. McCarthy’s first NFL start. That game is a great statement for Johnson’s team, even if Brian Flores isn’t someone you’d prefer to face the defense for in your first game. But at least Johnson knows him well from those Detroit-Minnesota clashes that usually went well in Johnson’s favor.

I like the Bears to start 1-0, but it’s a tough call for over 8.5 wins this year. Those games with the Packers and Lions are always tough. The 49ers, Cowboys, Raiders, Bengals, and Steelers should all be better teams than they were last year. The Bears also have to play the NFC finalists, the Commanders and Eagles, on the road. The bye is very early (Week 5) again.

Home games against the Saints, Giants, and Browns are certainly favorable for Chicago this year. But I also think there’s a fair chance Cleveland is the only game Chicago gets favored to win in the final seven games.

I’d pick Chicago to finish third in the NFC North this year as my riskiest bet for the highest odds, but I’m going under 8.5 wins and no playoffs again. But that doesn’t mean they can’t finish 8-9 with a lot of hope for 2026. I’d also take the over 22.5 on Williams’ touchdown passes.

  • NFL Pick: Chicago Bears under 8.5 wins (-160) at FanDuel
  • NFL Pick: Chicago Bears to miss playoffs (-240) at FanDuel
  • NFL Pick: Chicago Bears to finish 3rd in NFC North (+240) at FanDuel
  • NFL Pick: Caleb Williams over 22.5 touchdown passes (-110) at Bet365

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Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar01/08/2025 - 01:48 pm