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The Top 10 Rookie Quarterback Seasons in NFL History – Is Jayden Daniels the Next Great One?
> Andrew LuckC.J. StroudNFL
> Andrew LuckC.J. StroudNFL
There was a time in the NFL when rookie quarterbacks usually had to sit and learn, possibly for more than a season, before they got their shot as the starter. But that’s not how the league works anymore, and Jayden Daniels just became the second rookie quarterback in the last three seasons to finish one game short of the Super Bowl, where no rookie has yet to start.
It will happen someday, but for now, we’re interested in creating the list of the 10 greatest rookie quarterback seasons in NFL history. It’s not very likely that Cam Ward (Titans) or anyone else in the 2025 draft class, infamous for Shedeur Sanders’ slide makes this list next year, but when it comes to rookie quarterbacks, you never quite know what you’re going to get.
Table of Contents
The Top 10 Rookie Quarterback Seasons
Before we get into the list, let’s point out that only the Super Bowl era was used and the playoffs matter. The quarterback position (and NFL as a whole) was quite different before then, but we will give out some honorable mentions anyway to those pre-1966 players:
- Sammy Baugh (1937 Redskins): The league’s greatest pre-1950 quarterback, Sammy Baugh was an instant All-Pro and led the league in attempts, completions, and was the only player to average over 100 passing yards per game in 1937. He also threw for 335 yard and 3 touchdowns in a 28-21 win in the 1937 NFL Championship Game against the Bears, so there’s that.
- Bob Waterfield (1945 Rams): Similar to Baugh, Bob Waterfield was an All-Pro quarterback as a rookie, led the NFL with 14 touchdown passes, and he edged out Baugh’s Redskins in the 1945 NFL Championship Game to also win the first ring of his Hall of Fame career.
- Charlie Conerly (1948 Giants): While his team finished 4-8, Charlie Conerly’s ability to throw 22 touchdowns and post an 84.0 passer rating in the 1948 passing climate as a rookie was incredible. He wasn’t surpassed in touchdown passes by a rookie until 50 years later when Peyton Manning threw 26 in 1998.
Let’s also give four honorable mentions to players who were incredibly efficient as rookies but saw their season (or career) derailed by injury:
- Greg Cook (1969 Bengals): One of the greatest “what if?” athletes in NFL history, Greg Cook averaged 9.4 yards per attempt and had a touchdown pass rate of 7.6% on 197 attempts in 1969, but a torn rotator cuff suffered in the third game of his career went undiagnosed, and he never recovered properly to have the career he deserved to have.
- Robert Griffin III (2012 Redskins): You have to give the Washington franchise credit for three of the greatest rookie quarterbacks ever, but RG3 quickly saw his Offensive Rookie of the Year season in 2012 turn into a career-altering event when his torn ACL in the playoffs (after some obvious neglect from his coaching staff) made sure he was never able to improve on that start.
- Deshaun Watson (2017 Texans): It feels sacrilegious to speak well of Deshaun Watson today, but in 2017, he looked like someone on the verge of having the best rookie quarterback season ever until he tore his ACL in a practice. He had 19 touchdown passes in just 7 games, and his 83.7 QBR would rank as the fourth-best season since 2006 if he qualified.
- Brock Purdy (2022 49ers): After season-ending injuries to Trey Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo, we learned about Mr. Irrelevant as Brock Purdy was the last pick in the 2022 draft. He had an incredible finish to the season, put up passing numbers in his playoff debut not seen by a rookie since Baugh in 1937, and he was unfortunately injured (elbow) on the first drive of the NFC Championship Game in Philadelphia or else he may have been the first rookie quarterback to start a Super Bowl.
10. Justin Herbert (2020 Chargers)
With respect to the 2020 pandemic season producing the best offensive numbers in a season in NFL history, Justin Herbert was incredible right out of the gate that year. He wasn’t even supposed play in his NFL debut in Week 2 against the defending champion Chiefs, but the Chargers’ medical team punctured Tyrod Taylor’s lung in a pre-game mishap, forcing Herbert into the starting lineup.
All he did was throw for 311 yards and take the Chiefs into overtime. But Herbert quickly learned the art of “Chargering” as the team blew three 17-point leads by his sixth start, a staggering fact. The Chargers finished 7-9 but certainly Herbert played well enough to have a winning record that year.
Still, Herbert is the first and still the only rookie quarterback to throw 30 touchdown passes (31), and he did it in only 15 games played.
9. Peyton Manning (1998 Colts)
When people try comparing a rookie quarterback today to what Peyton Manning did in 1998, you can take their opinion with a grain of salt and realize they don’t know what they’re talking about.
They rely on team record (3-13) and the record number of interceptions (28) Manning threw as a rookie. But what they don’t realize is that he reset the standard that year for what a rookie quarterback should be, as they rarely ever started in Week 1 before Manning in 1998. He even set a record (since broken) by throwing for 302 yards in his NFL rookie debut.
But it is true the Colts finished 3-13 and Manning threw 28 interceptions. It’s also true that:
- Manning threw 14 of those picks in his first six games before figuring things out and throwing 20 touchdowns to 14 picks in the final 10 games.
- He had the bottom-ranked scoring defense and played a schedule that featured 10 playoff teams.
- He gave the Colts five double-digit leads that they blew that year.
- After the Colts allowed 62 sacks in 1997, Manning’s quick release got that number down to 22 in 1998 despite the fact he threw a league-high 575 passes.
- He broke a 50-year record for the most touchdown passes (26) by a rookie quarterback, and he smashed the then-record for rookie passing yards (3,739) by 906 yards.
It was an ugly start, but by that Week 7 game in San Francisco when Manning took one of the best teams in the NFL down to the wire, you started to see glimpses of the player who would go on to win five MVP awards and play the position as consistently well as anyone ever has.
And from his first NFL touchdown pass, he’s still the only quarterback who understands how to throw a fade with precision and a tight arc instead of just lazily lobbing it up:
8. Matt Ryan (2008 Falcons)
The Falcons had an embarrassing season in 2007 while Michael Vick was embroiled in a dog-fighting scandal that sank the team. Good thing Matt Ryan was there with the No. 3 pick in the 2008 draft, and he immediately made an impact with a 62-yard touchdown pass on the first dropback of his career:
Atlanta had a preseason win total of 4.5 that year, but Ryan started every game and helped the team to an 11-5 record and the playoffs, where they lost to the Arizona Cardinals on the road. He finished third in QBR (68.8) that season.
While Manning being a Week 1 starter in 1998 was an outlier for rookies, it was really Ryan and Joe Flacco starting every game in their rookie seasons and making the playoffs that led to that being the new standard at the position going forward.
7. Andrew Luck (2012 Colts)
The internet archives aren’t so kind now, but in 2012, I took on a monumental task of weekly charting Andrew Luck’s rookie season, as I thought we’d be following a legend for many years to come as he took over for Manning in Indianapolis.
Luck may never have been exactly what we wanted him to be in terms of a highly efficient, smart pre-snap quarterback like Manning was. But he was a gamer, and he was a guy who you could put a ridiculous workload on to carry a team to a win, which is why he shattered the rookie record with seven game-winning drives that year to drag the Cols to 11-5.
It wasn’t always pretty, and the playoff game in Baltimore was a 24-9 dud. But Luck was special as a rookie and you could see it early in those games against the Vikings and especially the Packers.
6. Russell Wilson (2012 Seahawks)
Remember when NFL Twitter in 2012 was a huge argument between Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson fans? Fun times. Robert Griffin III may have won the Offensive Rookie of the Year award over these two, but Luck and Wilson were more valuable rookies and did more to uplift their teams.
With the value of hindsight, I can declare now that Wilson’s overall rookie season was more impressive. He threw 26 touchdown passes to tie Manning’s rookie record, and he did it on fewer attempts.
He wasn’t even supposed to start after the Seahawks acquired Matt Flynn from the Packers, but Wilson was so impressive in the preseason as a third-round pick that he got the starting job in Week 1. He only got stronger as the season wore on, and he was great in the playoffs with a road win in Washington, and he nearly had a 20-point comeback win in the fourth quarter in Atlanta.
In the end, Wilson had the best career of the 2012 quarterback draft class.
5. Dan Marino (1983 Dolphins)
Dan Marino was the sixth quarterback drafted in the famed 1983 class that was led by John Elway. But Marino was the best natural passer, and he got the benefit of going to a Miami team that was in the Super Bowl in 1982.
Marino sat on the bench to start the 1983 season, but his first NFL start against Buffalo in Week 6 was basically a preview of the kind of career he’d have in Miami. Marino was brilliant with 322 yards and 3 touchdowns, but his defense allowed Joe Ferguson to throw for 419 yards and 5 touchdowns. Marino was clutch with two fourth-quarter touchdown passes to turn a 28-21 deficit into a 35-28 lead, but the game went to overtime after his defense allowed a tying touchdown on fourth-and-goal.
In overtime, Marino twice set his kicker up for a game-winning field goal, but he missed them both, including a 43-yard kick. The Bills won on a field goal.
But you could see the Dolphins had something special in Marino, who was 7-2 as a starter that year. He threw 20 touchdowns to 6 interceptions with a 96.0 passer rating – numbers unheard of for a rookie in the 20th century.
But in the wild card round against Seattle, Marino’s bad luck in playoff games also showed up immediately in his rookie year. He again was clutch by leading a go-ahead drive for a touchdown in the fourth quarter, but his defense allowed a touchdown, then his special teams twice fumbled the ensuing kickoffs, so he never got the ball back in the first of 10 playoff losses.
Marino rewrote the record books for passing in 1984 in another all-time great season, but his rookie season is also worthy of high praise.
4. Ben Roethlisberger (2004 Steelers)
The Steelers drafted Ben Roethlisberger with the No. 11 pick in the 2004 draft and haven’t had a losing season since. But he wasn’t supposed to be the starter in 2004. Charlie Batch was injured in the preseason, then Tommy Maddox was injured in Baltimore in Week 2, bringing Big Ben off the bench.
He made his first start in a hurricane in Miami, an ugly win. But then the unique combo of size, accuracy, and strength started to show up in his ability to extend plays, and the Steelers kept winning games with him.
But the real tests came after the bye week when the Steelers had to face the 6-0 Patriots, who had won an NFL-record 21 straight games, and they faced the 7-0 Eagles a week later. Roethlisberger came out hot in both games, and the Steelers won both.
He led a clutch game-winning drive in Jacksonville in prime time, he won a shootout against No. 1 pick Eli Manning and the Giants, and he dismantled the Ravens’ defense in his final start of the regular season, finishing with a historic 13-0 record as a starter while also averaging 8.9 yards per attempt and a 98.1 passer rating.
Just based on regular-season success, Roethlisberger might be a spot or two higher on the list. But truth be told, he was running on fumes late in the season and he played worse in his playoff win against the Jets than he did in his first NFL loss against the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game. Two late interceptions by Roethlisberger against the Jets should have doomed Pittsburgh’s 15-1 season, but New York’s kicker missed twice, and the Steelers won in overtime.
Roethlisberger was also more insulated by his top-ranked scoring defense and an offense that led the league in rushing attempts compared to the top three quarterbacks on this list, and I say that as someone who cheered on every snap of his 2004 campaign, as I was just a freshman at the University of Pittsburgh that year. Seeing a legitimate quarterback on this team was a life-changing experience.
But winning your first 14 starts with five comebacks and six game-winning drives is an insane start to a Hall of Fame career.
3. C.J. Stroud (2023 Texans)
C.J. Stroud went after Bryce Young in the 2023 NFL draft, but he left no doubt that season who the best rookie quarterback was. In fact, Stroud had an argument for league MVP in 2023 had he not suffered a concussion against the Jets and missed a couple of games late in the season.
For a Houston team that was so lost after the mess that Deshaun Watson left behind, Stroud was a godsend in 2023. He led the NFL in lowest interception rate (1.0%) and passing yards per game (273.9), a very unusual combo for any quarterback to lead the league in, but even more absurd for a rookie to do that.
Stroud showed he could put a team on his back like when he threw for 470 yards and 5 touchdowns in a win over the Buccaneers, delivering a clutch game-winning drive in the final minute. He also had 356 yards and outdueled Joe Burrow in Cincinnati in the same month.
Stroud’s ability to make his receivers better stood out as Nico Collins had a breakout year in Year 3 of his career. Stroud also helped Houston become the first offense in NFL history to have three different receivers with multiple 140-yard receiving games in the same season, doing so with Collins, Tank Dell, and Noah Brown.
In a must-win game to claim the division title in Week 18 in Indy, Stroud passed for 264 yards and 2 touchdowns. In his first playoff game against Cleveland, he passed for 274 yards and 3 touchdowns, so even with the dud loss in Baltimore, he had the best postseason out of the likes of Ryan, Luck, Marino, and Big Ben as rookies.
2. Dak Prescott (2016 Cowboys)
With Tony Romo still ailing in 2016, the Cowboys turned to a fourth-round rookie named Dak Prescott to be their Week 1 starter. He turned in what I liked to call the best rookie quarterback season in NFL history until I saw someone better it this past year.
But Prescott was excellent in 2016, going 13-3 as a starter with that last loss a game he and the starters left early, so he was basically 13-0 when not playing the Giants, who swept him that year. He threw 23 touchdowns to just 4 interceptions, he completed 67.8% of his passes, he had 282 rushing yards and 6 scores on the ground, and he was No. 3 in QBR (77.6) that year, a strong year with Matt Ryan (79.5) and Tom Brady (79.4) on top.
Prescott was also excellent in the playoffs, leading a 15-point comeback in the fourth quarter against Green Bay while throwing for 302 yards and 3 touchdowns. But Aaron Rodgers got the last score in a 34-31 final, which is still Prescott’s best performance in a playoff loss.
For that matter, Dak put up more points in his first playoff loss (31) than Tom Brady led his offense to in his entire first Super Bowl run in 2001 (29).
In some ways, Dak kind of peaked as a rookie, only reaching some of those heights again in the 2023 season that didn’t end well in the playoffs with that shocking loss to the Packers (again) at home.
But for a fourth-round pick, what he did in 2016 with Jason Garrett as his coach and Cole Beasley as his leading receiver, as he had a better connection with him and an aging Jason Witten than Dez Bryant, it was amazing.
It’s just no longer my No. 1 choice for the top rookie season of all time.
1. Jayden Daniels (2024 Commanders)
Maybe the biggest concern about Jayden Daniels going into his 2024 rookie season was whether he could hold up to the hits from NFL defenders based on his college tape, which often showed him taking comical punishment that people added Looney Tunes sound effects to. He’s not exactly built like Cam Newton.
After he ran the ball 16 times for 88 yards in his NFL debut, a 37-20 loss in Tampa Bay, you had to wonder if this was really sustainable. But then, Daniels had an interesting win against the Giants in Week 2, where he led the team to 7 field goals on 7 drives, something that had never been done before. He seemed to have a knack for long drive engineering.
But then it was a Week 3 game in Cincinnati on a Monday night where Daniels had his coming-out party. He completed 21-of-23 passes (rookie record for completion percentage) for 254 yards and threw a lights-out touchdown pass deep to Terry McLaurin in a 38-33 win.
Before you knew it, Daniels had a streak where he led 16 straight scoring drives (kneeldowns excluded), the longest known streak in NFL history. Then the Hail Mary finish happened against Chicago, and while it was a lucky bounce to get to Noah Brown, Daniels still did an excellent job of making that drive happen to even get to that point after Washington blew the lead.
It also wasn’t a one-off moment as Daniels set a single-season record with four touchdown passes in the final 30 seconds of the fourth quarter or overtime in one season. He was money in finishing off the Falcons on a Sunday night game, then he upped his game in the playoffs too, delivering road upset wins in a postseason where home teams were almost undefeated.
By season’s end, Daniels had numerous records, elevated his teammates in a way few ever have, proved he was a dual threat with over 900 rushing yards, showed off in the clutch, showed out in the playoffs, and maybe if his teammates didn’t lose 3 fumbles in Philly in the NFC Championship Game, he might have reached a Super Bowl in Year 1.
Oh yeah, he also did it with a subpar defense and for a franchise that hadn’t won 11 games in a season since 1991, the longest drought in the NFL.
- Daniels and Patrick Mahomes are the only quarterbacks in NFL history to lead their team to at least 18 points in each of their first 20 starts.
- Daniels led 5 fourth-quarter comebacks as a rookie, tying Roethlisberger and Prescott for the rookie record.
The naysayers can make some valid points. They’ll say the Hail Mary was a fluke, he only beat the Eagles cause Jalen Hurts left early, concussed, Marcus Mariota kept the 18-point streak alive twice, and Daniels struggled for about a month after the rib injury.
But for just a rookie quarterback, he checked almost every box you could ask for to get elite quarterback play. MVP-caliber quarterback play. A true difference maker.
It’s the best rookie quarterback season ever, and I don’t see what argument one could make to pick anyone else but Jayden Daniels.
Is Jayden Daniels the Next Great Quarterback?
When we talk about Patrick Mahomes not having a true rival in this era, we’re talking about his historic combination of team success and stats at the expense of his peers. Josh Allen (Bills) and Lamar Jackson (Ravens) can’t even sniff one Super Bowl because of the presence of Mahomes and the Chiefs in the AFC year after year.
But maybe Daniels can be that guy from the NFC. He’s already reached the NFC Championship Game as a rookie with a bad defense. He has that dual-threat ability that only Lamar Jackson has really tapped into at such a high level in NFL history. He greatly elevated the talent around him last year, and they gave him Deebo Samuel and Laremy Tunsil on offense this year. Throw in a better defense and maybe this team can overtake the Eagles in the NFC East. Daniels is the only quarterback to beat Philly after September.
Look at the top of our list here and what those quarterbacks did in their second seasons:
- Russell Wilson (2013 Seahawks) won the Super Bowl in 2013 and should have won another in 2014 without one of the dumbest play calls in history.
- Dan Marino (1984 Dolphins) had one of the greatest passing seasons ever as the MVP and first 5,000-yard passer with 48 touchdowns, and he lost his only Super Bowl appearance to the 49ers.
- Ben Roethlisberger (2005 Steelers) won three straight road playoff games with great stats and then got help in the Super Bowl to become the youngest winner ever at quarterback.
Between an MVP and Super Bowl, that’s where Daniels wants to ascend to in 2025. The cautionary tales are our top two seasons, where Dak Prescott missed the playoffs in 2017, though some will blame that on the suspension for Ezekiel Elliott.
As for C.J. Stroud, yeah, this sounds like déjà vu if you read our Texans preview last year. Adding a receiver (Stefon Diggs) and pass rusher (Danielle Hunter) was supposed to help Stroud and that team reach the next tier. But due to deficiencies in receiver health, coaching decline (Bobby Slowik), the offensive line, and Stroud himself taking some steps back, the team finished in the same place as a divisional-round loser in Kansas City. His MVP campaign was dead before October.
So, it’s far from a given that Daniels is going to take that next step in 2025. He’s not even favored to win his division because of how well the Eagles are built, but it’s worth pointing out no one has won the NFC East in back-to-back years since the Eagles did it in 2001-04, a shocking streak.
Maybe this can be Washington’s year, and maybe that can help the Chiefs if it means the Eagles are just a wild-card team at best, setting them on a tougher path back to the Super Bowl. Maybe we can get a Mahomes vs. Daniels Super Bowl. They are scheduled to meet for the first time in Week 8 in Kansas City on a Monday night.
Daniels is going to be a popular MVP pick, and the Commanders are a sneaky-good Super Bowl pick with the way the NFC loves sending a new team and the fact that they have a coach (Dan Quinn) who’s been there before. They’ve also retained offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury to keep consistency there.
Again, that sounded great last year, too, when Bobby Slowik didn’t leave Houston. They couldn’t wait to fire him at the end of 2024, because that’s how the NFL changes so much year to year.
But Daniels’ second season should be one of the most highly anticipated in NFL history for a player of his experience level. Bringing this type of expectation and excitement back to the Washington franchise is by itself, an incredible feat that didn’t seem possible for a player to achieve.
Remember, when a rookie quarterback plays well, it usually means a bright future. The names on my list prove that with their career success. But time will tell if Daniels is on track to be up there with the greatest of all time.
But if every career stopped after the first season, Daniels is the GOAT.
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