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NBA Finals Game 6 Picks: Do the Thunder Win Their First Championship or Do the Pacers Have a Miracle Left?

Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar19/06/2025 - 11:41 am
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander #2 of the Oklahoma City Thunder
(Photo by Joshua Gateley/Getty Images)

The 2025 NBA Finals certainly took a major turn in favor of the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 5. They dominated the turnover battle again while getting 40 points from Jalen Williams. Meanwhile, Tyrese Haliburton had a calf injury and didn’t make a field goal, putting Indiana’s longshot odds even longer to pull off the NBA’s all-time upset.

The NBA championship can be decided Thursday night in Game 6 in Indiana where the Pacers are a 6.5-point home underdog, and they are calling Haliburton a “game-time decision” to play with that calf strain.

Given the stakes of the game and the competitive nature of athletes, chances are Haliburton will give it a go Thursday night. But can he really be effective? He wasn’t at all in Game 5.

Before we get into prop picks and possibly the final game pick of this 2024-25 NBA season, let’s look back at the history of Game 6 in the NBA Finals and why things went so poorly for Indiana in Game 5 after it looked like they had the Thunder figured out earlier in this series.

NBA Finals: The History of Game 6s

When you get to Game 6 in a best-of-7 series, that means one team is facing elimination, down 3-2. In the NBA Finals, Game 6 wasn’t always a home game for the team without home-court advantage like in the other three rounds. Starting in 1985, the NBA switched to a 2-3-2 format for the NBA Finals where the team without home court would get the middle three games in a row. Guess those flights back and forth between Boston and Los Angeles were too much for everyone in the 80s.

But that setup always felt a little disadvantageous to the team with home court as they just had to lose one of the first two games at home, and it’s possible they never make it back to their venue for Games 6 and 7. At the same time, it provided some great comeback attempts for the home team who was down 3-2 and had to win those last two games, like the 1988 Lakers against the Pistons.

Interestingly enough, 2013 was the last NBA season where the 2-3-2 format was used for the Finals. It produced quite arguably the best 3-2 comeback ever by the home team when the Heat rallied in Game 6 to win in overtime after Ray Allen made a clutch 3-point shot in regulation. The Heat then won a classic Game 7 against the Spurs, but it’s been back to the standard 2-2-1-1-1 for every NBA Finals since.

The 2025 NBA Finals mark the 50th time a Game 6 was played. I’m sure Thunder fans will be curious to know just how many times a team has clinched the championship on the road in Game 6. Here are the 14 teams to do so with the 2020 bubble (Lakers vs. Heat) excluded:

  • 1963 Celtics at Lakers
  • 1967 76ers at Warriors
  • 1968 Celtics at Lakers
  • 1976 Celtics at Suns
  • 1980 Lakers at 76ers (Magic Johnson’s 42-point game as a rookie)
  • 1981 Celtics at Rockets (Houston was 40-42 in the regular season)
  • 1985 Lakers at Celtics
  • 1993 Bulls at Suns (classic John Paxson 3-point shot)
  • 1998 Bulls at Jazz (Michael Jordan’s famous winning shot vs. Bryon Russell)
  • 2006 Heat at Mavericks
  • 2011 Mavericks at Heat (payback for Dirk Nowitzki)
  • 2015 Warriors at Cavaliers
  • 2019 Raptors at Warriors (the game where Klay Thompson tore his ACL in the third quarter)
  • 2022 Warriors at Celtics

Here are some stats to consider about Game 6s in the Finals:

  • Of the first 49 series, 19 reached a Game 7 (38.8%), and 40 of the teams up 3-2 won the championship (81.6%).
  • In Game 6, the home team is 30-19 (.612).
  • During the 2-3-2 format era (1985-2013), the home team in Game 6, who was technically the home-court team, was 12-6 (.667).
  • From 1948-84, the home team in Game 6 was 16-9 (.640).
  • Since 2014, the home team in Game 6 is just 2-4 (.333).
  • Teams down 3-2 in the NBA Finals have won the series 9-of-49 times (18.4%).
  • The only known series underdogs to come back from a 3-2 deficit to win the NBA Finals are the 1969 Celtics (exact odds unknown vs. Lakers), 1978 Bullets (+120 vs. SuperSonics) and 2016 Cavaliers (+180 vs. Warriors, who led 3-1).

It’s only fitting that the Pacers need an all-time comeback to pull off the NBA’s all-time upset, but I still think the last 14 minutes of Game 4 are what will live in infamy in the minds of Indiana fans if their Pacers don’t recover to win this series. They let a 3-1 lead slip away.

2025 NBA Finals Game 6 Betting Picks

If we review our NBA Game 5 betting picks, I’m not sure anyone saw that scoring dud coming from Haliburton, who obviously was affected by the calf. He still weirdly hit his rebound over, but that was a bad player to bet on in Game 5 as was 3-point makes for Alex Caruso.

However, we’ll gladly take the better than even odds on successful picks like SGA going over in assists (+112), Cason Wallace scooping up steals (+178), and it would have been a fine night if Bennedict Mathurin didn’t once again hand the spread over to the Thunder on the last possession. We needed the Thunder to win by 1-10 points and naturally they won by 11, so the spread has been right on the nose these last few games.

We have six new betting picks for Game 6 where the Thunder are a 6.5-point road favorite with a total of 221.5 points.

1. Tyrese Haliburton: All Unders Opportunity?

Tyrese Haliburton #0 of the Indiana Pacers celebrates during the first quarter against the Oklahoma City Thunder
(Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)

The reports on Haliburton are a calf strain and he’s a game-time decision. I’m looking at the FanDuel props less than 14 hours before tip-off, and you can already see there is real hesitation to offer much on him given the fact he is so questionable and shot 0-for-6 in the last game.

In fact, Haliburton’s scoring line is over/under 13.5 points with juice on the under (-136 at FanDuel). He’s not even an option for the game’s top points scorer, first quarter points, or for any alternate lines on him outside of the player to score 10+ points up through 25+ points (+1200).

There are 15 players listed for rebounds and he’s not one of them, which would be my choice for the easy under as he needs to conserve his legs and shouldn’t be an aggressive rebounder. These markets could pop up closer to game time if reports are optimistic about his availability, but it’s something to monitor Thursday.

But if I could get a bet in on him for this game, I’d take the under in rebounds and preferably under 4.5 if possible. Maybe he’ll want his Willis Reed moment and will have a classic 25 points/12 assists/0 turnover game, but it just doesn’t look feasible at all after how he played in Game 5.

But he would put it to the test that he’s the ultimate hot-and-cold player if he balls out in this one. Let’s just make sure he’s active first.

NBA Pick: Tyrese Haliburton Under 4.5 Rebounds (odds TBD)

2. T.J. McConnell: Next Man Up?

If Haliburton’s calf is this compromised that his line is down to 13.5 points, then T.J. McConnell needs to play more in Game 6. He’s had a good series and he was incredible in sparking the team’s comeback in Game 5 with 18 points off the bench and most of that in the third quarter.

But coach Rick Carlisle ended up pulling McConnell not even a minute into the fourth quarter after a travel call, and he didn’t come back until 3:30 remained and the Pacers were down 14 points. Maybe he was tired, but they maybe should have kept riding the hot hand as they were getting nothing out of Haliburton.

When McConnell plays over 20.5 minutes this season, he’s scored in double figures in 19-of-22 games (add 3-for-3 in the playoffs too). This usually happens on the road, but this is the end for the Pacers if they don’t win this game.

I’m not going to go nuts and pick McConnell to score 20 points or anything, but over 10.5 points sounds good to me. It’s better than trying to trust Haliburton and Bennedict Mathurin to score in this series as they’ve been so frustrating.

NBA Pick: T.J. McConnell Over 10.5 Points (-112) at FanDuel

3. Jalen Williams: The New Scottie Pippen? More Like 2000 Kobe Bryant

Jalen Williams struggled shooting in the first two games at home this series, but he’s picked things up starting in Game 3 in Indy, and he’s scored 26, 27, and 40 points in the last three games. He was incredible in Game 5, and even if some of those shots are unlikely to fall again on the road, he already showed the previous two games that he can be a big-time scorer even while playing with the MVP and scoring leader in the league.

It’s funny because people often compare Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to Kobe Bryant for his scoring prowess and mid-range shots. Meanwhile, Williams is getting the Scottie Pippen comparisons now that he’s looking like the “Robin” to help out Batman in OKC.

However, it’s looking more like when a young Kobe Bryant had a nice series against the 2000 Pacers in the NBA Finals to help Shaquille O’Neal win his first ring in what became the NBA’s last three-peat for the Lakers.

If Williams is dropping 40 points efficiently on top of what SGA is doing and what this team does to force turnovers, the dynasty talk isn’t that premature. They nailed this draft pick, and I think Williams goes over 23.5 points in this one too to keep his streak going.

Still waiting for those 2 steals though.

NBA Pick: Jalen Williams Over 23.5 Points (-108) at FanDuel

4. Myles Turner: His Last Game for the Pacers?

Myles Turner has spent all 10 of his NBA seasons with the Pacers, but this could be his last game with them as he is a free agent this summer. Maybe he comes back, and maybe he tests the waters as a 3-point shooting big man who is still young enough to be a full-time contributor somewhere.

Turner’s deep shot has struggled in this series as he’s just 1-of-8 over the last two games. But I think with this possibly being the last game he plays in a Pacers uniform, and certainly the last at home this season, he’ll be focused and make a few from 3 to help his team.

NBA Pick: Myles Turner 2+ Made Threes (+102) at FanDuel

5. Who Gets the Steals in Game 6 of the NBA Finals?

The steals betting market has been a lot of fun this series with so many players posting huge numbers in the five games. But one player who really struggled in turning the ball over in Game 5 was Indiana’s Andrew Nembhard, who had several back-breaking turnovers when the team was trying to mount a comeback.

But I think he’ll redeem himself and get more aggressive himself on defense and steal a couple of passes, something he’s done twice in this series already. The odds are too good to pass up.

NBA Pick: Andrew Nembhard to Record 2+ Steals (+205) at FanDuel

6. Who Wins Game 6 of the NBA Finals?

For the record, my series pick from the start was Thunder in six games (+410), so that’s on the table here. I also thought Pascal Siakam had the best Finals MVP odds at +2000, and he’s +1400 to win it now behind SGA (-650) and Jalen Williams (+700). Haliburton (+9000) basically has no shot now. If the Pacers somehow win these last two games, I think Siakam takes it unless Haliburton does something superhuman like 35 points in OKC.

I still think SGA wins the Finals MVP, but there is one scenario where maybe Williams can leapfrog him. That’d have to be a bad game from SGA in Game 6, then a quiet game in Game 7 while Williams is the star again much like he was in Game 5. That’s the one scenario that makes sense, but it’s likely going to SGA.

But in a normal situation, I’d be all over the Indiana moneyline (+205) for Game 6 to extend this to a Game 7 in OKC on Sunday night. However, the run that Williams is on, and the way SGA can basically do anything he wants on the court (legally or not), it’s hard to see the Pacers winning another game with Haliburton simply not being healthy enough to do what he needs to do and that’s attack and play aggressive basketball.

So, while it’d be great to see this go to a Game 7, I think the season ends Thursday night in Indiana, and the Thunder win a low-scoring game thanks to their defensive mastery, a fitting way to end the season.

Still, I can’t stop myself from picking something basic like Thunders -6.5, so I’m going to go with the combo pick of Thunder ML and the under. An all-time NBA upset would have been spectacular, and the Pacers have provided so many great moments this year. But the inevitability of the Thunder takes over here, and they win their first NBA championship.

NBA 2-Leg Pick: Thunder ML & Under 221.5 Points (+146) at FanDuel

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Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar19/06/2025 - 11:41 am