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NFL Player Awards Trends: A Guide to MVP and Offensive and Defensive Players of the Year

Scott Kacsmar19/07/2024 - 12:22 pm

The NFL is close to opening training camps for the 2024 season, but futures betting at top-rated sportsbooks has already been going on for months. Some of the most popular futures bets are on individual player awards such as MVP, Offensive and Defensive Player of the Year, and Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year.

Even seasoned NFL experts will tell you predicting these award winners before the season is very hard. That’s why the odds-on favorites are usually +400 or longer this time of year. While it can be fun and lucrative to make parlays in the summer on these award winners, it is usually difficult to get one award correct, let alone three or four.

Even if you expected Chrisitan McCaffrey was going to explode in his first full season in Kyle Shanahan’s offense, Houston’s Will Anderson Jr. would prove why he was the top rookie in the 2023 class, and that Myles Garrett was the next in line to win Defensive Player of the Year, did you put all of that foresight on the same ticket? It would have had about +60000 odds before Week 1.

Then if you had some of those picks, did you get it right that Lamar Jackson would leapfrog about five quarterbacks in December to win his second MVP, or that C.J. Stroud would be the top rookie after not going No. 1 to Carolina?

Things always make more sense with hindsight, but what betting trends can we learn from winners of past player awards to make better predictions for 2024? That’s what we’re going to look at today.

This is not the place to post final award predictions for the 2024 season. That will come down the road. In this piece, we are looking at trends and getting you to start thinking about the roles these players may play in 2024 and how that could launch them towards winning an award.

Finally, we are leaving out the Comeback Player of the Year award, which has a rocky history with what people value when voting for it. Last year, I could have given you great reasons to fade Damar Hamlin as the heavy preseason favorite for the award. But there might not have been a soul on Earth who could have predicted Joe Flacco would win it as a member of the Browns. He wasn’t even on an NFL roster until late November.

Most Valuable Player (MVP)

The most prestigious award is the MVP, but the most important thing to note is that it’s become almost exclusively an award for a quarterback with great stats on a great team:

Since 2007, 16 of the 17 MVP winners were quarterbacks as only running back Adrian Peterson (2012 Vikings) was able to win the award as a non-quarterback. He won it because six people chose to vote for him instead of runner-up Peyton Manning, who lost the vote 30.5 to 19.5.
Fade the quarterbacks who barely get to a winning record like 9-8 as 31 of the last 36 quarterbacks to win MVP (86.1%) did so for a team that won at least 12 games.
Of the quarterbacks to win MVP since 1978, 75% of them played for a No. 1 seed that year.
The only quarterbacks to win the MVP on a wild card team were Steve McNair (2003 Titans) and Peyton Manning (2008 Colts), and McNair was a co-MVP with Manning in that 2003 season.
No rookie quarterback has won MVP since the Associated Press started voting on the award in 1957.
Repeat winners have been popular as 10 of the last 15 quarterbacks to win MVP already had won the award before going into that season.
The last four MVP winners (Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, and Aaron Rodgers twice) were all previous winners, making it the longest streak in NFL history without a first-time MVP winner.

We haven’t seen a new player win their first MVP since Jackson’s first win in 2019. That was the second year in a row that a quarterback won the award in his first full season as a starter after Mahomes did it in 2018 for the Chiefs.

This is why it feels like a good bet that someone will win their first MVP this year even if Mahomes (+500 at FanDuel) is the current favorite to win his third MVP.

Could that be Josh Allen (+800), the quarterback I ranked No. 2 in the league behind only Mahomes? You might say that’s preposterous after he lost No. 1 receiver Stefon Diggs in a trade to Houston, but let’s not forget Mahomes lost Tyreek Hill in a trade to Miami in 2022 and still won MVP that year. Maybe Allen can embrace the change, play at a high level, and doing this with a younger, rawer cast will be a big part of his MVP case.

Someone you probably should wait until 2025 to bet on is Justin Herbert (+2000), who might need a second year to get to MVP level under new coaches Jim Harbaugh and coordinator Greg Roman. By 2025, Herbert will be in an offense where the best new players (tackle Joe Alt and wide receiver Ladd McConkey) are no longer rookies.

One thing we know is the preseason MVP favorite has only won 3-of-15 MVP awards (20%) since 2009. Peyton Manning did it twice with the 2009 Colts and 2013 Broncos, and Tom Brady was the last to do it for the 2017 Patriots.

So, fading the preseason favorite is usually a good call. There also have been some surprise winners in the last decade, including Cam Newton after he had his worst season with the Panthers in 2014, Matt Ryan after a forgettable 2015 with the Falcons, and not many people expected a return of prime Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay in 2020. Those were the last three veterans to win MVP with preseason odds of +3000 or longer.

Something Ryan and Rodgers had in common in those years was it being the second season in a new offensive system under Kyle Shanahan and Matt LaFleur. That could be another reason to think 2024 could be a huge year for Jordan Love (+1400) and C.J. Stroud (+1000) after they already looked so good in their first season as starters in 2023. Love has LaFleur’s offense and Stroud is keeping his offensive coordinator, Bobby Slowik, who is a Shanahan disciple.

Again, we’re thinking about roles, and star quarterback taking off to MVP heights in Year 2 as a starter might be the path to play this year. Think Dan Marino in 1984 – just not as prolific and record setting.

Stroud in particular is an interesting case since he already led the NFL in passing yards per game and lowest interception rate as a rookie. Now he might have the deepest set of weapons in the league, clear room for improvement over last year, and don’t forget the impact of the schedule.

You could argue late-season games in prime time have decided two of the last three MVP awards with Tom Brady (2021) and Brock Purdy (2023) flopping in front of the nation in December. Jackson did not have traditional numbers for an MVP last year, but he was the last man standing after Purdy threw four picks on Christmas night.

Check the 2024 schedule, and Stroud gets to play the Chiefs in a Week 16 island game on a Saturday afternoon, then he’s in action on Christmas at home against the Ravens. Those games could decide home-field advantage and ultimately the MVP award this year. So, don’t forget the schedule’s impact on this award.

So, we’re thinking about a first-time MVP winner, someone on a quality team with weapons, and who is ready to take the next step to challenge for a No. 1 seed this year. That’s the logical pick for MVP in 2024.

Offensive Player of the Year (OPOY)

The Offensive Player of the Year award has taken some turns throughout history. It used to be a reliable predictor of MVP as 11 of the first 14 OPOY winners also doubled up with MVP that season. It also used to largely go to running backs or quarterbacks, but recent history has favored prolific wide receivers or backs who win the yardage title at their position. No tight end or offensive lineman has ever won the award.

In many ways, OPOY has become a consolation prize for the most productive wide receiver or running back.

Patrick Mahomes in 2018 is the last quarterback to win OPOY, doubling up with his MVP after he threw 50 touchdowns in his first season as a starter.
Even when Lamar Jackson unanimously won MVP in 2019 by leading the league in touchdown passes and rushing for a quarterback record 1,206 yards, he still lost OPOY to Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas, who set an NFL record with 149 catches.
Of the 52 players to win OPOY, 38 of them led the NFL in at least one of the following stats: Passing yards, rushing yards, receiving yards, or yards from scrimmage.
Being on a team that wins a lot of games is not that important like it is for MVP, but the offense also better be a unit that scores a lot.

These days, you have to think non-quarterback first for this one. The sportsbooks agree as you’ll find 14 players with better odds than +5000 for OPOY and none of them are quarterbacks.

Think about someone who could win the rushing title, which could be Derrick Henry (+3500 at FanDuel) in Baltimore after the big move to get him this offseason. They lost some of the depth in the backfield, and Henry could thrive in a rush-based offense with Jackson’s dual-threat ability. That actually feels like a better pick than Christian McCaffrey (+900) repeating as OPOY, because what more can CMC do in that offense after he just led the league in rushing, yards from scrimmage, and touchdowns?

If a certain wideout we’ll discuss next wasn’t so great in 2021, Colts running back Jonathan Taylor likely wins OPOY that year. Imagine if he stays healthy and so does Anthony Richardson for coach Shane Steichen this year. The Colts did a lot of nice things offensively with backups last year. A healthy duo of Taylor and Richardson could be like a younger version of Jackson and Henry in Baltimore. There’s some upside to picking him at +3500 odds for OPOY.

A receiver who leads the league in receiving yards is another way to go about it. Few likely had Cooper Kupp doing that in 2021 when he won the receiving triple crown for the Rams. He was +8500 to win OPOY in the preseason, so that’s a miracle if you picked him before Week 1. Sure, getting Matthew Stafford at quarterback was an upgrade, but no one thought Kupp was going to be that good.

Stafford’s unique ability to repeatedly find the same receiver to record-setting volume is also why Puka Nacua (+3500) might be a great sleeper pick for OPOY in 2024. Nacua set rookie receiving records with 105 catches and 1,486 yards. With Kupp’s injury history, he might fully take over as the WR1 for the Rams.

Miami wideout Tyreek Hill (+800) is the odds-on favorite right now, but he basically had the same season two years in a row with Miami. More touchdowns last year as the Dolphins took advantage of bad defenses, but a late injury cost him a real shot at the first 2,000-yard receiving season. Not sure how much better he could take things in that offense, which really needs to start developing a third receiver to go with Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

Ja’Marr Chase (+1000) could be an option when you consider the offense lost Tyler Boyd, so maybe he’ll make up for some of the slack with his biggest season yet. Joe Burrow needs to stay healthy for that to happen as they have that great connection going back to college.

But this one is a tough call every year now. Probably the wisest move is to keep OPOY out of your favorite award parlays.

Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY)

With the Defensive Player of the Year, we finally find an award where voters are fairly predictable. Being on a great defense (and winning team) matters so much for this award:

Since 1988, 33-of-36 DPOY winners (91.7%) played on a team that finished with a winning record.
From 2002-2011, the award almost always went to someone on a consistently strong defense like the Buccaneers (Derrick Brooks), Bears (Brian Urlacher), Dolphins (Jason Taylor), Steelers (James Harrison and Troy Polamalu), or Ravens (Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, and Terrell Suggs).
In 2012-2020, J.J. Watt and Aaron Donald won DPOY three times each.
Carolina linebacker Luke Kuechly (2013 winner) was one of the few players able to break up the Watt and Donald runs, and he won it as the reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year while Watt’s team had a down year and a year before Donald was drafted.

Since Donald last won in 2020, the new era of edge rushers has competed annually for the award. T.J. Watt (Steelers) won it in 2021, Nick Bosa (49ers) won it in 2022, and last year it was Myles Garrett’s turn in Cleveland even if you could argue Watt should have claimed another for the family name.

But do you know who has been a favorite for this award the last couple of years and fell off late in the season in the odds? Micah Parsons in Dallas. He is the favorite again this year (+500 at FanDuel) and has a new defensive coordinator (Mike Zimmer) who should have no problem using him properly. This might be the year for Parsons, who was the 2021 Defensive Rookie of the Year.

Historically, edge rushers have the advantage at winning this award as a high sack total is an attractive stat to voters. But there have been a couple of defensive backs who won the award following hype from a strong Super Bowl-winning postseason. Safety Bob Sanders did it for the Colts in 2007 and corner Stephon Gilmore did it for the Patriots in 2019.

In fact, Gilmore’s DPOY win in 2019 is the big outlier in the last decade given he had +8000 odds before the season, which ranked behind at least 30 players. Gilmore is also the only defensive back to win DPOY since 2011.

Since 2014, 9-of-10 DPOY winners had +1400 odds or better before the season, and all nine ranked in the top five in odds.

It really doesn’t pay to go away from the chalk on this award. Granted, the odds-on favorite in the preseason has only won 2-of-10 awards in the last decade, but you shouldn’t really stray far from the top five of Parsons, Watt, Garrett, Bosa, or Maxx Crosby on a Vegas team that is looking to be led by defense under coach Antonio Pierce.

If you wanted to get creative, then maybe Chris Jones (+2500) has his most dominant year to help the Chiefs get to a three-peat, or Danielle Hunter (+3200) does his job as a hired hand in Houston with a huge season to help the Texans become the new threat in the AFC.

My gut is still leaning with Parsons to finish the job and win his first DPOY award.

Offensive Rookie of the Year (OROY)

Of all the awards this year, the one with the biggest favorite is Offensive Rookie of the Year. Chicago quarterback Caleb Williams is +140 at FanDuel, easily outpacing Washington quarterback Jayden Daniels (+650) and top wideout Marvin Harrison Jr. (+750) from Arizona.

We covered earlier this offseason why Williams is walking into the best situation of any quarterback drafted No. 1 overall. But trusting a Chicago quarterback to do something great is still a tough pill to swallow, and historically, quarterbacks drafted first do not do that well at winning this award:

From 1967-2003, Dennis Shaw (1970 Bills) was the only quarterback to win OROY.
Since Ben Roethlisberger’s monumental win in 2004, quarterbacks have won 10 of the last 20 OROY awards.
However, only 5-of-10 quarterbacks who won were the first quarterback drafted in their class (Vince Young, Matt Ryan, Sam Bradford, Cam Newton, and Kyler Murray).
The preseason favorite has won OROY in 3-of-15 seasons (20%) since 2009, including Cam Newton (+400 in 2011), Saquon Barkley (+155 in 2018), and Kyler Murray (+150 in 2019).
No tight end or offensive lineman has ever won OROY.

Since COVID (2020), no one has won OROY while ranking higher than No. 5 in the preseason odds:

Justin Herbert (+3000 in 2020) was the third quarterback drafted in his class, was not a Week 1 starter, but he took over for the Chargers in Week 2 after the team’s medical stuff punctured Tyrod Taylor’s lung. He threw a rookie record 31 touchdown passes.
While Ja’Marr Chase (+1800 in 2021) was the first wideout drafted in his class, he was stuck behind a draft that had five quarterbacks go in the top 15 picks. But his chemistry with Burrow from college led to his OROY win.
Garrett Wilson (+2000 in 2022) was the second wideout drafted in 2022, and he was stuck in a bad quarterback situation with the Jets. However, his production despite his situation helped him win the award in a year where the quarterback class was weak.
C.J. Stroud (+850 in 2023) was QB2 in his draft, but expectations were just not that high for a bad Houston team. His ability to lead them to the playoffs and produce big-time stats for a rookie made him the right choice over what was an incredible job by wideout Puka Nacua as a fifth-round pick, which would have won the award most other seasons.

So, going with the chalky top quarterback hasn’t worked out that great. Even Andrew Luck (2012) and Trevor Lawrence (2021) failed to win this award, and they were arguably more hyped prospects than Williams.

But like we said, Williams is going to a strong situation with a great wide receiver trio. His odds (+140) would also be the best we have seen for the OROY favorite in a long time.

If you were going to get creative, you could think about Ladd McConkey (+3000) if he takes over as Herbert’s No. 1 receiver after the team let go of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. That’s a sneaky good pick and wouldn’t be the biggest longshot in recent years. Alvin Kamara was +5000 in 2017 as the fifth running back drafted. He had 24 players ahead of him for OROY odds before the season, so you never know.

Sometimes, predicting this is close to impossible. Anquan Boldin wasn’t even the first wide receiver the Cardinals drafted in 2003 (Bryant Johnson was), but the second-round pick quickly established his dominance with 217 yards and 2 touchdowns in Week 1. If someone like McConkey went off in Week 1 like Nacua did last year, you might want to quickly get a bet in on him and hope no quarterback catches up like Stroud did in 2023.

But of all the player awards this year, OROY is probably the one where the favorite is the most likely to win. The odds alone back that up.

Defensive Rookie of the Year (DROY)

Similar to DPOY, we see some stronger, more predictable trends and outcomes with Defensive Rookie of the Year winners.

But this 2024 class will be interesting since it was largely dissed in the draft by the league when no team took a defender until the Colts finally broke the record streak with the 15th pick when they selected Laiatu Latu. He is tied with Dallas Turner (Vikings), who many thought was going No. 8 to Atlanta, for the highest odds (+450 at FanDuel) to win DROY.

But check these facts first since draft status is a huge factor in DROY:

Of the 58 DROY winners since 1967, 81% were first-round picks, 79.3% were top 20 picks, and everyone since 1989 has been a top 40 pick.
A total of 47 winners played in the front seven while only 11 were defensive backs, including just two safeties since 1967.
You can classify 26 of the winners as edge rushers (defensive end or outside linebacker), so they again have the literal edge at winning this award.

So, if you think your fourth-round safety has a chance to shock the world, chances are he doesn’t. Think high picks and think edge rushers. In this class, that doesn’t leave a ton of options since a record 23 offensive players went in the first round.

We mentioned above that the odds-on favorite in the preseason for these awards rarely ever wins the award in the end. That is not the case for DROY:

Six of the last 14 DROY winners we have preseason odds for were the favorite going into the season.
We do not have odds for 2016, though with winner Joey Bosa being the first defender drafted, there’s a good chance he was the odds-on favorite to win DROY, which would make it 7-of-15 winners since 2009 being straight chalk.
The preseason favorite has won in 3-of-4 seasons with Will Anderson Jr. (2023 Texans), Micah Parsons (2021 Cowboys), and Chase Young (2020 Football Team) winning the award.
Since 2010, 8-of-14 winners were the first defender in the front seven drafted in their class.
Since 2010,11-of-14 winners were the first defender drafted at their position, including six edge rushers, three defensive tackles, one inside linebacker (Luke Kuechly), and one corner (Marshon Lattimore).

Of the 22 winners since 2002, the only second-round picks were inside linebackers (DeMeco Ryans on the 2006 Texans and Shaquille Leonard on the 2018 Colts). Everyone else was a first-round pick. You pretty much had no shot at getting the 2006 pick right as everyone was on Mario Williams, the No. 1 pick and top edge rusher that the Texans took. Few imagined it would be the linebacker they took to start the second round, Ryans, who is now their head coach. As for Leonard, he was a longshot with over +3000 odds in 2018, but that wasn’t a strong defensive draft, led by Bradley Chubb and Denzel Ward.

Unlike DPOY, you really don’t need to play for a winning team or great defense to win DROY. It couldn’t hurt though as the Texans’ turnaround last year helped Anderson while his competition, Jalen Carter, was viewed as the guy who disappointed down the stretch on a Philadelphia team that collapsed with terrible defensive play.

For the 2024 race, someone like Seattle’s Byron Murphy (+1400 at FanDuel) could be a value pick as the top defensive tackle in the draft. If new coach Mike Macdonald can turn around that Seattle defense in Year 1 with Murphy being a big part of that, maybe that’s a DROY winner.

Latu (+430) is the first edge rusher and was productive in college at UCLA with sacks. The Colts need that kind of player to produce consistent pressure, and that could be a good call for him to win DROY.

Turner (+430) has to replace the loss of Danielle Hunter in Minnesota, and that team is not expected to be great in 2024. But he was considered the best edge rusher prospect in the draft before sliding to the Vikings.

We know the corners were disrespected as no one took one until the Eagles used the No. 22 pick on Quinyon Mitchell (+1200), who was the top-ranked corner prospect by many experts. Might be a tough award to win in Philadelphia where Darius Slay is still the top corner.

Conclusion: Mix Up Some Roles

At the end of the day, you have to take some chances on these awards. Things are not going to play out as you expect, and most favorites are not going to clean up.

Remember, most of these award races are competitive for months as few players ever truly run away with them from September to the end of the season.

You could have placed bets on Lamar Jackson for MVP at +2000 last October, better odds than he had before the season (+1400). There were also weeks where Tyreek Hill was the favorite for OPOY over McCaffrey, and Will Anderson didn’t pull out DROY over Carter until late in the year too. Even Micah Parsons was better than even money for DPOY in December before Garrett came back to win it.

You’ll want to keep an eye on the races and make hedges where necessary during the season. With this, we were giving you ideas for your early bets before the season starts.

Things can change quickly. I liked Aaron Rodgers for MVP last year and his season lasted four snaps before he tore his Achilles. If I was making a Round Robin parlay today for award winners, my choices would probably look something like this:

MVP – C.J. Stroud: Great chance to build on a record-breaking rookie season with a deep receiving corps that could be the best in the NFL, and he has his coordinator back along with a schedule that will feature him in the biggest games in December in front of national audiences.
Offensive Player of the Year – Ja’Marr Chase: Joe Burrow says he wants to give fans something to talk about this season, but my gut says it results in Chase leading the league in receiving yards for the first time with double-digit touchdowns.
Defensive Player of the Year – Micah Parsons: He finally puts together a complete season with a career high in sacks and the Cowboys don’t fold in every high-profile game, which hurts the perception for their players each year.
Offensive Rookie of the Year – Caleb Williams: The No. 1 pick gets it done with the most promising season by a Chicago quarterback in a long time.
Defensive Rookie of the Year – Byron Murphy: Couldn’t go chalk again and wanted to mix it up with some love for the top defensive tackle in the class as coach Macdonald tries to turn him into his Justin Madubuike (13 sacks last year for Ravens) right away. Seattle’s new Cortez Kennedy.

That’s just my view today. Ask me in a month and I might give you a ballot that looks like Jordan Love for MVP, CeeDee Lamb for OPOY, Maxx Crosby for DPOY, Jayden Daniels for OROY, and Laiatu Latu for DROY.

Whatever you do, think about the role the player will play this year, and what the narrative is to build their case. You can get creative, but let’s not get insane.

Sam Darnold, if he even wins the job over rookie J.J. McCarthy, isn’t going to win MVP in Minnesota when he’s never put together a decent season in the NFL. Daniel Jones isn’t likely going to win Offensive Player of the Year in his sixth season after tearing his ACL just because his job should be on the line in New York. I’m also not going to bet on Atlanta’s Michael Penix Jr. to win OROY because I’d have to expect Kirk Cousins to get injured in September.

But things can always change. At this time in 2016, no one had expectations for rookie quarterback Dak Prescott in Dallas. He was a fourth-round pick, and the eighth quarterback drafted that year. But a preseason injury to Tony Romo opened the door for Prescott to start the season, and he had +900 odds for OROY that were the third highest going into Week 1. At that point, you just had to figure out if he had more value than his running back, Ezekiel Elliott, who was the overwhelming favorite with -140 odds.

A quarterback in a good offense who looked capable in the preseason with +900 odds? If only the choice was that easy this year when five rookie quarterbacks could be starting in September.

But we’ll figure it all out, eventually, and hopefully before the award winner is so obvious his odds are -2000.

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