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NFL Super Bowl LIX Preview: Kansas City Three-Peat or Philly Special 2.0?
> Andy ReidChiefsNFL
> Andy ReidChiefsNFL
The NFL has a historic Super Bowl rematch in New Orleans this Sunday between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles. The Chiefs can elevate their dynasty status with the first Super Bowl three-peat, and the Eagles can win their second championship in the last decade by denying another dynasty on the biggest stage at Super Bowl LIX.
We have been preparing for Super Bowl LIX all week with an ultimate guide for the game, a look at why the Fraud Alert Rating metric favors the Chiefs, Saquon Barkley’s quest to win Super Bowl MVP on his birthday, and why the Chiefs are the best NFL dynasty if they pull this one off.
But now is the time to put everything together for our in-depth preview of this incredible matchup.
Table of Contents
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles (+1.5, O/U 48.5)
The No. 1 Kansas City Chiefs (17-2) will take on the No. 2 Philadelphia Eagles (17-3) this Sunday evening in New Orleans in the Caesars Superdome. Kansas City’s starters have lost one game all season and the Eagles have lost one game since October.
The Chiefs have been fluctuating between a 1.5-point and 1-point favorite, making this one of the smallest spreads in Super Bowl history. As we looked at earlier this week, maybe the best predictor for playoff games with a small spread (0-2 points) is to pick the team who ranks lower in Fraud Alert Rating, my metric that has the Chiefs ranked significantly lower (17th) this season than the Eagles, who were No. 2.
Chiefs vs. Eagles: The Past Matchups
Another reason this is such a historic Super Bowl is because the Chiefs and Eagles are meeting for the fourth season in a row, something no other pair of AFC and NFC teams have done since the 1970 merger. Non-conference foes usually play each other once every four years, but these teams have some actual history against one another with the same head coaches and starting quarterbacks in each game:
- 2021, Week 4: Chiefs 42, Eagles 30
- 2022, Super Bowl LVII: Chiefs 38, Eagles 35
- 2023, Week 11: Eagles 21, Chiefs 17
If those scores were a pattern, then it suggests the Eagles are winning Sunday by double digits. But all of these games were within one score in the fourth quarter, even including the first matchup. The Eagles made it 28-23 before Patrick Mahomes threw another touchdown to Tyreek Hill.
Then in the Super Bowl two years ago without Hill, the Eagles (with the addition of A.J. Brown) blew a 24-14 lead as the Chiefs stormed back in the second half. Philadelphia finished with 35 points, the most ever by a losing team in the Super Bowl.
When the teams met last season in November on a Monday night, it was unique that both teams had a bye week (like the Super Bowl schedule) before the game. Mahomes is 14-2 in games played after a bye, but he has lost a Super Bowl (2020 Buccaneers) and the Chiefs lost that game to Philadelphia after blowing a fourth-quarter lead. Travis Kelce fumbled in the red zone, then Marquez Valdes-Scantling had this horrific drop of a go-ahead touchdown in the final two minutes before the Eagles won 21-17.
Neither quarterback brought their best stuff that night, but it was rainy and sloppy. You should expect sharper offense in the dome this Sunday.
Injury Watch
As far as Super Bowls go, this should be one of the healthiest matchups in history. Patrick Mahomes (ankle) and Jalen Hurts (knee) showed on Championship Sunday that their late-season leg injuries are no big deal as both looked mobile in those victories.
The Chiefs come in with plenty of rest in recent weeks after most starters went 24 days between Christmas and the postseason, and now they’ve had the extra week to get ready for this one.
The Eagles are expected to get edge rusher Brandon Graham back after he suffered a triceps injury in Week 12. The 36-year-old hero from Super Bowl LII has announced this is the last game of his NFL career. He’s not the same threat he used to be, but his veteran leadership could be a boost to his teammates who’d like to see him go out on top.
Eagles’ star defensive tackle Jalen Carter has an illness as reported Wednesday, but he should be fine by Sunday. The Eagles also had some injury concerns along the offensive line with guard Landon Dickerson and center Cam Jurgens, two Pro Bowlers, but both are expected to be good to go in the Super Bowl.
Key Matchup: Patrick Mahomes vs. Vic Fangio’s Defense
How do you beat a quarterback who wins over 80% of his games like Patrick Mahomes? He is 106-26 (.803) as a starter, he’s 16-0 indoors, he’s 17-3 in the playoffs, and he’s 3-1 in the Super Bowl even though he trailed by double digits in each of those games.
One person who hasn’t figured it out yet is Vic Fangio, the Philadelphia defensive coordinator who has immediately improved this unit into a top-ranked defense that allowed the fewest yards, first downs, and second-fewest points, and is No. 1 in pass defense this year.
Bu Fangio is 0-8 against Mahomes with most of those losses accumulated in 2019-21 when he was the coach of the Broncos. He didn’t have an offense then, he does now, and he did a respectable job at keeping the score down against Mahomes (usually). He also was swept by him last year with Miami, though the first game was a dud played in Germany and the second was one of the coldest games in playoff history.
This is Fangio’s best chance yet to get a win over Mahomes and win his first Super Bowl. He was shredded by Joe Flacco and the 2012 Ravens in his only other appearance as defensive coordinator of the 49ers over a decade ago. Fangio was also a consultant for the 2022 Eagles, who lost to the Chiefs in Super Bowl 57.
But if you want the secret sauce to beating Mahomes, it has to involve making him hold the ball longer than he wants to. Minimize your blitzes, mix up your coverages, and make him move around instead of getting rid of the ball quickly. The numbers for average time to throw from NFL Pro (Next Gen Stats) do not lie on this.
- In 26 losses, Mahomes’ average time to throw is 3.09 seconds.
- In 106 wins, Mahomes’ average time to throw is 2.82 seconds.
- Mahomes held the ball for at least 2.80 seconds in 24 of his 26 career losses, for at least 2.90 seconds in 20 losses, and for over 3.0 seconds in 15 of his losses.
- Mahomes is 25-2 when teams blitz him 12 or more times (source: Pro Football Reference).
The turning point for this was the 2020 and 2021 seasons. Everyone knows the 2020 Buccaneers stymied the Chiefs’ big-play offense in the Super Bowl by playing two-high safety shells and rarely blitzing. Mahomes, behind a broken offensive line, ran around for nearly 500 yards behind the line of scrimmage that night (average time to throw was 3.47 seconds) before not scoring a single touchdown.
But did you know the Raiders produced a similar result earlier that season in a 40-32 win? Mahomes’ average time to throw in that game was a career-high 3.71 seconds. The Raiders pressured him 21 times despite three blitz calls.
Then in the 2021 AFC Championship Game, the Bengals confused Mahomes with three-man rushes to force him into the worst half of his career in the team’s last playoff defeat. After that game, the Chiefs traded Tyreek Hill and have transitioned into a far more methodical approach with short passes replacing a lot of the big plays down the field, so this is an offense that Fangio didn’t see much of when he coached at Denver.
It’s clearly worked for the Chiefs given they are one win away from a three-peat. But it’s also more true than ever that you need him to hold the ball longer to beat him. The receivers are not as young or speedy these days, so when the Chiefs play backyard football with Mahomes scrambling around, it’s harder for them to produce big plays that way. You take your chances with getting a coverage sack or forcing a turnover if he’s holding it longer.
In 10 of Mahomes’ last 12 losses going back to the 2021 Bengals, he held the ball for over 3.0 seconds:
- He held it for 3.28 seconds in an opening-night loss to the 2023 Lions in a game without Kelce available and the Chiefs were still trying to make Kadarius Toney work.
- He held it for 3.43 seconds in Denver in 2023 when he had the flu and the Chiefs lost 24-9, a rare division loss.
- He held it for 3.40 seconds on Christmas Day 2023 in the 20-14 loss against the Raiders where he had two turnovers returned for touchdowns, the team’s last home loss.
- He held it for a season-high 3.35 seconds in Buffalo this year, his only loss.
You have to throw off his timing and frustrate him because if he’s playing in rhythm, your chances are minuscule at best:
- Mahomes is just 19-15 (.559) when his average time to throw is above 3.0 seconds.
- Mahomes is 87-11 (.888) when his average time to throw is under 3.0 seconds.
- Mahomes is 45-2 (.957) when his average time to throw is under 2.8 seconds.
That 45-2 is pretty daunting, and to me, this is the game. Can Fangio get that number over 3.0 seconds for the Eagles? Based on the trends, it doesn’t look optimistic:
- Mahomes has been under 2.85 seconds in 6-of-8 career meetings against Fangio defenses, and he still shredded him for 610 yards and 4 touchdowns over the two games he was above 3.0 seconds.
- Quarterbacks are getting the ball out in 2.59 seconds against the Eagles (playoffs included), the sixth-fastest time in 2024.
- The Eagles have only forced two quarterbacks to get the ball out in over 3.0 seconds: Lamar Jackson (3.30 seconds) and Bryce Young (3.19 seconds).
- Baker Mayfield (Buccaneers) got the ball out in a season-low 2.22 seconds against the Eagles, and it was their worst game of the year as he shredded them for 347 yards in a 33-16 rout that was over early.
- The kicker: Mahomes has had four of his five fastest release times in the last month of the season: 2.50 seconds against Houston, 2.34 seconds against Pittsburgh, 2.62 seconds against Houston (playoffs), and 2.59 seconds against Buffalo (playoffs).
If Liam “DUUUUUUUVAAAAL” Coen can cook up a quick passing game with Baker to shred Fangio’s Eagles, then we should trust Andy Reid and Mahomes to figure out something decent here.
Remember, the Chiefs are on their fourth left tackle this season, and incredibly, they will start a fifth different left tackle in their fifth Super Bowl in the Mahomes era. It’s guard Joe Thuney, who is doing a solid job, but he’s also getting help from Mahomes making an effort to get the ball out faster the last month.
The vaunted 2022 Eagles had 70 sacks and were noted for their pass rush. This year’s group is more notable for its coverage holding up as the pass rush is led by 8.0 sacks from Josh Sweat, and Jalen Carter from the inside leads the team with 23 pressures. It’s not the same caliber of pass rush.
But if there is one matchup that could derail the three-peat for the Chiefs here, it would be the Eagles wising up and putting Carter on left guard Mike Caliendo, who is struggling to fill in for Thuney sliding over from guard to tackle. Why keep putting Carter on a very good guard like Trey Smith on the right side when you can attack their weakness in Caliendo?
We talk about teams busting out new schemes and strategies for the Super Bowl, and this would be an excellent move by Fangio to play Carter on the opposite guard. Does that force Reid to move Thuney back to guard and get veteran D.J. Humphries into the game at left tackle?
Reshuffling the offensive line in a Super Bowl should trigger PTSD in Chiefs fans after Super Bowl LV, but it is a major story to watch here. However, if things go the way they have for the season for Philly and the for the last month for the Chiefs, then they should be able to survive with Thuney at left tackle and just try moving the pocket for Mahomes to stay away from Carter.
This one is probably not going to be a 38-35 game, but that might depend on which version of Jalen Hurts shows up in the other key matchup.
Key Matchup: Jalen Hurts vs. Steve Spagnuolo’s Blitzes
With so much talk about Patrick Mahomes and Saquon Barkley this week, let’s not forget about Jalen Hurts, the other quarterback in this matchup who had a big game (374 total yards and 4 total touchdowns) in Super Bowl 57. But it’s the poorly designed run where he lost a fumble for a touchdown in the second quarter that marred his night.
Two years later, Hurts gets his shot at redemption against Steve Spagnuolo’s defense. Here are some interesting stats for Hurts worth knowing for this matchup:
- The Eagles are 9-0 when Hurts passes for 200 yards this season.
- Hurts’ most passing yards in a regular season game: 387 yards vs. 2021 Chiefs.
- Hurts’ most passing yards in a playoff game: 304 yards vs. 2022 Chiefs.
- Super Bowl LIX is in New Orleans where Hurts played in Week 3 – he threw for a season-high 311 yards in the Superdome.
- In the 2023 meeting with the Chiefs, Hurts had the second-highest pressure rate (39.3%) of his career for a full game (source: Pro Football Reference).
- Jalen Hurts is 0-3 in the playoffs when he’s blitzed at least 15 times and 5-0 when he’s blitzed fewer than 15 times (source: Pro Football Reference).
- Hurts has taken 21 sacks against the blitz, the third most this year (source: NFL Pro).
- Hurts holds the ball for an average of 2.86 seconds when blitzed, the fifth-longest time (source: NFL Pro).
- Hurts also has the highest CPOE (+8.3%) and is No. 6 in EPA/dropback (+0.22) when blitzed this season (source: NFL Pro).
- Hurts is ranked No. 21 in EPA/dropback (-0.44) when under pressure this season (source: NFL Pro).
- Chiefs corner Trent McDuffie has played in 52 games, and he has 3 games with more than 4 blitzes: 2023 Jaguars (8), 2023 Eagles (8), and 2022 Eagles (7).
- McDuffie had 2.0 sacks against Hurts in 2023 and is credited with a forced fumble in Super Bowl 57.
That last part about Hurts’ overall success against the blitz but possibly some struggles with blitzes from defensive backs could be huge in this matchup as Spagnuolo isn’t afraid to send his best corner (McDuffie) in the big moments like on 4th-and-5 against Buffalo in the AFC Championship Game.
We have already seen McDuffie blitz on the biggest defensive snap in regulation in last year’s Super Bowl against the 49ers. This forced the 49ers to go for a field goal with almost a full 2:00 left.
This could be the chess match of the game as the Eagles have to decide if they want to lean on Barkley, but I think they may have a better shot if they let Hurts throw the ball more on early downs and take advantage of Kansas City’s blitzing and man coverage with their superior talent at wide receiver and tight end.
Including the playoffs, the Eagles have called a pass on 44.7% of their 1st and 2nd down plays this season, the lowest rate in the NFL (source: NFL Pro). If Spags sells out to stop the run, they may need to call more passes and play-action passes to keep them honest.
Hurts’ passing yardage prop is set to 211.5 yards, but it feels like that needs to go over if the Eagles are going to win this game. But one thing we know about Hurts is that he’s unlikely to fail on the Tush Push the way the Chiefs stopped Josh Allen and Buffalo three times in the AFC Championship Game.
But the Eagles need to trust his arm and his legs in the open field (scrambles) more in this game. Hurts will attempt to join Len Dawson, Bob Griese, and John Elway as the only quarterbacks to win a Super Bowl after losing their first attempt.
Only Hurts gets to do it against the same team that beat him last time.
Will the Chiefs Keep Up in the Running Game?
We touched on this earlier this week in the Saquon Barkley piece, but it’s worth restating that the Chiefs have outrushed the Eagles in three straight meetings.
Granted, Barkley is a better runner than Miles Sanders and D’Andre Swift, but his playoff production has become very reliant on 60-yard touchdown runs, and how many of those can one player possibly break off in one season? He’s already done it seven times this year, three more than any other player in a season in NFL history.
The Chiefs have an above-average run defense that was more elite earlier this season. There is no denying the numbers have slipped down the stretch here. In fact, it’s one of the few trends in this matchup that strongly favor the Eagles’ rushing offense:
- In Week 1, the Chiefs held new Baltimore running back Derrick Henry to 46 yards while quarterback Lamar Jackson ran aggressively 16 times for 122 yards.
- After that game, the Chiefs did not allow a single running back to reach 60 rushing yards until Sincere McCormick (that’s a real player for the Raiders) had 64 yards in Week 13.
- No biggie, but two weeks later, Cleveland’s Jerome Ford broke off a 62-yard touchdown run and finished with 84 yards.
- Two weeks later in Pittsburgh, Najee Harris (74 yards) and Jaylen Warren (71 yards) combined for 145 rushing yards, but it was overlooked because the Chiefs only allowed 10 points.
- In the divisional round, Joe Mixon (Texans) rushed for 88 yards and a touchdown, the most yards the Chiefs have allowed to one back this season.
- In the AFC Championship Game, James Cook (Bills) had a 33-yard run (second-longest run allowed by Chiefs all year) on his way to 85 yards on 13 carries with people wondering why he didn’t get more touches late.
So, the Chiefs didn’t allow a running back to hit 60 yards until Black Friday, and it’s happened six times since. They didn’t give up 85 yards rushing to a running back until the playoffs when Mixon and Cook have both done so.
It’s not that alarming when you’re not allowing many points like the Chiefs, but it is fair to say this hasn’t been trending in the right direction with a tough matchup against Barkley up next.
However, the Chiefs have yet to allow a 90-yard rusher in 18 playoff games under Spagnuolo. Leonard Fournette came the closest with 89 yards in Super Bowl 55. Also, if any team is prepared to withstand a homerun (or two) from Barkley while mostly containing him on his other runs and still winning the game, it’s these Chiefs:
- Since 2018, the Chiefs are 46-23 (.667) when getting outrushed by their opponent – no other team has own more than 44.9% of such games.
- Since 2018, the Chiefs are 24-14 (.632) when outrushed by 50+ yards – no other team has won more than 34.8% of such games.
- Since 2018, the Chiefs are 6-6 (.500) when outrushed by 100+ yards – no other team has won more than 40% of such games (6-5 with Mahomes playing too).
The other reason not to be overly concerned with Barkley and the Eagles’ running game is that the Chiefs should be able to get some decent production on the ground too between Kareem Hunt, Isiah Pacheco, potential gadget plays for Xavier Worthy’s speed that we haven’t seen all year, and of course Mahomes will have the green light to run with everything on the line.
The Eagles defend the run with a lightbox (fewer than seven defenders) 69.6% of the time this season, 11 percentage points higher than any other defense, and it’s closer to 76% in the playoffs. This is unusually high for the league, but Fangio-coached defenses have always been top-five at this.
The Chiefs may not have an elite running game, but if you give Reid and Mahomes an extra week to cook something up, it’d be a surprise if the Chiefs didn’t clear 110 team rushing yards in this game. They have the second-lowest stuffed rate against light boxes this year, and they rank in the top 10 or better in EPA/rush and success rate on such plays.
This is not a matchup of a dominant running offense and elite defense against a one-man show at quarterback. The Chiefs can run the ball enough and play impressive defense too.
A Tight End Show in Super Bowl 59?
No tight end has ever been named Super Bowl MVP. That comes as a surprise if only because of how many of these games Travis Kelce and Rob Gronkowski, the best to ever do it, have on their resumes.
However, it’s hard to upstage Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady at quarterback. Those guys will usually get the nod for these awards, but Super Bowl 59 could be a matchup where the tight ends shine.
The Chiefs allowed the most receiving yards to tight ends this regular season, but they weren’t tested enough in that regard by the Texans and Bills in the playoffs. Dalton Schultz had a decent game, but Dalton Kincaid failed to come up with the crucial 4th-and-5 catch at the end of the AFC Championship Game.
The Eagles need to get Dallas Goedert involved, and he’s been very good for the last month. He had 85 yards in the NFC Championship Game against Washington. He had 60 yards in Super Bowl 57 against the Chiefs two years ago. He missed the 2023 matchup.
Coincidentally, Goedert had his best-receiving game in his career in New Orleans this year when he had 10 catches for 170 yards (both career highs). Maybe he can light it up again in the dome against the Chiefs.
As for Kelce, it’s been a wild season for the 35-year-old legend. There are weeks where he looks as good as ever like in the divisional round when he had 117 yards and a touchdown against the Texans, including the longest catch of his decorated playoff career (49 yards) that was largely YAC.
But then Kelce’s had four games where he didn’t break 20 yards, including both Buffalo games. He had two grabs for 19 yards last time out.
In eight games against a Vic Fangio defense, Kelce did have games against Denver with 142 and 136 yards. But he also didn’t break 35 yards in the other three matchups in 2020-21. He faced Fangio’s Miami defense twice last year, and he had 14 yards in Germany and 71 in the freezing-cold playoff game when the Dolphins were injured and tried to blitz Mahomes.
Kelce has been up and down against the Eagles the last three years. They held him to 23 yards in the 2021 meeting. He had 81 yards and an early touchdown in Super Bowl 57, but he didn’t do much damage after the opening quarter. In last year’s game, he had 44 yards and a touchdown, but he lost a crucial fumble in the red zone on a rainy night.
A reason people have high hopes for a big Kelce night Sunday is because Washington’s Zach Ertz caught 11-of-16 targets for 104 yards in Philadelphia last time out. They seemed to be giving him those plays all day long and just waiting for the Commanders to fumble the ball back.
Another thought is linebacker Oren Burks tried to step up for the 49ers last Super Bowl when Dre Greenlaw tore his Achilles in the second quarter. The Chiefs picked on him for 7-of-7 passing for 46 yards. Now he’s trying to step up for the Eagles, who lost a leading tackler in Nakobe Dean for the season.
Since taking over in Week 17, Burks has allowed 23 catches on 25 targets for 140 yards. If he doesn’t give up any big plays, the Eagles can live with that. But it will be interesting to see if the Chiefs pick on him again.
Also, the bye week should help those 35-year-old legs for Kelce. He’s attempting to become the oldest leading receiver on a Super Bowl-winning team in NFL history. That role was supposed to switch to Rashee Rice this year, but obviously a torn ACL in Week 4 changed that plan. Kelce led the team again with 97 catches for 823 yards.
It does not sound like this will be his final game either regardless of what happens. But yes, the possibility of him proposing to Taylor Swift from the podium if the Chiefs win can’t be discredited.
Plot to Follow: The Turnover Battle
Turnovers have been a bigger story than usual this season and into the postseason. The Chiefs are the only team to win a playoff game this year after losing the turnover battle, going minus-1 against Buffalo. They made up for it by stopping the Bills on fourth down multiple times, which doesn’t count as a turnover (interception or fumble).
The Chiefs also survived that game despite Buffalo recovering all five fumbles in the game. Kansas City’s lost fumble on a zone-read handoff between Mahomes and Isiah Pacheco was the Chiefs’ first turnover since Week 11, snapping their 8-game streak without a turnover, which is the all-time NFL record.
There’s some real history on the line here with turnovers that can go multiple ways.
We could see the 2024 Chiefs play a sixth game this season where neither team turns the ball over. They already own the single-season record (playoffs included) for that with five games.
Mahomes has won his last nine starts in games where the Chiefs failed to force a turnover on defense. That’s not verified as the NFL record, but it probably is and possibly by a wide margin. He’s 7-0 this season if the Chiefs don’t get a takeaway, and that is historic.
Since 2018, the Chiefs are the only team in the NFL with a winning record (25-19, 56.8%) when they lose the turnover battle. They win 70.1% of the time (61-26) when it’s neutral or negative, the only team with a winning record.
Since 2018, the Chiefs (46-3, 93.9%) and Eagles (44-4, 91.7%) have the best records in the NFL when they win the turnover battle. That includes an active 37-game winning streak for the Chiefs going back to 2019.
Can the Eagles avoid turning the ball over? Hurts’ fumble was the only giveaway in Super Bowl 57 and that was a big one since it was returned for a touchdown, the only return touchdown the Chiefs have in 20 playoff games in the Mahomes era.
The 2024 Eagles are +10 in turnover differential in the postseason, an absurd mark when you consider they have 10 takeaways, no giveaways, and they are +6 in fumble recoveries as they are very good at punching the ball out.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs have not forced a turnover in three straight games, and they have never had a 4-game streak in franchise history. The Eagles have not turned it over in five straight games. One more turnover-free game for Philly would tie them for the third-longest streak in NFL history.
Is something going to give here? Out of 118 teams to reach the Super Bowl, only the 2013 Broncos finished the entire postseason without a takeaway, and they were smashed 43-8 by the Seahawks in Super Bowl 48.
Finally, all 58 Super Bowl winners have finished with at least 3 takeaways in the postseason. So, either the Eagles are about to have a nightmare night of turnover regression hitting their offense, or the Chiefs are going to have to make history and win this game without winning the turnover battle again.
What If It’s a Close Game?
Nineteen of the last 21 Super Bowls have been within one score in the fourth quarter, so it’s been a very safe bet that we’ll get a close finish regardless of how the game starts. In fact, the Chiefs have trailed by double digits in all four of their Super Bowls and still came back to win three of them.
If it’s a close game, you have to give the Chiefs the edge, but let’s not act like the Eagles can’t close it out too:
- The 2024 Chiefs are 13-0 in close games and one of two teams to not blow a fourth-quarter lead.
- The 2024 Eagles are 9-2 in close games with blown leads against the Falcons and Commanders in games where Barkley and Smith dropped passes late that could have iced it.
- The Chiefs are 8-0 at game-winning drive opportunities this season, and a ninth would be the new single-season record for game-winning drives.
- The Eagles are 4-2 at game-winning drive opportunities this season.
- The Chiefs have won 17 straight games decided by one score, four more than the previous NFL record.
Fittingly, Mahomes (25-19) and Hurts (10-10) are the only active quarterbacks with a .500 or better record at fourth-quarter comeback opportunities. They also have the best records at game-winning drive opportunities.
People love pointing to all the close calls the Chiefs have had this season, but the Eagles have done it too, and not always against good competition:
- The Browns (with Deshaun Watson) were tied in the fourth quarter in Philadelphia and were 3 yards away from a game-tying touchdown in the final minutes of a 20-16 loss.
- The Eagles were up 22-0 on Jacksonville and up 28-16 with half a quarter left, and Trevor Lawrence was still 13 yards away from a go-ahead touchdown before throwing a terrible interception on first down with 1:38 left in a 28-23 loss.
- Carolina’s Bryce Young threw a perfect 32-yard touchdown pass to Xavier Legette in the final minute, but the rookie (who’s gained fame for eating raccoons) dropped the ball in a 22-16 loss.
- In the divisional round of the playoffs, the Eagles took a 28-15 lead with 4:36 left after a long Barkley touchdown, but the Rams were still 13 yards away from the end zone with a chance to win in the final minute before Matthew Stafford took a bad sack and the Rams turned it over on downs in a 28-22 loss.
Those were all home games too. Then of course we noted the dropped passes by Barkley and DeVonta Smith in losses, but don’t forget the defense quickly gave up game-winning touchdown drives in the final minute to Kirk Cousins and Jayden Daniels.
If you give Mahomes that chance with a three-peat on the line or face him 13 yards away from the end zone in the closing seconds, he’s likely going to succeed.
A Special Teams Note
Special teams tend to get overlooked in a game like this, but the Chiefs should have an edge there, and they got some big plays from special teams in their last two Super Bowl wins if you recall Kadarius Toney’s big return against Philly and the botched punt return by the 49ers and blocked extra point by Leo Chenal (he’s skilled at that).
Harrison Butker and Jake Elliott have both been very reliable kickers for their teams, but you can argue they’ve both seen better days than how they’ve played in 2024. Butker missed some time with injury, and Elliott is 1-for-8 on field goals of 50-plus yards.
If it comes down to a kick, you trust Butker more than Elliott right now.
Super Bowl LIX Prediction Time
It is usually easy for me to create doubt in the Chiefs in matchups like this. The Eagles have the more explosive, balanced offense, a better offensive line, better skill players, better coordinators than they had two years ago, the field should be better quality, and their defense is better at creating turnovers.
Throw in it being Saquon’s birthday and the Kansas City run defense trending in the wrong direction. Throw in the potential for a referee screw-up – Ron Torbert is the lead official – to appease the silly conspiracy crowd that thinks it’s rigged for the Chiefs, and yeah, that should be enough doubt. No team’s ever three-peated for good reasons.
Yet I still feel oddly confident that the Chiefs are going to do it and win this game. They have almost 20 players who will have played in all three Super Bowls and can say they are the only team to three-peat. Linebacker Ken Norton Jr. is the only NFL player with a Super Bowl three-peat, and he had to leave the Cowboys for the 49ers in 1994 to do it.
To come this far for history, why not finish the job? It won’t be easy, but it never is with this team. They would be advised to not fall behind by double digits again, but one thing about the 2024 Chiefs, their starters have never trailed by more than 11 points this season, the only team that can say that.
Hopefully, it’s a close game and we get a better ending than two years ago. But I think the Chiefs pull it off by one score, and we’ll be back Friday with our best bets and parlays for this one.
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