Who’s going to win the NBA MVP?

The MVP race in the 2024/25 NBA season has been a thrill to watch. In one corner, you have Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the slick Canadian maestro leading the Oklahoma City Thunder to historic heights. In the other, Nikola Jokić, the Serbian sorcerer weaving triple-double magic for the Denver Nuggets. The 2024-25 NBA MVP race is a two-man jam session, and the league’s biggest award hangs in the balance. Who’s walking away with the Michael Jordan Trophy? Let’s break it down.

This isn’t just a numbers game—though, oh boy, the numbers are spicy. It’s about narrative, impact, and the slippery definition of “value.” SGA’s Thunder are a juggernaut, rewriting record books with a 68-win pace and a point differential that screams dominance. Jokić, meanwhile, is a one-man symphony, elevating a banged-up Nuggets squad to the playoffs with stats that make basketball historians blush. Both are playing at career peaks, but only one can claim the crown. So, grab a seat, crank the volume, and let’s dive into the great MVP debate of 2025.

The Case for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: The Thunder’s Scoring Savant

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander isn’t just having a season—he’s having the season. The dude’s averaging 32.7 points per game, snagging the NBA scoring title as the first Canadian to do so. He’s not chucking shots like a kid in a driveway either; SGA’s efficiency is surgical, with 51.9% from the field and a true shooting percentage that hums along at 64%. He’s got the most 20-, 30-, 40-, and 50-point games in the league, including a 54-point masterpiece against the Utah Jazz in January. This isn’t just scoring; it’s art. Think Basquiat with a basketball, painting buckets in ways that defy geometry.

But it’s not just about points. SGA’s leading the Thunder to what might be the greatest regular season in NBA history. OKC’s 68-win pace puts them in the same breath as the 1995-96 Bulls and 2015-16 Warriors, and their +12.6 point differential is the best ever recorded. Ever. That’s not a typo.

The Thunder are outscoring opponents like they’re playing on rookie mode, and SGA’s the one holding the controller. He’s the engine of a team that destroyed the Western Conference, with a 13½-game lead over the No. 2 seed. Historically, players who lead the league in scoring and pilot the best team win MVP—eight of nine have, with Michael Jordan’s 1996-97 snub as the lone exception. SGA’s checking every box.

Two-Way Terror

Here’s where SGA’s case gets extra crispy: he’s not just an offensive juggernaut. The man’s a two-way monster. OKC boasts the league’s top defense, and SGA’s right in the thick of it, averaging 1.7 steals and 1.0 blocks per game while ranking top-five in defensive win shares. He’s not just guarding guards—he’s bullying wings, disrupting passing lanes, and even swatting shots at the rim. That’s SGA’s vibe: relentless, versatile, and clutch. His plus-918 raw plus-minus is the league’s best, 372 points clear of anyone outside OKC. That’s not a stat; it’s a flex.

And let’s talk intangibles. SGA’s leadership is the secret sauce behind OKC’s vibes. At 26, he’s the calm center of a young, hungry squad, elevating guys like Jalen Williams and Luguentz Dort. Thunder coach Mark Daigneault says Shai’s all about the team, compartmentalising MVP chatter to focus on wins. That selflessness? It’s why OKC’s culture is bulletproof, even with Chet Holmgren missing 50 games and Hartenstein sidelined for stretches. SGA’s the tide that lifts all boats.

The Narrative Edge

Voter fatigue is real, folks. Jokić has three MVPs in the last four years, and some voters are itching for a fresh face. SGA’s never won, and his coronation feels overdue. ESPN’s final straw poll in April gave him 77 of 100 first-place votes, a landslide over Jokić’s 23. The betting odds are even more lopsided, with SGA at -4000 and Jokić at +1200. The narrative’s swinging hard: SGA’s the new king. Posts from fans and analysts—like Anthony Edwards calling SGA the MVP—only amplify the buzz. This isn’t just a campaign; it’s a movement.

The Case for Nikola Jokić: The Triple-Double Titan

If SGA’s season is art, Jokić’s is a damn sci-fi novel. The man’s averaging 29.6 points, 12.7 rebounds, and 10.2 assists, becoming just the third player ever to average a triple-double for a full season. His true shooting percentage? A ridiculous 66%, higher than SGA’s and more efficient than his own three MVP campaigns. Jokić is top-three in points, rebounds, assists, and steals, and he’s doing it with a playstyle that’s equal parts Einstein and Houdini. He’s not just breaking records; he’s inventing new ones.

Legendary!

Nikola Jokic joins Oscar Robertson and Russell Westbrook as the ONLY players to record an NBA regular season triple-double AVERAGE! pic.twitter.com/hJ4sIcAPy8

— 365Scores (@365Scores) April 12, 2025

Take March 8, when Jokić dropped the first 30-20-20 triple-double in NBA history (31 points, 21 rebounds, 22 assists) against Phoenix. Or April, when he poured in a career-high 61 points, 10 rebounds, and 10 assists in a double-overtime thriller against Minnesota. That’s not a stat line; it’s a fever dream. Jokić’s plus-507 on-court differential dwarfs Denver’s minus-206 when he’s off, projecting to a 50-win swing. SGA’s impact? A respectable +18 wins. Jokić’s fingerprints are all over Denver’s offence, which hums at 125.6 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor—best among players in 40+ games.

Not only he had a HISTORIC 30-20-20 triple double, but if you cut his game time in half, he had a triple double in each! 13 pts, 10 reb & 11 ast in the first 26:30 mins and 18 pts, 11 reb & 11 ast in the second 26:30 mins ?

Nikola Jokić ladies and gentlemen ? pic.twitter.com/Tx1FYTgfnw

— 365Scores (@365Scores) March 8, 2025

Carrying a Thin Roster

Context is everything, and Jokić’s got a hell of a story. Jamal Murray’s had a quiet year, Aaron Gordon missed 31 games, and Michael Porter Jr. sat out key stretches. Yet Jokić’s kept the Nuggets in the playoff hunt, finishing as the West’s fourth seed with a 50-32 record. His 34 triple-doubles are one more than the next three players combined, and he’s second in points in the paint, sixth in true shooting, and fourth in three-point percentage among high-volume shooters. Without Jokić, Denver’s net rating tanks to worse than league average; with him, they’re a top-10 offense. That’s value.

Jokić’s genius lies in his connectivity. He’s the ultimate team player, making everyone better—role players, bench guys, you name it. Denver’s top six three-man lineup combinations for offensive rating? All feature Jokić. He’s the hub of a system where no teammate is an All-Star, yet the Nuggets still bully teams inside, outrebound opponents, and rack up fast-break points.

The Underdog Myth

Jokić’s not sweating the MVP race. “I’m playing the best basketball of my life,” he said after a March win, shrugging off the hype. “If that’s enough, the guy deserves it.” That humility plays well, but don’t sleep on his case. Some voters see him as the underdog, trailing SGA in polls but dominating head-to-head matchups. In Denver’s 140-127 win over OKC on March 10, Jokić went for 35 points, 18 rebounds, and eight assists. The season series ended 2-2, but Jokić’s averages against OKC were a triple-double masterclass. Kevin Durant’s got his back, scoffing at the “underdog” label: “Jokić never is an underdog in any situation.”

Head-to-Head: The OKC-Denver Duels

Nothing spices up an MVP race like direct clashes, and SGA vs. Jokić delivered. Their four-game season series was a split, each team stealing one on the road. On March 9, SGA torched Denver for 40 points, five assists, and three blocks in a 127-103 Thunder rout. Jokić answered the next night, dropping 35 points, 18 rebounds, and eight assists in a Nuggets win. These games were less about one-upping each other and more about showcasing their unique superpowers: SGA’s explosive scoring and defensive grit versus Jokić’s playmaking and board-crashing dominance. The 2-2 tie feels poetic, leaving voters to pick their poison.

The Voter’s Dilemma: Defining “Value”

Here’s where it gets messy. MVP isn’t just about stats or wins—it’s about what “valuable” means. SGA’s case leans on team success and two-way play. His Thunder are historically great, and he’s the heartbeat of their attack and defense. But OKC’s depth—Holmgren, Williams, Dort, Caruso—means they’re still elite when SGA sits, outscoring opponents by 2.9 points per 100 possessions. That’s a double-edged sword: it shows SGA’s on a stacked squad, but it also hints he’s not the sole reason for their success.

Jokić’s case hinges on individual impact. Denver’s a disaster without him, and his triple-double barrage is unmatched in its efficiency and versatility. But the Nuggets’ fourth seed and 13 fewer wins than OKC hurt his narrative. Voters love winners, and SGA’s got the edge there. Plus, Jokić’s three MVPs invite fatigue, while SGA’s fresh face and OKC’s historic run feel like a story voters want to tell.

The X Factor: Momentum and Media

The court of public MVP opinion matters, and SGA’s got the megaphone. Never has the NBA seen a player with so much ‘aura’. ESPN’s straw polls, betting odds, and media chatter all tilt toward Shai. Jokić’s got his defenders—some call his season “the greatest offensive season of all time”—but the narrative’s leaning Thunder. SGA’s highlight dunks and OKC’s win total are sexier than Jokić’s quiet dominance. In a social media age, that’s a big deal.

Nikola Jokic has joined an elite group of NBA legends as he became only the 9th player to win the MVP award at least 3 times! ??? pic.twitter.com/T29nazTJ0S

— 365Scores (@365Scores) May 9, 2024

The Verdict: Who Wins?

So, who’s hoisting the Michael Jordan Trophy? It’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and here’s why: his season marries individual brilliance with team dominance in a way that’s impossible to ignore. Leading the league in scoring, anchoring the NBA’s best defense, and piloting a 68-win team that’s rewriting history? That’s an MVP resume. His two-way play and leadership edge out Jokić’s unreal triple-double campaign, especially when you factor in OKC’s absurd win total and SGA’s narrative momentum. Voters love a new story, and SGA’s is electric.

That said, Jokić’s case is a masterpiece. His stats are historic, his impact is seismic, and he’s doing it with less help. If Denver had nabbed a top-two seed, he might’ve snagged his fourth MVP. As it stands, he’s the runner-up in a race so close it deserves its own Netflix doc. Both guys are playing basketball from another planet, but SGA’s got the slight MVP edge—call it 51-49.

In the end, this debate isn’t just about 2025. It’s about two superstars redefining what MVP means. SGA and Jokić are the present and future of the NBA, and we’re lucky to witness their duel. So, raise a glass to both, because no matter who wins, basketball’s the real victor. Now, let’s see how they settle this in the playoffs.

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By Nicky Helfgott – NickyHelfgott1 on X (Twitter)

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